In the early trading session on October 27, 2025, domestic futures led by the main contracts displayed mixed trends. Live pig prices surged over 2%, while international copper and container shipping rates in Europe rose nearly 2%. Other commodities, including eggs, Shanghai copper, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil saw gains exceeding 1%. Conversely, red dates and Shanghai gold experienced declines of over 1%.

Live Pig Market: Continuous Policy and Supply Challenges with Expanding Price Gaps Supporting Price Recovery 1. This week, domestic live pig prices continued to rise, with increases more significant in the latter part of the week compared to the earlier days. As of October 23, the national average price for live pigs was 11.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week. In Henan, the benchmark trading area, pig prices reached 11.88 yuan/kg, up by 0.6 yuan/kg. Early in the week, after hitting a low, the farming sector showed reluctance to sell at low prices, leading to a slow upward trend; however, in the later part of the week, due to low restocking costs, secondary fattening entered the market, causing a portion of pigs that were supposed to go to slaughter to be retained, leading to increased pressure on slaughterhouses, which had to raise purchase prices, thus driving the price increase for live pigs. 2. Data from Zhuochuang indicates that on October 17, the sale price of breeding sows was 1642 yuan/head, down 22 yuan/head from the previous month. 3. As of October 23, the average price of piglets was 165 yuan/head, decreasing by 7 yuan/head from last week. Recently, while piglet prices have fallen, they are stabilizing in the near term. On the supply side, the previous high release of sow capacity has allowed for plentiful weaned piglet supply. On the demand side, the rebound in fat pig prices has somewhat revived restocking sentiments in the downstream supply side, but increased demand for low-priced restocking has led to declines in high prices and stabilizations at lower prices. 4. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, by the third quarter of 2025, a total of 52.992 million live pigs were marketed, higher than the same period last year. Current published data indicates that the cumulative market volume has increased compared to last year, continuing to exert pressure on pig prices from the supply side. 5. This week, trading variations were reported across provinces. As of October 23, Zhuochuang's sample data showed an average weight of live pigs at 124.75 kg/head, an increase of 0.08 kg/head from the previous week. Following the rise in pig prices, price differentials for fat pigs have widened, encouraging farmers to increase weights, with many regions in Northeast China conducting secondary fattening; thus, the pace of live pig listings has slowed, resulting in a slight increase in average trading weight. In contrast, trading weights in parts of East China, North China, and Southwest regions experienced slight declines. 6. Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that pork imports stood at 80,000 tons in September, remaining stable compared to the previous month. 7. According to Wind data, as of October 15, the government announced a pig-to-grain ratio of 5.22. 8. Zhuochuang noted that as of October 23, the profit from self-farming reached a loss of 183 yuan/head, an improvement of 83 yuan from the previous week. The loss for purchased piglets was 319 yuan/head, a decrease of 89 yuan from last week. Feed costs have shown a weak trend with lower prices. Simultaneously, live pig spot prices have rebounded from low levels, and farming profits have seen recovery compared to last week, although current levels of loss persist. 9. This week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises increased. As of October 24, data from Zhuochuang revealed operating rates for sample slaughter enterprises at 38.69%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from last week. Regular outflows from farming, coupled with decreasing temperatures leading to higher pork demand, have fueled an increase in orders for slaughterhouses, supporting the rise in operating rates. 10. Live pig futures exhibited mixed results in October. At the start of the month, pig prices fell rapidly, with the main 2601 contract leading the decline, followed by the 2603 contract. November contracts had the lowest prices, followed by March contracts; the bearish sentiment reflected expectations of high live pig inventory levels in the cash market. Mid-week, when pig prices stabilized, the price differentials for fat pigs expanded, boosting fattening incentives in Northeast China, which alleviated some sale volumes in the cash market, thereby supporting pig prices. On Friday, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released a report analyzing the supply and demand situation of agricultural products, indicating a decline in pork imports with increased consumption, suggesting a rebound in live pig and pork prices in the fourth quarter. The focus remains on how policy adjustments will impact the live pig market's supply and demand dynamics and sentiments.