铜价在特朗普总统提议征收50%高额关税后跃居市场中心。周二，板块压力加剧，自由港麦克莫兰和南方铜业双双遭遇分析师评级下调。这些铜业巨头是否涨势过猛？自由港麦克莫兰明显领跑，年初至今涨幅达15%，远超南方铜业2025年的表现。其相对强势的关键驱动在于黄金敞口——后者在宏观不确定性中飙升，为股价注入强劲动力。
技术面暗示买入需谨慎：自由港股票可能回补6月25日形成的42美元附近缺口，恰在6月26日7%暴涨前夕，当日成交量激增至日均两倍。上行亮点是看涨金叉：50日简单移动均线成功上穿200日SMA，标志动量初现。值得注意，200日SMA自6月初趋平，扭转此前下行趋势，昭示长期前景改善。
周线图揭示更深远风险：2025年初以来，40美元关口成为多空拉锯焦点——1月至3月及5月屡次压制股价，但6月强势突破后，该水平或已转化为坚实支撑。投资者应紧盯周收盘价：若跌破40美元，便是明确的离场警示。
过于强劲的涨势，有时反成软肋。
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