Treasury yields remained largely unchanged on Tuesday as market participants positioned themselves ahead of a wave of upcoming economic data releases that could offer fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a key benchmark for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card rates, held steady at 4.7021%. The longer-dated 30-year bond yield also stayed flat at 5.2297%, while the 2-year yield, which typically tracks expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term rate decisions, remained unchanged at 4.2421%. A basis point equals 0.01%, or one-hundredth of a percentage point, and bond yields move inversely to prices.
Monday's session saw borrowing costs ease following remarks from two senior Treasury Department officials indicating that the U.S. Treasury may tap its nearly $1 trillion General Account (TGA) to help fund an expanded buyback program. The officials did not specify the amount of TGA funds that would be allocated to support the buyback operations.
The bond market has been under the spotlight since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rolled out a historic intervention strategy last week. Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve Chair's keynote speech at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium this Friday.
According to Mabrouk Chetouana, global market strategy head at Natixis Investment Management: "There's no question that the Fed chair's comments will continue to echo the tone set in the previous two FOMC meetings. The void left in guiding market expectations after Jerome Powell's departure remains very much present."
"As such, this address could disappoint the market and potentially intensify the strain on the long end of the yield curve, which is already under substantial pressure."
Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—is due for release on Wednesday, alongside the second-quarter GDP estimate. Investors are parsing this data to better assess the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Prior to that, Tuesday's calendar features the ADP weekly employment change figures and new home sales data.