Nickel futures market: With improved macro sentiment and a broad rally in the commodity sector, LME nickel closed up 1.27% overnight. The latest LME nickel settlement was at $19,165, an increase of $240 per tonne or 1.27% from the previous session, with a trading volume of 5,898 lots. In the domestic market, SHFE nickel's latest night session settlement was at 147,440 yuan per tonne, up 1,290 yuan or 0.88%.
LME nickel inventories as of May 13 were reported at 275,778 tonnes, a decrease of 996 tonnes from the previous day.
According to market analysis, SHFE nickel contracts opened mostly higher today. The main June 2606 contract opened at 146,900 yuan per tonne, up 750 yuan from yesterday's close. As of 9:15 AM, the June 2606 contract was quoted at 145,790 yuan per tonne, down 360 yuan. SHFE nickel experienced narrow-range fluctuations after a high open. Overnight, LME nickel followed the broader strength in global metals markets, moving in sync with the general commodity rally. This round of gains was primarily driven by multiple macro tailwinds: the IEA issued a significant report warning of a severe global oil market shortage persisting into the fourth quarter, directly pushing up metal mining and smelting costs; a strong rebound in U.S. tech stocks fueled expectations for increased demand for metals related to AI and new energy supply chains; and a slight fluctuation in the U.S. dollar index exerted limited pressure on dollar-denominated metals. Concurrently, the ongoing energy crisis in Peru has intensified concerns over global metal supply chain disruptions, attracting speculative capital. However, SHFE nickel retreated rapidly in early trading today as long-short battles intensified significantly. High inventory pressure, weak downstream demand during the off-season, and concentrated profit-taking by previous long positions collectively constitute the core bearish factors for the current market.
Current Nickel Supply-Demand Dynamics and Cost Support The nickel market currently presents a complex picture of "expected supply contraction coexisting with actual oversupply." On the supply side, Indonesia's nickel ore mining quota for 2026 is set to be significantly reduced by 31%-34% to 2.5-2.6 billion tonnes, with the quota for the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, slashed by 71.4%, indicating strong expectations for long-term supply contraction. In the short term, however, nickel pig iron and nickel sulfate production capacity continues to be released, keeping market supply relatively ample. On the demand side, the stainless steel industry accounts for approximately 70% of total nickel consumption, maintaining stable but slowing growth. Demand from the new energy battery sector is growing rapidly, but competition from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technology is exerting some pressure on high-nickel ternary batteries. Cost-wise, the ongoing decline in nickel ore grades is pushing up smelting costs, providing solid bottom-line support for nickel prices.
Nickel Price Forecast for May 14 Nickel prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations today. The forecast range for domestic nickel prices is 145,000-147,000 yuan per tonne, while LME nickel is expected to trade between $18,900 and $19,100 per tonne. Operationally, it is advised that investors remain cautious, focusing on the evening's U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims data, as well as changes in LME inventories. Barring any major negative macro developments, the downside for nickel prices is limited by cost support, but high inventories and weak demand will constrain their upside potential.