May 28th: In the previous trading session on Wednesday, May 27th, hopes for a swift end to the conflict dimmed following a U.S. "defensive strike" on Iran. Market expectations for monetary policy tightening to curb rising inflation grew, propelling the U.S. dollar index to extend its rebound. Consequently, international gold prices encountered resistance, retreated, and closed lower. Although prices found a bottom and rebounded near the support of the 200-day moving average, the overall trend remains within the lower Bollinger Band channel. The bearish crossover of the 60-day and 100-day moving averages overhead suggests short-term weakness persists. If the rebound fails to break through the 60-day moving average, subsequent sessions could see a breach of the 200-day moving average support, potentially driving prices further down towards the $4100 level.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4512.41 per ounce, initially reaching an intraday high of $4537.32 before encountering resistance and beginning a sustained decline. The downward pressure intensified during the latter part of the European session and into the U.S. session, with prices falling consecutively to record an intraday low of $4401.18. A subsequent bottoming rebound saw the metal close at $4455.88. The daily range was $136.24, resulting in a net loss of $56.53, or 1.25%.
Looking ahead to Thursday, May 28th, international gold opened with a slightly weaker bias. The U.S. dollar index continued its recent strong rebound momentum, exerting downward pressure on gold. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical situation shows no clear signs of resolution, keeping gold prices exposed to risk. This suggests continued potential for further corrective pressure on gold in the near term.
Market focus today will be on several key U.S. economic data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims for the period ending May 23rd, the annual rate of the April Core PCE Price Index, the monthly rate of April Personal Spending, the revised annualized quarterly rate for Q1 Real GDP, and the monthly rate of April Durable Goods Orders. Overall market expectations for this data are mixed. However, based on yesterday's price action, today's movement is anticipated to be choppy or potentially feature another bottoming rebound.
From a technical perspective: On the monthly chart, gold prices are trading below the 5-month moving average, indicating a weak trend. A closing break below the support of the 10-month moving average at $4370 could open the door for a further decline towards the $4100 or even $3800 levels. Conversely, a close back above the 5-month moving average at $4800 could signal a restart of the bullish cycle. Until such a decisive move, expect range-bound trading.
On the weekly chart, prices are currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band and the 30-week moving average. Oscillators also continue to signal bearish momentum, pointing to a weak outlook. This suggests a risk of further declines towards the $4100 and $3800 levels. However, a move back above the middle Bollinger Band would invalidate this view, allowing for a resumption of the bullish trend towards new highs.
On the daily chart, gold maintains its recent pattern of moving within a descending channel. While it has currently touched support at the 200-day moving average and the channel's lower boundary, hinting at a potential stabilization and rebound to test the $4630 area, the bearish crossover of the 60-day and 100-day moving averages overhead remains a headwind. Therefore, if prices encounter renewed resistance at the 60-day moving average or decisively break below the 200-day moving average support, further declines towards the $4100 and potentially sub-$3800 levels are likely.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference (specific entry/exit points subject to real-time account notifications): Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4425/4400 or $4375. Resistance levels are around $4485 or $4510. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $73.20 or $72.30. Resistance levels are around $75.65 or $77.40.