Abstract

Trupanion will report quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview highlights expected revenue growth, margin trends, and adjusted EPS trajectory, synthesizing company guidance and market commentary to gauge how subscription momentum and unit economics may translate into bottom-line progress.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to Trupanion delivering this quarter revenue of $0.38 billion, projecting year-over-year growth of 11.96%, with EBIT estimated at $6.73 million and EPS forecast at $0.16. Forecast commentary implies continued improvement in gross profit margin and progress in net profitability; adjusted EPS is expected to expand year over year from a low base, supported by underwriting discipline and operating leverage. The main business is expected to remain anchored by the subscription business with resilient pet enrollment and pricing underpinning revenue stability and better margin cadence into the quarter. The most promising segment is the subscription business, given its scale, retention characteristics, and improving contribution margins, expected to sustain double-digit revenue growth off a $0.25 billion prior-quarter base.

Last Quarter Review

Trupanion’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $0.37 billion, a gross profit margin of 22.31%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $5.87 million, a net profit margin of 1.60%, and adjusted EPS of $0.13, with year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EPS. A notable highlight was the upside on profitability versus internal and external expectations, as EBIT of $5.86 million exceeded estimates and reflected improved unit economics. Main business performance remained centered on the subscription business at $0.25 billion revenue, while other business contributed $0.11 billion; the subscription base showed healthy momentum with double-digit year-over-year revenue growth that supported consolidated top-line expansion.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Subscription revenue trajectory and margin cadence

The subscription business is positioned to lead this quarter’s revenue, benefiting from consistent policyholder retention, disciplined pricing, and ongoing improvements in loss ratio management. With the prior quarter’s subscription revenue at $0.25 billion and total revenue of $0.37 billion, the segment’s scale provides operating leverage as administrative expenses grow slower than revenue. The key watch items this quarter are gross margin progression and net loss ratio trends as pricing actions work through cohorts; the forecast suggests that gross profit margin should hold near or improve from the prior quarter’s 22.31%, helping EBIT approach $6.73 million and supporting EPS of $0.16. If customer acquisition costs remain efficient and churn stays contained, the subscription engine should continue to compound revenue at a double‑digit pace while gradually lifting margins.

Most promising business: High-retention subscription cohorts and contribution margin expansion

The most promising growth pocket lies within high-retention subscription cohorts, where lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratios are improving as underwriting and pricing tighten. The previous quarter’s $0.25 billion subscription revenue base offers a foundation for compounding growth, and the forecasted 11.96% year-over-year revenue increase for the company implies continued momentum from this core. As price adjustments flow through renewals and vet cost inflation stabilizes, contribution margins for newer and mid‑vintage cohorts could widen, translating into incremental gross profit. The cadence of these improvements is critical for scaling EBIT and EPS; successful execution here can produce sequential operating leverage even if headline revenue growth moderates toward low double digits.

Stock price drivers this quarter: Underwriting discipline, claims inflation, and capital efficiency

Three factors are likely to influence Trupanion’s share price around this print. The first is underwriting discipline evidenced by loss ratio and gross margin outcomes; even modest gross margin expansion from 22.31% can materially influence bottom line given the forecast EBIT of $6.73 million. The second is claims inflation versus pricing—investors will scrutinize how current claims costs track relative to premium yields; a favorable spread supports the net profit margin, which was 1.60% last quarter. The third is capital efficiency, particularly around acquisition spend and operating expenses; maintaining a measured pace of growth while protecting cohort economics can bolster confidence in the forecast EPS of $0.16 and the path toward structurally higher margins. Clear commentary on cohort performance and expense control could be a near‑term catalyst.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the prevailing view tilts constructive, with a majority of analysts emphasizing improving unit economics, stabilizing claims trends, and disciplined pricing as catalysts for revenue and earnings progress. Bullish voices highlight the company’s ability to translate double‑digit revenue growth into steadily rising gross profit and EBIT, pointing to the last quarter’s EBIT outperformance and the current forecast of $6.73 million as validation of improved operating leverage. Analysts also note that subscription churn remains manageable and that price adjustments are gaining traction in offsetting veterinary cost inflation, which supports the EPS outlook of $0.16 and the potential for further year‑over‑year expansion.

In the majority view, the risks are increasingly well‑framed rather than escalating: while claims inflation and competitive pricing remain variables, recent results showed a 22.31% gross margin and a 1.60% net margin, suggesting that incremental improvements can accrue meaningfully to profits. The constructive stance is reinforced by expectations for subscription-driven growth to sustain an 11.96% year-over-year pace this quarter, with the company’s focus on underwriting rigor and expense discipline likely to further normalize margins. Overall, bullish analysts anticipate a quarter that demonstrates continued progress toward scalable profitability, with revenue around $0.38 billion and better cohort economics supporting both EBIT and adjusted EPS upside.