April 17 – In the previous trading session on Thursday (April 16), international gold prices initially rose but then retreated, closing nearly flat after failing to break through key resistance levels. Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, both sides maintained a firm stance, leaving open the possibility of renewed conflict. Additionally, better-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims data added downward pressure, suggesting short-term risks of further declines. However, with prices holding above the middle Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average, and with multiple moving averages providing support below, the bullish outlook remains favorable. Therefore, any pullback to these support levels may present buying opportunities, with targets set at the 60-day moving average near $4,920 and around $5,100.
In terms of price movement, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,794.51 per ounce, climbed to an intraday high of $4,838.14, then encountered resistance and retreated. The metal traded lower throughout the day, reaching a low of $4,772.97 during the U.S. session before stabilizing and entering consolidation. It ultimately closed at $4,790.44, essentially flat compared to Wednesday's close of $4,790.55.
Looking ahead to Friday (April 17), international gold opened with limited movement, supported by buying interest and expectations of renewed U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend. A prolonged ceasefire appears likely, which should support a rebound in gold prices and limit declines, leading to range-bound trading toward the week's end. Market participants should closely monitor the progress and outcome of weekend negotiations, as these will influence opening prices next week.
Although geopolitical tensions have temporarily eased, friction persists without a full resolution. The Strait remains blocked, keeping oil prices elevated. This sustained high oil price environment is expected to gradually fuel inflation, potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and thereby capping gold's upward momentum.
Market focus is shifting from short-term geopolitical concerns to the impact of prolonged friction. For gold, this transition may bring temporary and limited pressure, but the medium to long-term bullish outlook remains intact. If oil prices continue to strengthen, global recession risks could intensify, increasing expectations for rate cuts and enhancing gold's appeal. Should the Strait reopen, any oil price correction would likely be short-term, possibly offering a buying opportunity. Overall, gold's trend is evolving from a rapid bull run to a phase of gradual strengthening and oscillatory advances.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold closed above an ascending trendline in March, maintaining its bullish prospects. The current month's opening remains above this trendline, and as long as prices do not close below it, new highs remain achievable. On a weekly chart, gold retains upward momentum but faces resistance near the 10-week moving average. A failure to close above this level could lead to a correction toward $4,450. A successful breakout, however, could propel prices to new record highs.
On a daily chart, gold faced renewed resistance yesterday, with bullish momentum weakening as it failed to break above the 60-day moving average. Short-term correction risks persist, but multiple moving averages provide support below, suggesting a consolidative adjustment phase. Intraday trading strategies may consider buying near the 10-day or 100-day moving averages and selling near yesterday's high or the 60-day moving average resistance. A break above the 60-day moving average at $4,920 could open the path to $5,100, while failure may lead to a pullback, offering opportunities to buy on dips toward the 100-day or 144-day moving average support levels.
Real-time trading guidance will be provided based on live market conditions. Preliminary intraday reference levels are as follows, with exact entry and exit points subject to real-time updates: Gold: Support at $4,770 or $4,730; resistance at $4,845, $4,875, or $4,920. Silver: Support at $77.70 or $76.65; resistance at $80.60 or $82.15.