US Stock Futures Edge Lower Ahead of Key Economic Data; Goldman Warns of Further Selling

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US stock futures registered minor declines on Monday following a volatile week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above the 50,000-point milestone. Markets are bracing for a packed schedule of corporate earnings, inflation data, and the crucial monthly nonfarm payrolls report.

As of the latest update, Dow futures were down 0.06%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.33%.

On Friday, the three major US stock indices staged a collective rebound, recouping significant losses from earlier in the week. The prior market slump was triggered by a sell-off in the technology sector, with software stocks leading the decline. Bitcoin prices also experienced a sharp drop before partially recovering as investor risk aversion eased.

In the previous trading session, the 30-stock Dow Jones surged approximately 1,200 points, a gain of about 2.5%. After briefly touching the 50,000 level intraday for the first time, it closed firmly above that mark, a historic first. The S&P 500 index rose about 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained over 2%.

After falling below $61,000 on Thursday evening, Bitcoin prices recovered to above $70,000 on Friday. Software stocks like Salesforce also closed higher. Broadly, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF jumped 3.5%, marking its first daily gain since entering bear market territory late last month.

Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, commented, "Following an eight-day losing streak, buying interest finally returned to the software sector on Friday, providing a much-needed rebound for the tech segment, which had been approaching key support levels near the lows of last November. While this is a positive step, the broader technology sector remains range-bound unless it can break through the resistance highs from last December."

He added, "For the overall market to achieve sustainable gains, renewed strength in the technology sector is crucial." He further noted that without further impetus from tech stocks, particularly software names, the S&P 500 would likely face resistance in its attempt to surpass the 7,000-point level.

Monday's economic data calendar is relatively light, although several Federal Reserve officials, including Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Milan, are scheduled to speak later in the day.

On Wednesday, investors will receive the delayed January nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report, originally slated for release last Friday, was postponed due to a partial US government shutdown.

Ahead of this, data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) last week showed US private sector employment increased by only 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below market expectations.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the closely-watched employment report to show the US economy added 55,000 nonfarm payrolls in January.

The January Consumer Price Index report, also delayed by the government shutdown, is due on Friday. Market consensus anticipates a year-over-year increase of 2.5%.

If corporate earnings reports this week show strength, the recent trend of capital outflow from the technology sector could re-emerge. Both Coca-Cola and Ford Motor are scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley Backs Tech Stocks: Rally Has More Room to Run Morgan Stanley strategists indicated that US technology stocks have further upside potential, supported by strong sales prospects fueled by the AI boom.

A team led by Michael Wilson stated that revenue growth expectations for large-cap tech stocks have reached "multi-decade highs," while their valuations have moderated following recent market volatility. Simultaneously, the sell-off in software stocks has created "highly attractive buying opportunities" for names like Microsoft and Intuit.

Wilson wrote in a report, "Periods like last week are not uncommon during major investment cycles. Nonetheless, the fundamentals for the AI enabler industry remain strong, and we believe the value in the AI adopter market is still underestimated."

Wilson's view may reassure investors who have begun questioning the returns on substantial investments in the artificial intelligence sector.

Expert Warns: A Major 'Black Swan' Event is Brewing According to Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz AG, a potential crash stems from what he describes as excessive leverage and derivatives exposure. He warned in an interview with David Lin that these factors are transforming into a potential time bomb.

Piepenburg stated, "Currently, the value of derivatives is four times that of all global assets. Their leverage is enormous, and our leverage is tenfold. This is simply a time bomb. I am just waiting for some kind of delivery failure to occur. We can even discuss this in the commodity markets, as we might see delivery failures in commodities like silver. This could be a potential black天鹅 event."

Piepenburg warned that the biggest risk lies in the scale of derivatives exposure, which now far exceeds global underlying assets and features higher leverage than before the 2008 financial crisis.

He added that any single failure, such as a delivery disruption in commodity markets like silver, could trigger broader contagion effects.

Overall, Piepenburg believes there are severe contradictions in the market. Policy support continues to fuel risk-taking behavior, but growing imbalances and high leverage mean any unexpected shock could expose the financial system's fragility.

Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 Drop Below 6707 Could Trigger $80 Billion in Systematic Selling Analysis from Goldman Sachs' trading desk suggests that following Friday's rebound, which nearly erased the week's sharp declines, markets could face further selling pressure from trend-following algorithmic funds this week.

The S&P 500 has already fallen below the short-term trigger point that prompts Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) to sell stocks. Goldman expects these systematic strategies, which react to market trends rather than fundamentals, to continue being net sellers of equities over the coming week, regardless of market direction.

According to Goldman's analysis, another market decline this week could trigger approximately $33 billion in selling pressure. The bank's data indicates that if market stress persists and the S&P 500 falls below 6,707 points, it could trigger an additional $80 billion in systematic selling over the following month.

Specifically, if markets remain flat, CTAs are projected to sell about $15.4 billion in US stocks this week. Even if stocks rise, these trend-following systematic funds are still expected to sell approximately $8.7 billion.

Focus Stocks Gold and silver prices rebounded, leading to broad pre-market gains in precious metal stocks. Austin Gold rose 7%, Namib Minerals gained 6%, Pan American Silver advanced 3.2%, and Harmony Gold climbed 3%.

Space-related stocks moved higher pre-market. Rocket Lab increased 2.4%, AST SpaceMobile rose 2.1%, and the "SpaceX concept fund" DXYZ gained 2.5%.

Hims & Hers declined 17% after delisting generic weight-loss drugs. Conversely, Novo Nordisk rose 6.6% and Eli Lilly gained 2.2% pre-market.

Micron Technology fell over 2% pre-market on reports that Nvidia might exclude Micron's HBM4 from the first-year production of its Rubin architecture.

Eli Lilly rose 2.2% pre-market after Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $1,260 and reiterated a "Buy" rating.

QuantumScape extended its gains, rising over 19% pre-market after commencing trial production of solid-state batteries last week.

WeRide continued its advance, rising over 1% pre-market following its partnership with Uber to expand into the Middle East market, which received a positive outlook from JPMorgan.

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