This year witnessed unprecedented momentum in non-ferrous metals not seen in decades, with gold surpassing $4,500 and silver breaking through $80. Copper, dubbed the "new gold" this year, breached the historic $12,000 milestone. Metals including palladium, platinum, cobalt, and tungsten all experienced significant rallies.

A year-end news story titled "Multiple Chinese Air Conditioner Manufacturers Promote 'Aluminum Replacing Copper'" trended online, drawing public attention to the copper shortage. However, in capital and commodity markets, the narrative of copper scarcity persisted throughout 2025. Like copper, strong performers such as silver, aluminum, cobalt, and nickel share a common demand-side characteristic beyond supply constraints: they are darlings of the new energy and AI technology waves. The "China Commodity Price Index Report (2025)" indicates a clear shift in market dynamics this year, with high-tech manufacturing sectors like new energy, photovoltaics, and wind power, along with high-end equipment manufacturing, maintaining rapid growth. This has boosted the prosperity of the non-ferrous metals industry chain, with prices expected to rise 4.2% compared to 2024.

Based on their properties and uses, non-ferrous metals can be broadly categorized as follows: Compiled by Caifen reporters from public information, this year's non-ferrous metals market experienced a surge not seen in decades, with gold exceeding $4,500 and silver surpassing $80. Copper, termed the "new gold" this year, broke the $12,000 historic barrier. Palladium, platinum, cobalt, and tungsten all saw substantial increases.

Precious Metals: Dual Resonance of Financial and Industrial Attributes In 2025, the precious metals sector saw broad-based gains, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rising significantly. 1. Spot Gold Breaches $4,500 For the gold market, 2025 was undoubtedly an extraordinary year, with spot gold prices setting new records 50 times. On December 24, spot gold broke through the $4,500 per ounce mark for the first time, again setting a new historical record. On December 26, London spot gold continued its ascent, closing at $4,532.41 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 72%. Influenced by factors including global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical避险, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a weakening US dollar信用, global gold demand and prices climbed in tandem. According to World Gold Council data, global gold demand reached 3,717 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2025, a 1% increase. Global central banks were net buyers of 634 tonnes, with Q3 net purchases of 220 tonnes, up 28% from Q2 and 10% year-on-year, indicating that sustained price increases did not deter ongoing central bank accumulation. Beyond central bank buying, expectations of US rate cuts and global economic uncertainty boosted retail investment demand. WGC data shows significant growth in global gold investment demand in the first three quarters, primarily from physical bars and gold ETFs, with ETF growth being most pronounced. Physical bar demand totaled 738.8 tonnes, while gold ETF demand reached 618.8 tonnes. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold will rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, implying roughly 14% upside from current levels. 2. Silver Surges 175% Silver was the standout "dark horse" of the precious metals market in 2025. Since the start of the year, spot silver soared from around $29 per ounce, repeatedly hitting new highs. In December, spot silver experienced an epic rally, with London spot silver breaking through $60 and $70. On December 26, spot silver surged 10% intraday, closing at $79.33 per ounce. As of December 26, silver had gained nearly 175%, more than double gold's increase. Unlike gold, whose price logic leans more towards its financial attributes, silver boasts the highest electrical and thermal conductivity among metals, combining precious metal status with broad industrial applications. Accelerating global green energy transition shaped silver demand in 2025 into a pattern of "industry-led demand with investment chasing the rally." Industrial demand from the photovoltaic sector represents the largest and most certain growth area for silver; simultaneously, rising gold prices enhanced silver's investment appeal, generating additional investment demand. The latest Silver Institute report identifies solar PV, electric vehicles and their infrastructure, data centers, and artificial intelligence as the three pillars of silver demand growth. The share of PV sector demand in total industrial silver demand rose from 11% in 2014 to 29% in 2024; global automotive silver demand is projected to grow at a 3.4% CAGR from 2025-2031, reaching approximately 94 million ounces by 2031; data center industrial silver demand hit a record 680.5 million ounces in 2024. Looking ahead, while the macro and supply-demand drivers remain, analysts caution that the record-breaking rally may be overextended, suggesting investors consider profit-taking. Spectra Markets analysts note silver's current rise exhibits "impulsive" characteristics, detached from economic fundamentals. 3. Platinum Group Metals Outperform Gold Significantly Beyond gold and silver, platinum group metals (PGMs) became highly sought-after assets in 2025. On December 26, alongside silver, platinum and palladium delivered impressive performances. Spot platinum surged over 9% intraday, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 125%. Palladium also rose over 11% that day, bringing its annual gain to over 111%, both far exceeding gold's performance. Analysts attribute the PGM rally to a combination of factors including tightening physical supply, shifts in new energy industry policies, and changing避险 sentiment. The PGM price surge unfolded in three distinct phases in 2025. The first phase, from May to July, was primarily driven by supply disruptions in South Africa due to extreme weather, aging mines, and power rationing. The second phase, from late August to mid-October, was fueled by the Fed initiating its rate-cutting cycle, international turmoil, and US government shutdowns stemming from budget impasses, boosting避险 demand. December marked the beginning of the third phase. Key drivers included: first, the registration and listing of platinum and palladium futures and options in China, the world's largest platinum consumer, providing new investment and hedging tools; second, Europe's relaxation of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban, sparking debate on catalyst technology adjustments, with automotive demand still supporting platinum; third, China's "16th Five-Year Plan" proposal positioning hydrogen energy as a "key piece," potentially launching a new energy revolution, highlighting platinum's value as the preferred catalyst for fuel cells. Market institutions are generally optimistic about future trends. The World Platinum Investment Council believes platinum prices remain historically undervalued compared to gold, making it a strategic resource worthy of long-term attention.

Base Metals: Value Reassessment Under Industrial Necessity 1. Copper Becomes the "New Gold" In the 2025 commodity market race, copper was undoubtedly the brightest star. Influenced by persistent Fed rate cut expectations, constrained output at major global mines, and robust downstream demand, copper prices experienced an epic rally, repeatedly setting new records. As of December 26, LME three-month copper hit a record high of $12,133 per tonne. Domestic Chinese copper prices largely mirrored international trends. On the night of December 26, SHFE copper broke through the 100,000 yuan per tonne barrier for the first time ever, closing up over 3.3%. Year-to-date, LME copper gained nearly 40%, while SHFE copper rose over 40%, earning copper the industry moniker "new gold." As the "king of industrial metals," copper is widely used in power, electronics, construction, and transportation. Amid the global shift towards clean, low-carbon energy, copper's strategic importance has surged due to its extensive use in renewable energy systems, EVs, and smart grids, transforming it from a traditional industrial metal into a core "green metal" essential for global sustainable development. In 2025, copper faced unique supply challenges. Events including seismic activity at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, accidents at Chile's El Teniente mine, landslides at Indonesia's Grasberg, and delays at the Quebrada Blanca tailings project led to an estimated 4.7% year-on-year drop in global mine output, with the annual supply deficit expected to widen to 150,000-300,000 tonnes. Concurrently, high downstream demand pushed global copper consumption higher. In 2025, construction waves in clean energy generation and AI data centers emerged as new demand drivers. Guosheng Securities estimates global refined copper consumption growth will remain between 2%-4% in 2025, providing resilience amid global supply chain adjustments. On the policy front, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with lower interest rates, enhanced the financial valuation of non-ferrous metals. This was particularly beneficial for precious metals and resource sectors in an environment of weak growth and moderate inflation. Looking forward, after silver's stellar performance, Wall Street is turning its attention to copper. Several investment firms believe copper will be the top-performing metal in 2026. Guosheng Securities predicts that under a baseline scenario, global refined copper demand and supply will see CAGRs of 3.7% and 2.2% respectively from 2025-2029, with the deficit expanding from 470,000 tonnes to 2.44 million tonnes. Goldman Sachs expects global (ex-US) copper inventories to continue declining in 2026, supporting prices in the $10,000-$11,000 per tonne range. While US tariff expectations led to inventory builds, potentially releasing short-term pressure, long-term electrification and AI demand are expected to keep pushing prices higher. Goldman forecasts copper could reach $15,000 by 2035. 2. Aluminum: Green Energy and Emerging Tech Drive Demand Since April 2025, driven by improving global macro sentiment, frequent overseas supply disruptions, steady domestic demand, and low inventories, aluminum prices began a new strong upward trend, steadily climbing. Particularly after the Fed's second rate cut in September 2025, improved global liquidity expectations spurred a broad price increase in precious and industrial metals, with aluminum prices rising sharply. By late October 2025, LME aluminum broke through $2,888 per tonne, a high not seen since June 2022. As of December 24, LME aluminum closed at $2,956.5 per tonne. On December 26, SHFE aluminum was at 22,335 yuan per tonne. As a typical industrial metal, aluminum is the second most widely used metal after steel, valued for its lightness, corrosion resistance, good conductivity, and recyclability. It plays an indispensable role in construction, transportation, power, packaging, and emerging technologies. Aluminum demand is highly dependent on the prosperity of manufacturing, construction, and transportation. Against the backdrop of global manufacturing recovery and green energy development, aluminum demand showed significant growth. China, as the largest consumer, saw record aluminum demand driven by its PV and new energy vehicle sectors. Beyond copper and aluminum, within industrial metals, tin, a key material for semiconductors and AI, faces a widening supply-demand gap. Slow resumption in Wa State and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining tightened supply, while recovering semiconductor demand and growing AI server needs are projected to cause a global refined tin deficit of 10,000 tonnes in 2026.

Strategic Minor Metals: Core Engine of Emerging Industries As the core engine of emerging industries, strategic minor metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt also rallied significantly in 2025. As the "essential trio" for power batteries, their role as energy metals is giving way to that of electric metals, benefiting from sustained high growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage. Export controls in the DRC caused a sharp drop in global cobalt supply, with a projected deficit of 32,000 tonnes in 2026. The advantage of NMC batteries in high-end EVs and the industrialization of solid-state batteries further open demand potential for cobalt. This year, prices for tungsten and cobalt surged over 130%; rare earth oxide prices rose broadly, benefiting from export control policies and demand expectations from fields like humanoid robots; although lithium prices remain at low levels, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, with the supply-demand balance quietly improving. Looking ahead, analysts generally believe the metals market will transition from broad gains to structural differentiation. In stark contrast to copper are aluminum, lithium, and iron ore. Goldman Sachs expects significant supply growth for these in 2026, driven by Chinese overseas investment, forecasting price declines of 19%, 25%, and 15% respectively from spot levels.

Ferrous Metals: Divergent Paths Amid a Slowing Traditional Engine Ferrous metals primarily refer to iron, chromium, manganese-based metals and their alloys. The most core, highest volume, and most widely used is iron and its alloys, commonly known as steel. The primary reason for declining steel prices in 2025 remains weak demand. Structural declines in steel demand from the construction and real estate sectors in major economies (China, US, Europe) were the fundamental drag, while automotive sector growth was insufficient to offset the loss. The latest report from commodity data firm Expana shows the global iron-based metals index (EIC) fell 2% year-on-year in 2025, with the decline moderating. Chinese HRC exports to Europe fell 11% year-on-year. In iron ore, supply growth significantly outpaced demand growth, with a surplus基本面 determining a downward price trend. The iron ore futures market in 2025 saw a曲折 path: initial decline, followed by a rally, then a deep downturn, with tension between macro policy expectations and fundamental reality persisting throughout the year. Early-year policy support gave way to weaker sentiment as overseas trade dynamics shifted and domestic industry regulation expectations intensified. Weak end-user steel demand led to significant price drops for raw materials like iron ore. A转折 occurred after June, with "double cokes" (coking coal and coke) beginning valuation repair after deep declines. In July, driven by multiple policy expectations, supply disruptions, and restocking, the rebound turned into a sharp rally, with coking coal futures experiencing "six consecutive gains," pulling iron ore up. However, the rise was largely sentiment-driven, lacking solid demand support. From late July, as expectations diverged from reality, the "high price, low demand"矛盾 intensified, leading to a continuous decline from peaks. From then until October, the market saw resistance-style bounces due to factors like environmental inspections and short-term restocking, but overall displayed a volatile, grinding downward trend. Entering November, traditional seasonal weakness intensified. Concurrently, concerns over long-term demand mounted, combined with systemic pressure in commodity markets, leading to a concentrated release of pessimism and a breakdown across the ferrous complex. Looking to 2026, industry analysis suggests the structural direction of construction in key消费 regions and persistent weak domestic demand will be decisive factors. A Guotai Junan research report notes that iron ore will continue its capacity expansion进程, and its current high valuation may face significant challenges in the first half of next year, but macro-level impacts on valuation cannot be underestimated. The V-shaped price reversal trend seen this year may replay in 2026. Global iron ore consumption demand may see slight growth but is unlikely to reverse the surplus. In stark contrast to copper, Goldman Sachs expects iron ore supply to grow significantly in 2026, with prices forecast to fall 15% from spot levels.

Amid the narrative of global energy transition, key green metals are leaping from "niche commodities" to "strategic elements." The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025," points out that electric vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics are driving a surge in demand for critical minerals. By 2030, total demand for critical minerals will double compared to 2020, with battery-related metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, manganese, copper) accounting for over 70%. Battery industry demand for lithium is growing at a CAGR exceeding 15%, making it the fastest-growing single metal globally. If the global "net-zero" path is achieved, the battery industry will consume 9 times current lithium production, 3 times nickel, and 2 times copper by 2050. The Shenzhen Battery Industry Association notes in a report that by 2035, "green metals" will fully replace "black metals" as the focus of global resource competition.