Market Summary Core View: Weak and Volatile For the new season's apples, fruit growers in various production areas are gradually thinning fruit. Bagging has begun in some regions including Tongchuan and Fuping in Shaanxi; Yiyuan and Mengyin in Shandong; and Qingyang in Gansu. The main futures contract is under downward pressure. This week, the spot apple market continued its weak trend, with growers and holders showing a clear urgency to sell, leading to sustained price declines. Truck arrivals at wholesale markets in South China increased week-on-week. However, competing fruits have seen widespread price reductions, widening the substitution price gap, and apple consumption remains sluggish. Subsequent focus will be on the new season's fruit setting and bagging progress, market transaction sentiment, and the pace of inventory drawdown.

Price Performance: Neutral to Weak Spot prices: Qixia 80# first and second-grade paper bag apples were at 3.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week). Luochuan 70# paper bag apples were at 3.75 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin from last week). The spot basis weakened, with the October contract spot basis at -1259 yuan/ton (last week: -1030 yuan/ton).

Supply: Neutral China's 2025 apple production is estimated at 34.3132 million tons (down 6% year-on-year). However, ample blossom quantity and generally good fruit setting for the new season are putting pressure on the futures market.

Demand: Neutral As of the week of May 15th, cold storage inventory of apples in major production areas nationwide stood at 2.4343 million tons. Cumulative outflows are lagging behind the same period last year. The widening substitution price gap is encroaching on some of apple's sales share. In terms of sales regions, truck arrivals of apples in South China markets increased compared to last week.

Cost: Neutral The urgency among growers to sell has increased. Prices for average-quality goods may continue to soften, while prices for premium goods may follow the downward trend.

Export: Neutral China's main export variety is Red Fuji, with traditional export markets being Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, Russia, Bangladesh, and some European countries are also important export destinations.

Price Performance Spot Apple Prices

Shandong: The overall destocking pace in Shandong production areas this week was slightly faster than last week. The number of buyers looking for goods increased slightly. Merchants are mostly pressing for and selectively purchasing strip-red varieties with higher cost-performance ratios, but the supply of such goods is limited, leading to limited overall transactions. Currently, growers and holders show a clear urgency to sell. Grower-offered prices are chaotic and continued to decline during the week. Trading in subsidiary production areas like Yiyuan and Mengyin was sparse, with remaining inventory pressure being relatively high. For the new season, growers in the Yantai production area are gradually thinning fruit. Overall fruit setting in Penglai is acceptable. Fruit setting in Qixia is slightly uneven, being poorer in western townships and good in eastern townships. In Penglai, mainstream quotes for 75# first and second-grade grower goods were around 1.8-3.0 yuan/jin (down from last week). For 80# first and second-grade grower goods, quotes were 2.6-3.8 yuan/jin (down from last week). There were essentially no transactions for third-grade fruit. In Qixia, late Fuji 80# first and second-grade strip-red grower goods were quoted at 2.5-3.8 yuan/jin (down from last week).

Shaanxi: Currently, growers in Shaanxi production areas are gradually thinning fruit. Overall fruit setting in areas where fruit has set is good. Some plots in Tongchuan, Weinan, and Xianyang production areas reported uneven fruit setting. Currently, transaction prices for mixed-grade grower goods of 70# and above in Luochuan cold storage range from 2.0-3.0 yuan/jin, with a mainstream range of 2.4-2.6 yuan/jin. Prices for lower-grade goods are around 1.2-1.6 yuan/jin. Mainstream transaction prices for merchant semi-premium goods of 70# and above are around 3.5-4.0 yuan/jin. For merchant semi-premium goods of 80# and above, mainstream transaction prices are around 4.5-4.8 yuan/jin, with prices largely determined by quality.

Apple Futures Market On May 15th, AP2610 closed at 7,659 yuan/ton (up 0.38% week-on-week). AP2701 closed at 7,636 yuan/ton (down 0.12% week-on-week).

Apple Basis and Spread

Supply: Production and Cold Storage Inventory Cold Storage Inventory Continues to Draw Down As of the week of May 15th, cold storage inventory of apples in major production areas nationwide was 2.4343 million tons (a decrease of 230,000 tons week-on-week). Shandong held 1.1778 million tons (a decrease of 76,800 tons week-on-week). Shaanxi held 563,900 tons (a decrease of 68,400 tons week-on-week). The destocking pace is slower year-on-year.

Planting Area and Production In 2025, China's apple planting area was 1.74484 million hectares (up 0.2% year-on-year). Apple production was 34.3132 million tons (down 6% year-on-year).

Demand: Cold Storage Shipments and Substitute Situation Apple Cold Storage Outflows As of the week of May 15th, national apple cold storage outflows were 229,700 tons (previous week: 249,600 tons). Cumulative outflows for the 2025/26 season reached 5.2414 million tons (same period last year: 6.695 million tons). Outflows from Shaanxi and Shandong cold storage were 145,200 tons (previous week: 152,800 tons). Cumulative outflows for the 2025/26 season from these regions were 2.9727 million tons (same period last year: 4.0336 million tons).

Apple Truck Arrivals in South China Markets Truck arrivals of apples in South China markets increased slightly compared to last week. As of the week of May 15th, average daily arrivals at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao were 24.2 trucks (last week: 23), 12 trucks (last week: 10), and 17 trucks (last week: 15), respectively. Current arrival volumes are at normal levels, but customer traffic is low. Overall sales are slow. Inventory backlog at transit warehouses remains evident. Downstream secondary and tertiary wholesalers are not actively purchasing, leading to chaotic market prices.

Ministry of Agriculture Monitored Wholesale Prices for Six Fruits: Grape Prices Rise Significantly For the week of May 8th, the wholesale price of Jufeng grapes was 15.5 yuan/KG (up 7.4% week-on-week). Fuji apple wholesale price was 9.33 yuan/KG (down 0.5% week-on-week). Banana wholesale price was 5.83 yuan/KG (down 1.4% week-on-week). Pear wholesale price was 5.41 yuan/KG (down 2.9% week-on-week). Watermelon wholesale price was 4.69 yuan/KG (down 5.4% week-on-week). Pineapple wholesale price was 5.56 yuan/KG (down 1.4% week-on-week).

Fruit Price Ratios For the week of May 8th, the apple-to-banana price ratio was 1.6 (last week: 1.59). The apple-to-pear price ratio was 1.72 (last week: 1.68).

Apple Import and Export Apple Import and Export In March 2026, China imported 10,300 tons of apples (February import: 2,098 tons; same month last year: 9,459 tons). China exported 90,800 tons of apples (February export: 79,000 tons; same month last year: 96,000 tons). China's main export variety is Red Fuji, with traditional export markets being Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, Russia, Bangladesh, and some European countries are also important export destinations.