Title

Earning Preview: Consolidated Edison revenue expected to decrease by 1.86%, and institutional views are bearish

Abstract

Consolidated Edison will report its latest quarterly results on February 19, 2026 Post Market, and this preview consolidates market expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS, margin trends from the prior quarter, the current-quarter outlook by operating lines, and how recent analyst ratings and regulatory developments could influence short-term share performance.

Market Forecast

Market models for the upcoming quarter point to revenue of $3.61 billion, implying a year-over-year decline of 1.86%, and adjusted EPS of $0.95, implying a year-over-year decrease of 0.29%; EBIT is projected at $685.57 million with an expected year-over-year increase of 5.44%. Forecasts do not include gross profit margin or net profit margin, and the company has not provided updated margin guidance in these projections.

Electric operations remain the primary revenue driver, with seasonal volumes and delivery rates likely to shape the top line and cost recovery mechanisms influencing margin cadence through the quarter. Within its portfolio, the electric segment appears best positioned to sustain near-term earnings contribution given its scale; it generated $4.04 billion of revenue last quarter, with the balance from natural gas at $433.00 million and steam at $56.00 million.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Consolidated Edison delivered revenue of $4.53 billion (up 10.70% year-over-year), a gross profit margin of 55.34%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $688.00 million with a net profit margin of 15.19%, and adjusted EPS of $1.90 (up 13.10% year-over-year). Adjusted EPS of $1.90 exceeded the $1.742 pre-report consensus by $0.16, and revenue surpassed expectations by $313.75 million.

Total revenue growth of 10.70% year-over-year was anchored by the electric segment at $4.04 billion, supported by $433.00 million in natural gas revenue and $56.00 million in steam revenue, while non-utility activities were minimal at $1.00 million. EBIT reached $968.00 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 12.30% and providing incremental operating leverage relative to earlier expectations.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Electric operations: revenue stability and margin sensitivities

The electric business remains Consolidated Edison’s largest earnings engine and will define the tone of this quarter’s print. With revenue forecast at $3.61 billion for the consolidated company and an anticipated 1.86% year-over-year decline, a key watch item is how electric delivery volumes and allowed recovery mechanisms flow through revenue given seasonal consumption patterns. While the forecast does not provide a gross profit margin figure, the prior-quarter gross margin of 55.34% and net profit margin of 15.19% provide a baseline for assessing any mix or cost shifts this quarter. Management’s recent cadence has emphasized operating efficiencies and disciplined cost control, which, if sustained, could help support EBIT, currently projected to increase by 5.44% year-over-year to $685.57 million, even with a modest top-line decline. Weather normalization and customer usage could introduce variability; however, these effects typically manifest within predictable ranges due to the structure of delivery revenues and recovery mechanisms. Given that the electric segment contributed $4.04 billion last quarter, the breadth of that base provides a buffer against modest swings in volumes or timing of cost deferrals.

Grid modernization and customer programs: incremental earnings drivers

The company’s most promising earnings leverage in the near term lies in its electric network investment programs and customer-facing initiatives that enable grid reliability and support ongoing capital deployment. Although segment-level year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed in the latest dataset, the $4.04 billion electric revenue base from last quarter underscores the scale at which incremental improvements in delivery rates, operating efficiency, or capital trackers can translate into consolidated earnings resilience. The EBIT forecast growth of 5.44% year-over-year this quarter, despite an anticipated revenue decline, implicitly assumes that cost recovery and productivity can offset part of the top-line pressure. Executing on approved capital programs and prioritizing essential projects can help concentrate spend where the allowed returns and cost recovery are most predictable. The January decision that reduced elements of the company’s requested delivery revenue increase in New York points to headwinds on near-term revenue uplift, but also clarifies immediate parameters for how spending and recovery will be sequenced. Focusing on projects with clearer recovery visibility can help sustain EBIT and cash flow trajectories within the current regulatory framework.

What could move the stock this quarter: rates, regulation, and payout signals

Short-term share performance is likely to be influenced by the interplay between this quarter’s reported revenue/EPS and the market’s evolving stance on the company’s regulatory and capital outlook. The current-quarter EPS estimate of $0.95, down 0.29% year-over-year, sets a narrowly negative earnings growth baseline; delivery of results above or below this range could lead to outsized moves given heightened sensitivity to incremental changes in profitability. The recent New York decision to reduce portions of the requested delivery revenue increase has near-term implications for perceived revenue growth and investment pacing, and investors will parse management’s commentary for how spending will be prioritized, which projects may be deferred, and where operating efficiencies are expected to bridge gaps. In late January, the company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.8875 per share, signaling confidence in cash flow durability; while dividend policy does not directly change quarterly EPS, it often informs expectations around capital allocation discipline and balance-sheet management. Ultimately, how the company frames 2026 spending, O&M trajectories, and earnings cadence in light of the revised rate path will be central to the stock’s reaction around the release and subsequent guidance touchpoints.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent opinions published from January 2026 through February 12, 2026, bearish views outnumber bullish views among the non-neutral ratings, with two bearish calls versus one bullish call. J.P. Morgan maintained an Underweight rating with a price target of $107, emphasizing a cautious stance tied to limited near-term upside in delivery revenue growth under the current regulatory trajectory and a muted earnings growth setup for the forthcoming quarter. Barclays reiterated an Underweight rating with a $100 price target, highlighting the dampening effect of the January rate decision on expected top-line uplift and expressing skepticism that cost efficiencies alone will meaningfully offset the revenue headwind in the near term. While there were neutral takes clustered around Hold, Sector Perform, and Neutral ratings with price targets spanning approximately $100 to $110, the decisive skew within strictly bullish-versus-bearish calls remains negative.

The bearish majority frames three near-term concerns. First, consensus revenue of $3.61 billion implies a 1.86% year-over-year decline, and the projected adjusted EPS of $0.95 implies a 0.29% contraction year-over-year, which together set a low-growth baseline into the print. Second, the January regulatory outcome—reducing elements of the company’s requested delivery revenue increases—means the market is recalibrating top-line growth expectations for 2026, and analysts worry that moderating revenue growth may compress the degree of earnings expansion that had been anticipated earlier. Third, bears argue that, even with EBIT forecast to rise 5.44% year-over-year this quarter, the path to sustained multi-quarter EPS acceleration may require more visible incremental revenue mechanisms or a sharper cost pivot than currently contemplated.

Despite that caution, bears acknowledge that the company executed solidly in the prior quarter: revenue of $4.53 billion rose 10.70% year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $1.90 grew 13.10% year-over-year, and EBIT of $968.00 million advanced 12.30% year-over-year. However, the pivot from those robust year-over-year gains to a quarter now modeled for slight revenue and EPS declines reinforces their view that the near-term trajectory is flattening. In practice, that means the bar for a positive surprise is lower; if Consolidated Edison exceeds the $0.95 adjusted EPS estimate and lands revenue closer to the $3.61 billion mark while preserving margins, it could ease some of the bearish pressure. Conversely, a miss against that narrow band—especially if net profitability lags without clear, near-term recovery levers—would validate the conservative positioning signaled by recent Underweight ratings.

In summary, the prevailing analyst stance entering the February 19, 2026 Post Market release is bearish, built on the combination of modest expected revenue/EPS contraction this quarter and a regulatory backdrop that tempers near-term delivery revenue expansion. The dividend increase to $0.8875 per share provides a supportive capital-return signal, yet, based on the balance of recent bearish commentary, the market is more focused on how management will recalibrate spending and operating plans to protect earnings momentum within the newly defined rate path. The company’s ability to demonstrate continued EBIT growth, cost discipline, and clarity on project prioritization could be the decisive factors in challenging the current bearish tilt and improving sentiment into subsequent quarters.