Abstract

Nova Ltd will report fiscal results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest last-quarter data and current-quarter forecasts, along with recent institutional commentary, to frame expectations for revenue, gross margin, net margin, and adjusted EPS and the likely stock drivers into the print.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Nova Ltd’s revenue is forecast at USD 220.43 million, implying estimated year-over-year growth of 18.20%, with forecast EBIT at USD 68.76 million and forecast EPS at USD 2.13, both reflecting double‑digit year-over-year growth. The prior quarter’s actuals provide a baseline of USD 224.61 million revenue, a gross profit margin of 56.73%, a net profit margin of 27.35%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 61.42 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.16, with quarter-on-quarter net profit change of -10.06%. Nova Ltd’s main business remains Products and Services, with Products revenue at USD 178.87 million and Services revenue at USD 45.74 million last quarter; the company’s outlook highlights sustained demand for metrology and process control tools, while Services continues to expand its installed-base monetization.

The most promising segment appears to be Products, with USD 178.87 million revenue last quarter supported by resilient capital spending in key end markets; Services at USD 45.74 million shows recurring growth potential as the tool base expands, providing a margin and cash flow stabilizer year over year.

Last Quarter Review

Nova Ltd delivered last quarter revenue of USD 224.61 million, a gross profit margin of 56.73%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 61.42 million, a net profit margin of 27.35%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.16; the quarter-on-quarter growth of net profit was -10.06%, while the year-over-year trends were positive based on the prior-quarter comparisons. A key financial highlight was the strong profitability profile with more than half of revenue converting to gross profit, underpinned by a disciplined cost structure and favorable product mix. Main business highlights include Products revenue of USD 178.87 million and Services revenue of USD 45.74 million, reflecting a healthy split between new tool deliveries and ongoing service contracts; the prior quarter’s year-over-year growth rates were robust across revenue, EBIT, and EPS.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business momentum into the print

Management’s mix centers on Products and Services, and the prior quarter’s composition offers a useful guide to this quarter’s drivers. Products should anchor revenue given last quarter’s USD 178.87 million contribution and the current-quarter revenue forecast of USD 220.43 million, which assumes continued shipments into strategic nodes and customers. Margins will be sensitive to product mix and timing of acceptances; last quarter’s gross profit margin of 56.73% sets a high bar, and investors will watch whether a similar level can be maintained if shipments tilt toward initial tools for new fabs. Net profit margin at 27.35% last quarter underlined operating discipline; reiteration of cost control and expense pacing would support EPS durability around the USD 2.13 forecast.

Most promising business and incremental growth vectors

The Products segment stands out as the largest growth lever. The forecast EPS of USD 2.13 and EBIT of USD 68.76 million imply solid operating leverage if Products shipments track plan, aided by an easing supply chain and stable pricing. New generation metrology platforms and broader process control coverage can widen the company’s served available market. The Services franchise at USD 45.74 million last quarter adds a recurring layer, and as the installed base scales, attach rates for service, upgrades, and software options become an increasing earnings buffer. Year-over-year forecast revenue growth of 18.20% suggests that both new tools and service annuities are contributing, but execution on timing of tool acceptances remains a swing factor.

Key stock-impact factors this quarter

Guidance quality and margin trajectory are the dominant variables. Investors will concentrate on whether gross profit margin can remain near the prior quarter’s 56.73% amid product and customer mix shifts, and whether net margin can approximate the 27.35% benchmark despite opex phasing. The spread between last quarter’s actual revenue of USD 224.61 million and this quarter’s forecast of USD 220.43 million sets expectations for stable-to-slightly-lower sequential sales, making backlog conversion and shipment timing essential. Any commentary on demand normalization, order visibility, or lead times will influence sentiment, especially if it ties to the projected 18.20% year-over-year revenue growth. The EPS bridge from USD 2.16 actual to USD 2.13 forecast will likely hinge on gross margin mix and operating expense cadence.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional previews lean positive overall, with the majority expressing a cautiously constructive stance on the upcoming print given double‑digit year-over-year growth forecasts for revenue, EBIT, and EPS and resilient margins in the last quarter. Commentary emphasizes the durability of the company’s profitability profile, supported by a 56.73% gross margin and a 27.35% net margin baseline, and the expanding installed base that underpins Services. Analysts note that forecast revenue of USD 220.43 million and EPS of USD 2.13 reflect reasonable assumptions on shipment timing and product mix; upside could emerge if acceptances skew earlier within the quarter or if Services outperforms. The consensus frames risk around sequential variability relative to last quarter’s USD 224.61 million revenue, but the prevailing view is that the year-over-year growth and margin resilience leave room for constructive guidance, sustaining a cautiously positive setup into February 12, 2026.