Abstract

BHP Billiton will report fiscal results on February 16, 2026 Pre-Market, and this preview covers expectations for the latest quarter alongside segment trends and analyst views between January 01, 2026 and February 09, 2026.

Market Forecast

The market currently expects BHP Billiton’s current quarter adjusted EPS to be USD 1.18, implying year-over-year growth that is being monitored, with company guidance centered on stable margins and a focus on operational discipline. Based on the company’s prior communication, investors look for revenue stabilization supported by iron ore and copper volumes, with gross profit margin and net profit margin expected to remain anchored by cost discipline and product mix; adjusted EPS is forecast at USD 1.18 with year-over-year benchmarking being watched by the market. Iron ore and copper remain the core revenue engines with solid shipment resilience and incremental price support, while coal remains a smaller contributor. Copper, benefiting from improving grades and incremental capacity, is viewed as the most promising segment given medium-term energy-transition demand, while iron ore volumes continue to underpin cash generation.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, BHP Billiton recorded a GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 2.30 billion, a net profit margin of 17.65%, and a gross profit margin of 126.13%; adjusted EPS reported was USD 2.69 with a year-over-year decline of 41.27%, while the company maintained overall steady profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Management highlighted resilient operating performance and disciplined cost control as key drivers that kept margins stable, with quarter-on-quarter net profit growth at 0.00% indicating a flat trajectory through the period. Main business performance showed iron ore revenue of USD 22.92 billion, copper revenue of USD 22.53 billion, coal revenue of USD 5.05 billion, and other items at USD 0.77 billion; iron ore and copper together accounted for the overwhelming majority of group revenue, with a healthy overall mix supporting cash flows and investment capacity.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Iron ore and copper drive revenue consistency

Iron ore and copper remain the pillars of BHP Billiton’s financial profile this quarter. Shipment reliability and logistics execution are expected to support consistent volumes in both businesses, sustaining revenue and cash generation. Price dynamics have become more balanced, with iron ore prices providing cash flow resilience and copper supported by structural demand tied to grid, renewable, and electrification projects. Management’s focus on productivity and unit-cost control continues to act as a buffer against commodity volatility, helping keep group margins within a manageable range. As a result, group revenue is likely to be anchored by these two segments, which together historically represent more than three-quarters of total sales.

Most promising segment: Copper growth underpins medium-term upside

Copper carries the most constructive medium-term outlook due to tight supply pipelines and energy transition demand. Against this backdrop, incremental throughput, grade improvements, and debottlenecking at existing operations could support better realized prices and volume growth. While the current quarter EPS forecast of USD 1.18 embeds conservative assumptions for group-level profitability, copper’s contribution is expected to gain importance in case of further price firmness or operational outperformance. Capital allocation has been disciplined, giving the company capacity to fund sustaining work and targeted growth in copper without compromising balance sheet strength, which in turn enhances the quality of future cash flows.

Price sensitivities and factors most likely to impact the stock

Spot and contract price movements in iron ore sopport near-term cash flows, while copper price signals will guide incremental sentiment because of copper’s role in the growth narrative. The company’s net profit margin resilience last quarter provides a baseline for this quarter’s margin discussions, yet realized prices, FX effects, and inflation in consumables and energy could sway margins from quarter to quarter. Production guidance adherence and any updates on maintenance schedules are likely to influence expectations for shipments and cost absorption, while progress on productivity initiatives should remain a focal point for sustaining margins. Balance sheet and capital returns frameworks, including dividends and buybacks, may also be reassessed by investors in light of earnings visibility and commodity market volatility.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing institutional stance remains constructive on BHP Billiton’s near-term earnings trajectory, tilted toward a positive outlook as market participants emphasize margin stability and copper optionality. Several brokers highlight the supportive setup from iron ore cash generation and the emerging upside from copper development, framing the USD 1.18 adjusted EPS forecast as reasonable with room for upside if commodity prices remain firm. The majority view underscores disciplined cost control and diversified commodity exposure as advantages into this quarter, while acknowledging that realized prices remain the swing factor. Overall, the consensus leans bullish, with analysts noting that operational delivery and price trends are poised to validate the current expectations for steady earnings and robust cash flows.