GTHT has released a research report stating that on February 6th, Alibaba's Qwen App launched a 3 billion yuan red envelope subsidy program. The activity page on the Qwen App indicates the first wave of freebie activities runs from February 6th to 12th, with a second wave commencing on February 13th. According to data provided by Qwen, within less than 3 hours of the activity's launch, users had placed over 1 million milk tea orders. Merely 9 hours after launch, the "Qwen Spring Festival 3 Billion Yuan Freebie" event had exceeded 10 million orders. Current subsidies for ready-to-drink beverage deliveries are ongoing, and high demand during the Spring Festival period is anticipated. Concurrently, price wars in the ready-to-drink beverage industry are easing, leading to an optimized competitive landscape. GTHT's main viewpoints are as follows:
The launch of Qwen's subsidy program is beneficial for ready-to-drink beverage sales. On February 6th, Alibaba's Qwen App initiated a 3 billion yuan red envelope subsidy project. The app's activity page shows the first freebie event period is from February 6th to 12th. All users who update the Qwen App receive a 25 yuan no-threshold freebie card, which can be used not only for free milk tea but also for purchasing New Year goods via Taobao Quick Purchase and for ordering food delivery. A second wave starts on February 13th, where users can collect cash red envelopes, with a maximum potential gain of 2888 yuan. By placing an order with a single command in the Qwen App, the freebie card can be used immediately at over 300,000 milk tea shops nationwide, including brands such as Mixue Bingcheng, Luckin Coffee, Bawang Chaji, Nayuki's Tea, Auntie Jenny, Chabaidao, and Cotti Coffee. Furthermore, for each new user invited to download the Qwen App, both parties receive a 25 yuan freebie card. Each person can obtain up to 21 cards, equivalent to 525 yuan.
With intensified delivery subsidies, ready-to-drink beverage sales are expected to maintain strong momentum in the first quarter. Based on Qwen's data, user-ordered milk tea surpassed 1 million orders in under 3 hours post-launch. Just 9 hours after the activity began, the "Qwen Spring Festival 3 Billion Yuan Freebie" event order volume had already exceeded 10 million orders.
Industry price wars are moderating, and the competitive landscape for tea beverages is improving. Cotti Coffee has raised prices: effective February 1, 2026, Cotti Coffee will only retain 3-7 products in the special offer section at low prices, while the remaining products revert to regular prices of 11.9-16.9 yuan, with some core items seeing increases of 30%-60%. Simultaneously, Cotti adjusted other supporting activities; for example, the new store first-month voucher increased from 6.9 yuan to 8.8 yuan, the new user gift voucher in the referral reward program rose from 8.8 yuan to 9.9 yuan, retaining only subsidies linked with food delivery platforms.
The tea beverage market structure is improving: According to Narrow Door Meal Eye data, as of January 12, 2026, the latest number of ready-to-drink tea stores is 399,000, with 92,000 new stores opened in the past year and a net decrease of 35,000 stores.
Recommended stocks include: GUMING (01364), MIXUE GROUP (02097), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), CHABAIDAO (02555), AUNTEA JENNY (02589).
Risks include weak consumer demand, supervision risks for franchise stores, intensified industry competition, and food safety issues.