Abstract

TransUnion will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview synthesizes recent financials, company guidance, and analyst commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS, along with the main business drivers and segment outlook.

Market Forecast

Consensus for TransUnion’s current quarter points to revenue of $1.13 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.02, and EBIT of $236.22 million, with year-over-year growth of 10.47% for revenue, 6.03% for adjusted EPS, and 20.47% for EBIT; company-level gross profit margin and net profit margin are not explicitly guided, though historical margin structure supports a high-50s gross margin and a high-single-digit net margin. The core U.S. Information Services segment remains the highlight, supported by consumer credit activity, fraud mitigation demand, and marketing solutions resilience, while international continues to benefit from secular digitization of credit ecosystems. The most promising segment is U.S. Information Services, which delivered $0.91 billion last quarter and is positioned to see solid single-digit to low-double-digit year-over-year growth as lender demand for risk, identity, and trended data solutions persists.

Last Quarter Review

TransUnion’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of $1.17 billion, a gross profit margin of 58.93%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $96.60 million, a net profit margin of 8.26%, and adjusted EPS of $1.10, with revenue up 7.79% year over year and adjusted EPS up 5.77% year over year. A notable highlight was top-line outperformance versus consensus, underpinned by sustained demand in risk analytics and identity products, while EBIT of $207.60 million came in below the prior consensus but tracked healthy year-over-year growth. Main business highlights included U.S. Information Services at $0.91 billion and International at $0.26 billion, reflecting broad-based growth across risk and identity verification solutions.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: U.S. Information Services

The U.S. Information Services franchise anchors TransUnion’s quarterly results through demand for credit bureau data, trended and alternative data sets, and identity and fraud solutions embedded across lending and digital commerce. Entering the quarter, lender activity appears stable with pockets of strength in unsecured lending and auto, while mortgage remains subdued but off the bottom, pointing to modest transaction volume improvement. Data subscriptions and analytics contracts soften cyclicality, and new product adoption in identity verification and fraud screening adds incremental mix support. With revenue last quarter at $0.91 billion, the segment’s performance this quarter will hinge on origination volumes in cards and auto, refinance activity sensitivity to interest rate moves, and continued enterprise adoption of advanced scoring and device identity tools. Pricing discipline and product mix should sustain a gross margin in the high-50s, aiding operating leverage even if volumes normalize sequentially.

Most Promising Business: Identity, Fraud, and Risk Analytics embedded in U.S. Information Services

TransUnion’s identity and fraud suite, integrated into U.S. Information Services workflows, remains the structural growth engine as digital channels expand and fraud vectors evolve. Enterprises continue to prioritize account opening safety, transaction monitoring, and synthetic identity detection, supporting multi-year contracts and upsell opportunities. This quarter, growth should reflect ongoing adoption of identity graphs, device intelligence, and risk decisioning platforms by financial services, e-commerce, and gig economy partners. Revenue resilience is underpinned by low churn and cross-sell leverage into existing credit data customers, with year-over-year growth expected to outpace core bureau volumes. The unit’s margin profile is favorable due to software-like characteristics and high incremental economics, contributing to EBIT expansion and supporting the consolidated adjusted EPS trajectory of $1.02 if volume tailwinds hold.

Stock Price Drivers: Volume Mix, Pricing, and Margin Execution

The stock’s near-term performance correlates with how revenue mix and pricing translate into margin progression versus expectations. Investors will evaluate whether revenue growth of $1.13 billion to $1.17 billion aligns with stronger EBIT of $236.22 million, signaling healthy operating leverage despite mixed mortgage volumes. Cost discipline in technology and data acquisition, paired with mix benefits from identity and fraud products, can support adjusted EPS of $1.02 even if consumer lending volumes are uneven across categories. Any evidence of accelerated adoption in analytics subscriptions and device identity modules would bolster sentiment, while updates on capital allocation, including debt reduction and targeted investment, could inform valuation. Conversely, signs of slower renewal cycles or pressure in discretionary marketing spend would weigh on the multiple, given sensitivity to topline momentum.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary is cautiously positive, with a tilt toward revenue and EPS delivery slightly above model ranges given stable U.S. credit activity and ongoing identity and fraud adoption. Analysts emphasize that revenue growth near 10.47% year over year and adjusted EPS near $1.02 appear achievable if transaction volumes in cards and auto remain constructive and if identity product penetration continues. Well-known broker views coalesce around steady execution, noting that last quarter’s revenue of $1.17 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.10 showcased healthy demand dynamics despite an EBIT shortfall versus consensus. The consensus majority highlights potential upside from identity-driven mix and manageable macro headwinds, citing that EBIT forecast growth of 20.47% year over year implies rising operating efficiency. Analysts also stress that international momentum adds diversification, but U.S. Information Services will be the primary driver for margin performance and valuation re-rating if risk analytics and identity modules gain further share within client workflows.