Ports are often referred to as the "barometer" of the macroeconomy, a sentiment deeply understood by Sun Dingwei, who has years of experience in the port industry. He works for Shandong Port Group, the world's largest port group by throughput, which operates four major ports: Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Yantai Port, and Bohai Bay Port. In 2024, the group's cargo throughput exceeded 1.8 billion tons.
As a project supervisor at Shandong Port's Supply Chain Comprehensive Service Center, Sun Dingwei regularly deals with four major loading and unloading operations: containers, crude oil, dry bulk cargo, and breakbulk cargo. Currently, Shandong Port's container throughput exceeds 44 million TEU, ranking second globally. Its crude oil imports account for more than one-third of national imports, iron ore imports represent nearly one-quarter of national imports, bauxite imports constitute nearly three-fifths of national imports, and grain imports account for nearly one-fifth of national imports.
Whether in terms of cargo diversity or volume scale, Shandong Port provides a relatively complete mirror of the macroeconomy.
In the past, China was merely the "world's factory," positioned as one link in the global industrial chain. Changes in port throughput of different cargo types primarily reflected domestic macroeconomic conditions - iron ore downstream industries mainly included infrastructure and real estate, closely related to fixed investment; coal was primarily used in industrial sectors, reflecting industrial operating conditions; crude oil corresponded to logistics, reflecting economic vitality; and the increase in cold chain food reflected rising consumption levels.
Today, China's role in the global industrial chain is undergoing profound changes. More enterprises are going overseas and expanding into global markets. China is transforming from a "connector" and "participant" in the global industrial chain to a "driver" and "leader."
As a key link in the global supply chain, China's hub ports are also quietly "upgrading" their roles. Shandong Port has pioneered the transformation from a "single port operator" to a "comprehensive port service provider," evolving from dock "stevedores" to "designers" and "organizers" of transnational supply chains.
Shandong Port has over 370 berths and more than 260 foreign trade container routes, with one end centered on North China and even the Yellow River basin as its core hinterland, and the other end closely connected to more than 700 ports in over 180 countries and regions across five continents.
As Shandong Port's various businesses become deeply embedded in global industrial and supply chain systems, upstream raw material suppliers, intermediate traders, shipping companies, and downstream manufacturing enterprises from around the world flock here, bringing various market information from across the globe.
Being in this environment, Sun Dingwei increasingly feels that the daily throughput statistics for various cargo types at the docks and the monthly and annual performance reports of ports are not only "barometers" reflecting domestic macroeconomic conditions but also "weather vanes" for international industrial change trends and "thermometers" for global economic and trade relations.
**Breakbulk Cargo vs. Overseas Expansion Wave**
Recently, Sun Dingwei has been conducting grassroots research at various sub-ports of Shandong Port. As he and his colleagues predicted in their business analysis, from January to August 2025, the throughput of breakbulk cargo on liner services showed significant growth.
Liners, also known as scheduled ships, operate on fixed routes between fixed ports according to published schedules, characterized by "fixed ports, fixed routes, fixed schedules, and fixed rates." Breakbulk cargo refers to packaged or unpackaged goods handled as individual units at ports, mainly including mechanical and electrical equipment, construction machinery, and automobiles.
In 2024, Shandong Port's breakbulk cargo liner business throughput exceeded 20 million tons. In the first eight months of this year, Shandong Port completed nearly 20 million tons of breakbulk cargo liner business, a 77% year-on-year increase.
Regarding breakbulk cargo liner routes, Shandong Port operated a total of 23 liner routes last year; this year it plans to open 11 new cargo routes. By the end of August, 9 new routes had been opened and 6 existing routes expanded. These liner routes mainly serve Africa, North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Russia, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
Most of the breakbulk cargo flowing into the port consists of equipment needed for Chinese enterprises' overseas investments and overseas infrastructure projects. Some clients, seeking to extend their industrial reach, invest in building stainless steel factories in Southeast Asia and need to relocate domestic steelmaking equipment. Others who won highway projects in Saudi Arabia ship large quantities of construction vehicles, excavators, and other machinery to the Middle East for local infrastructure development. Some home appliance companies seeking cost advantages choose to invest in factories in Southeast Asian countries, while some automotive manufacturers receiving orders for over 2,500 new energy vehicles in Central America have become regular customers of American liner services.
The individual choices of enterprises for overseas markets ultimately aggregate into national macroeconomic data. The 2024 China Outward Foreign Direct Investment Statistical Bulletin shows that China's outward foreign direct investment flow in 2024 was $192.2 billion, an 8.4% increase from the previous year, accounting for 11.9% of the global share and ranking among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years.
From January to August 2025, BHI released data showing Chinese enterprises' overseas newly signed projects (including signings/awards/announcements/filings) reached 1,143, the highest for the same period in history. According to Ministry of Commerce data, from January to June 2025, China's foreign contracted engineering business newly signed contracts worth 933.19 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7%.
A port's size is measured by throughput; a port's strength is measured by containers; a port's excellence is measured by supply chains. In response to the wave of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment and the rapid export growth of high-end equipment and construction machinery, Shandong Port began exploring transformation into "designers" and "organizers" of transnational supply chains.
For example, it provides global engineering logistics chain services for enterprises like China Harbor, Shanghai Baoye, and China Road and Bridge, designing comprehensive transportation solutions for China-Guinea and China-Maldives engineering logistics.
Among these, Qingdao Port is the only super hub in northern China that achieves comprehensive coverage of ports in Belt and Road Initiative countries and regions. Li Weijie, Deputy Director of Qingdao Port's Business Department, explains that the port focuses on building premium breakbulk cargo routes, particularly cultivating Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Africa, and South America as core regions for Chinese manufacturing exports, establishing itself as the main port in northern China.
**Crude Oil vs. International Economic and Trade Relations**
The relationship between ports and hinterland industries is like a mirror - each can see itself through the other, and when one fluctuates, the other changes in sync. Another major bulk commodity at Shandong Port is crude oil, with imports accounting for more than one-third of national imports - meaning that for every 3 tons of crude oil imported by China, more than 1 ton lands here.
This stems from the massive petrochemical industry in the port's hinterland. Crude oil is called the "blood" of industry. Shandong is both a major industrial province in China and the world's third-largest refining center, home to more than 40 independent refineries with total crude oil processing capacity exceeding 100 million tons, accounting for one-sixth of national crude oil processing.
However, among the many cargo types entering and leaving the docks, crude oil is the most special. As Kissinger famously said: "Whoever controls oil controls all nations." Some countries even wage wars for it.
While Shandong maintains huge crude oil import demand year-round, the port's actual crude oil throughput is deeply affected by global geopolitics and economic trade relations. In recent years, with changing international situations including the Russia-Ukraine war, Red Sea crisis, and Israeli-Palestinian conflict, international trade frictions have intensified. Consequently, international crude oil prices soared, even reaching over $120 per barrel.
When Shandong Port's crude oil business personnel visited refineries in Dongying, Binzhou, and Weifang areas, they found that soaring crude oil prices significantly increased downstream refineries' costs and squeezed profits. Many local refineries fell into a situation of "losing money upon operation," with capacity utilization rates dropping below 50%.
Affected by this, the demand for crude oil from Shandong's local refineries showed a declining trend from January to August this year.
**Steel Exports vs. Overseas Infrastructure Wave**
The industrial structure of the hinterland determines the port's cargo types, while industrial scale determines throughput volume. The steel industries in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, and along the Yangtze River support Shandong Port's iron ore imports accounting for nearly one-quarter of national imports, making it the largest cargo type by volume among dry bulk cargo at Shandong Port.
Currently, with slowing growth in domestic infrastructure and real estate investment, the steel industry faces the dual pressure of reduced demand, overcapacity, and structural optimization. According to statistics, in the first seven months of this year, China imported 697 million tons of iron ore sand, a 2.3% year-on-year decrease.
On the other hand, Shandong Port's steel export throughput has risen rapidly. Emerging market countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are accelerating industrialization and urbanization, with strong infrastructure demand. Projects like Indonesia's new capital construction and Thailand's rail transit have driven continuous increases in Chinese steel procurement.
As of September 2025, China's crude steel output was 1.013 billion tons, accounting for more than half of global production, and Shandong Port's hinterland is one of China's steel production capacity concentration areas.
**"Barometer" vs. "Thermometer"**
At Shandong Port's berths and under bridge cranes, global cargo ships come and go endlessly, with throughput of various cargo types fluctuating like the tides.
The rise and fall of different cargo throughput volumes reflect current macroeconomic conditions, global economic and trade relations, and future industrial development trends from different perspectives.
Over the past few decades, China has gradually integrated into the global division of labor system with its powerful manufacturing capabilities and infrastructure, becoming a veritable "world factory." Today, China's role is undergoing profound changes.
Cao Mingxing, Party Secretary of the National Academy of Financial Strategy at Central University of Finance and Economics, points out that global geopolitics, economic and trade relations, technological revolution, and sustainable development needs are driving a dramatic "restructuring" of global industrial chains. China's role is shifting from past "connector" and "participant" to "driver" and "strategic hub."
China is no longer merely at the end of industrial chains but is becoming the starting point, organizer, and key circulation node for many industrial chains.
Similarly, the role played by ports deeply embedded in global industrial and supply chain systems is also quietly "upgrading." Currently, Shandong Port is accelerating its transformation from a "single port operator" to a "comprehensive port service provider," transitioning from dock "stevedores" to "designers" and "organizers" of transnational supply chains.
The company has initiated the Global Logistics Supply Chain Ecological Alliance and the China Port Procurement Supply Chain Alliance; helps inland customers design multimodal transport logistics routes through sea-rail and river-sea intermodal transport to reduce freight costs; jointly invests with Weiqiao Group in mineral resources and dock construction in Guinea; innovatively creates a "front port, rear park" service model for timber supply chains, integrating storage, logistics, and trade functions; coordinates multiple sectors internally and cooperates with financial institutions externally to conduct warehouse receipt pledging and commercial factoring businesses, solving financing difficulties for enterprises while reducing comprehensive logistics costs.
Recently, Qingdao Jiuzhou Materials Co., Ltd., which mainly trades steel, expanded its cooperation with Shandong Port, extending business from simple port loading and unloading to a comprehensive "service package" including logistics, pledge financing, and commercial factoring.
"Shandong Port's comprehensive supply chain service system not only helps us solve financing difficulties but also reduces our comprehensive logistics costs for steel exports by 10%," Zhang Xuyang, president of the company, said.
Amid the "uncertainties" and "multiple challenges" of the international economic and trade situation, Shandong Port continues to break traditional business boundaries, exploring a path of steady development through innovation and progress in difficulties by building supply chain service systems and improving comprehensive service "toolboxes."
Wang Wei believes that in recent years, domestic and international ports have been transforming into "comprehensive supply chain service providers," with Shandong Port starting this reform relatively early. As an important logistics hub for China's Yellow River basin, this follows the future development trend of ports and meets the country's need to accelerate the formation of new advantages in international competition.
With the restructuring of global industrial chains and China's role transformation, ports deeply embedded in global supply chain systems may play more precise roles as "barometers," "weather vanes," and "thermometers" in the future.