RBC Capital's global commodities strategy chief Christopher Louney said in Wednesday's latest commodity analysis that recent high-frequency gold price movements indicate geopolitical turmoil, global de-dollarization, and concerns over dollar depreciation are regaining dominance, with the precious metal now poised to resume its march toward the $5,000 per ounce milestone.

Louney wrote: "We have previously noted that while the underlying support factors for gold may have paused temporarily, they remain fully intact. Despite exchange-traded product (ETP) holdings experiencing a decline lasting more than a quarter, we believe asset allocation driven by the return of uncertainty, de-dollarization, and depreciation concerns is still anticipated, and these flows will return to push prices higher — a view supported by the August rebound in gold, current pricing, and inflow patterns."

Louney stated: "We continue to believe that for the remainder of this year, gold should trade mostly within the $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce range (this view remains unchanged and held with high conviction). By year-end, we lean toward the 2026 high-case scenario (at $4,929 per ounce); similarly, for 2027, we favor the high point of $5,296 per ounce."

On Wednesday, gold futures halted a three-day losing streak with a modest rebound as oil prices retreated and Treasury yields pulled back from overnight highs. The market is closely watching Friday's non-farm payroll report. A strong jobs number could heighten market expectations of Fed rate hikes, which would pressure precious metal prices. Front-month COMEX gold futures for September delivery rose 0.4% to settle at $4,366.30 per ounce, while September silver futures edged up 0.1% to close at $64.723 per ounce.

Central Bank Gold Rush Reshapes Reserve Landscape

Global central banks are restructuring their reserve assets with unprecedented intensity. The latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows gold's share of global official foreign exchange reserves has risen to approximately 27%, surpassing the share of U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996.

The WGC's "2026 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" released June 16 delivered a striking figure: 89% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to continue increasing over the next 12 months, 45% indicated they would add to their own gold holdings in the coming year, and 84% believe gold's share of total global reserves will rise over the next five years. Notably, 74% of surveyed central banks expect the dollar's share of global reserves to decline over the next five years.

European Central Bank data from June 2 shows that as of end-2025, gold accounted for 27% of global central bank reserve assets, up from 20% a year earlier, while the U.S. Treasury share fell from 25% to 22% — gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries for the first time in history to become the world's largest official reserve asset. Central bank gold purchases reached 863 tonnes in 2025, well above the 473-tonne annual average from 2010-2021; in Q1 2026, central banks purchased a net 244 tonnes of gold, exceeding both the previous quarter and the five-year average.

While the IMF notes that gold's rapidly rising value share in official reserves partially reflects a "valuation effect" from surging gold prices, the WGC survey indicates 89% of surveyed central banks expect official gold reserves to continue growing, confirming that structural allocation demand from de-dollarization has become a long-term trend.

Wall Street Giants Turn Bullish with $5,000 Price Targets

Facing the combination of structural central bank buying and the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, top Wall Street investment banks have raised their long-term gold price forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $4,900 by end-2026, driven primarily by central banks' normalized robust allocation of around 50 tonnes per month and market repricing of the rate-cut cycle. Morgan Stanley forecasts gold will break above $5,000, while JPMorgan predicts gold could test the $5,400 to $6,000 range around 2027.

The early-September price plunge revealed the complexity of gold pricing. On September 1-2, spot gold in London fell a cumulative $160 over two sessions, briefly breaching the $4,300 level. The immediate trigger was hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, which lifted the market-priced probability of a September rate hike from below 40% to nearly 60%, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.75%, sharply raising the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold.

More anomalously, gold fell even as escalating Middle East geopolitical conflict pushed oil prices higher—the traditional "buy gold in times of turmoil" logic temporarily failed. Xu Yaxin, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, noted that the suppressing force from rate-hike expectations driven by energy inflation has, in the short term, outweighed the geopolitical safe-haven premium. However, the medium-to-long-term support logic remains intact.

Zhan Dapeng of Guangda Futures believes that U.S. Treasury sustainability issues, damaged dollar credibility, sustained central bank gold purchases, and net inflows into gold ETFs will continue to provide bottom-line support for gold prices. The real tests lie ahead at the September 17 Fed policy meeting and the August non-farm payrolls data due September 4.