Market Analysis

Online quotations reveal the following updates:

**Gemini Cooperation**: Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for Week 46 stand at $1,330/$2,220, while Week 47 is priced at $1,350/$2,250. HPL-SPOT rates for early November are $1,185/$1,935, with late November and early December both quoted at $1,935/$3,135. HPL has issued a late-November price hike notice at $1,900/$3,100.

**MSC + Premier Alliance**: MSC's early November rates are $1,365/$2,265, rising to $1,425/$2,365 for late November. ONE's early November rates are $1,235/$1,935, increasing to $1,625/$2,535 for late November. HMM's Shanghai-Rotterdam early November rates are $1,118/$1,806, while YML's November 1–14 rates are $1,075/$1,900. MSC has announced a late-November price hike at $1,800/$3,000.

**Ocean Alliance**: CMA's Shanghai-Rotterdam early November rates are $1,460/$2,520, rising to $1,760/$3,120 for late November. Early December rates range between $3,520–$3,620/FEU. EMC's early November rates are $1,655/$2,510, increasing to $1,855/$2,810 for late November. OOCL's early November rates range between $2,050–$2,150/FEU, with late November quoted at $1,700/$2,900. CMA has issued a late-November price hike notice at $1,700/$3,000.

**Geopolitical Developments**: Admiral Ossama Rabiee, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, recently convened a meeting with representatives from 20 major shipping companies and agencies to discuss developments in the Red Sea. The authority aims to coordinate future transit plans and schedules, with Rabiee inviting shipping firms to conduct trial voyages.

**Supply Dynamics**: - **China-Europe Base Ports**: November’s weekly average capacity is 286,000 TEU, with Week 45/46/47/48/49 capacities at 310,700/273,000/296,500/270,000/299,900 TEU, respectively. December’s weekly average capacity is 322,900 TEU, with Week 50/51/52/53 capacities at 336,400/299,400/335,600/320,400 TEU. - **Blank Sailings**: November sees 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN (including 4 from MSC/PA Alliance, 1 from Gemini Cooperation, and 5 from Ocean Alliance, with the latter’s TBN expected to convert to a blank sailing). December has 6 TBNs.

**U.S.-China Trade Talks**: The U.S. will remove the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods while maintaining a one-year suspension of the 24% retaliatory tariffs. The U.S. will also suspend its Section 301 investigations into China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for one year, prompting China to reciprocate. The tariff reduction is expected to boost U.S.-China trade and support demand recovery on U.S. routes, indirectly stabilizing Europe route prices.

**December Contracts**: - **Pricing Trends**: With the December contract still distant from delivery, market focus remains on pricing dynamics. Shipping lines are expected to maintain higher freight rates to secure stable annual revenue ahead of long-term contract negotiations. - **Price Hikes**: CMA, MSC, and HPL have announced late-November hikes ranging between $3,000–$3,100/FEU. Maersk’s late-November rates are $1,350/$2,250, while MSC’s are $1,425/$2,365, averaging around $2,300/FEU. Maersk has announced a December rate hike to $3,200/FEU. - **Valuation**: If three rounds of hikes materialize at $300/FEU each, late-December rates could reach $3,000/FEU, with the December contract’s valuation ceiling at 2,100–2,200 points. Investors should adjust expectations based on subsequent hike announcements.

**February 2026 Contracts**: Potential divergence exists due to the later Chinese New Year (February 2026 vs. January 2025), which may delay shipping lines’ pricing strategies. If extended high rates persist into January 2026, the February contract could outperform December’s.

**Market Data (as of November 5, 2025)**: - **Futures Positions**: Total open interest for European container shipping futures stands at 75,038 lots, with daily volume at 54,169 lots. - **Contract Prices**: EC2602 at 1,652.00, EC2604 at 1,199.60, EC2606 at 1,426.10, EC2608 at 1,497.10, EC2610 at 1,142.80, EC2512 at 1,946.00. - **SCFI Rates (October 31)**: Shanghai-Europe at $1,344/TEU, Shanghai-US West Coast at $2,647/FEU, Shanghai-US East Coast at $3,438/FEU. - **SCFIS Rates (November 3)**: Shanghai-Europe at 1,208.71 points, Shanghai-US West Coast at 1,267.15 points.

**2025 Container Ship Deliveries**: As of October 31, 218 ships (1.784 million TEU) have been delivered, including 67 vessels (1.008 million TEU) in the 12,000–16,999 TEU range and 11 vessels (236,320 TEU) exceeding 17,000 TEU.

**Strategy**: - **Single Position**: December contracts show a bullish trend. - **Arbitrage**: No current opportunities.

**Risks**: - **Downside**: Unexpected economic downturns in Europe/U.S., sharp oil price declines, higher-than-expected ship deliveries, inadequate vessel idling, or resolution of the Red Sea crisis. - **Upside**: Economic recovery, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity cuts by shipping lines, or prolonged Red Sea disruptions leading to rerouting.