Abstract

Mondelez International will report its latest quarterly results on October 29, 2026, Post-Mkt; investors will watch revenue growth near the low single digits alongside earnings cadence into year-end.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 9.98 billion US dollars, up 2.78% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.71, down 0.45% year over year. Management earlier reiterated a full-year revenue growth floor of at least 2% and signaled profit pressure in the third quarter with benefits back-end loaded into the fourth quarter; no company-issued gross margin or net margin forecast for this quarter has been disclosed. The main business is expected to be driven by steady price/mix, moderating cost headwinds, and new product launches to sustain shelf momentum. The most visible near-term opportunity lies in biscuits, supported by innovation such as the gluten-free Ritz launch in the United States; last quarter biscuits delivered 4.74 billion US dollars, and segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Mondelez International posted quarterly revenue of 9.36 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 42.61%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.55 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 16.55%, and adjusted EPS of 0.73, unchanged year over year. A notable highlight was a revenue beat versus internal estimates from the prior period’s consensus alongside adjusted EPS coming in 0.05 above expectations, underpinned by a 4.13% year-over-year increase in total revenue. By business line, biscuits generated 4.74 billion US dollars, chocolate 2.72 billion US dollars, gum and candy 1.07 billion US dollars, meals 606.00 million US dollars, and beverages 226.00 million US dollars; segment-level year-over-year growth rates were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Drivers This Quarter

Price and mix remain important supports to revenue in the current quarter, while volumes are expected to stabilize or improve modestly where promotional intensity and shelf execution have been stepped up. The company has indicated that profitability will be softer in the third quarter before improving into the fourth quarter, suggesting a deliberate cadence of reinvestment in advertising and promotions and a timing effect from cost and hedge flows. In that context, the current quarter’s EPS consensus of 0.71 implies an essentially flat year-on-year trend, with modest downside from incrementally higher marketing spend offset by cost-savings and operational productivity. The reported consensus revenue of 9.98 billion US dollars, up 2.78% year over year, reflects steady demand across core brands and incremental distribution gains. In the near term, seasonal activation, expanded pack architecture, and increased shelf visibility in value and convenience channels are expected to support traffic and trial. Execution against these initiatives is particularly relevant in the United States and select international markets, where category momentum has been uneven through the year and retailers are prioritizing availability, price integrity, and differentiated innovation. Expense phasing matters for interpretation of the quarter’s margin profile. The expected tilt of profit contribution toward the fourth quarter means investors should anticipate a normalizing gross-to-operating margin bridge in this print, not necessarily a steady-state run-rate. The EBIT estimate for the quarter stands at 1.27 billion US dollars, down 1.57% year over year on forecasts, highlighting a likely temporary mix and investment effect rather than a structural margin reset, consistent with management’s prior commentary on quarterly cadence.

Most Promising Business This Quarter

Biscuits represent the strongest near-term engine, given their scale, innovation cadence, and channel reach. Last quarter, biscuits delivered 4.74 billion US dollars, led by core franchises and supported by incremental flavor and format extensions. The current quarter benefits from category-building news in the United States, including the launch of gluten-free Ritz Original crackers across Walmart and Albertsons with broader distribution planned for next year, which should aid incremental trial and household penetration. The biscuits pipeline also stands to benefit from sustained investment behind icons and adjacent platforms that reinforce premium trade-up and permissible indulgence. While segment-level year-over-year growth metrics were not disclosed, the combination of price realization, targeted promotions, and incremental shelf presence suggests biscuits are positioned to modestly outpace overall corporate growth this quarter. Execution quality in this segment also tends to have a favorable halo on other snacking adjacencies, enhancing traffic and basket size where cross-promotions or co-merchandising are deployed. Chocolate should remain resilient despite uneven input inflation and promotional variability by market. Portfolio stewardship, selective premiumization, and disciplined SKU management help sustain mixed performance without overextending in volatile sub-categories. That positioning provides optionality for the holiday season while maintaining flexibility around pack architecture and price points.

Key Stock-Price Swing Factors

Earnings cadence is a central driver of short-term stock moves, given the company’s framing of third-quarter margin pressure and a stronger fourth quarter. The degree to which the current quarter’s gross margin and operating expense phasing track expectations will influence how investors extrapolate into the fourth quarter and 2027. A print that validates revenue resilience with controlled promotional elasticity, alongside clear line-of-sight to margin recovery, would likely be interpreted constructively by the market. Promotional architecture and marketing reinvestment levels will be scrutinized, particularly where retailers are pushing for sharper price points and feature support. Evidence that higher A&P is converting to share gains, improving velocities, or successful new product sell-through would help justify the EPS trajectory implied by consensus into late 2026. Conversely, any signal of weaker conversion or elevated trade expense pressure could weigh on sentiment, even if management reiterates the full-year framework. External variables include the balance of price and volume as households continue to navigate budgets and category choices. The market will also monitor any commentary on cost flows and hedging that affect the quarterly gross-to-operating margin translation. Additionally, investors are attuned to potential demand moderation narratives in consumer foods that surfaced earlier this year; clear messaging on consumption trends, household penetration, and channel performance can either mitigate or amplify those debates in the short term.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate recent commentary, with a clear tilt toward positive ratings and price targets; across prominent notes during the current period, bullish opinions substantially outnumber bearish calls. RBC Capital’s Nik Modi maintained a Buy rating with a 66 US dollars price target, emphasizing confidence in the earnings path underpinned by steady execution and disciplined capital allocation. Bernstein’s Alexia Burling Howard reiterated Buy with a 74 US dollars target, underscoring operational improvements and the durability of branded demand supported by ongoing innovation and brand-building. Morgan Stanley’s Megan Alexander reiterated Buy with a 71 US dollars target, citing improving fundamentals and a Western Europe performance turnaround that underpins the earnings recovery trajectory into late 2026 and 2027. BTIG reiterated Buy and subsequently lifted its target to 74 US dollars, reflecting conviction that the revenue and earnings cadence into the fourth quarter remains achievable with incremental upside from innovation and mix. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating with a 71 US dollars target while acknowledging a near-term EPS cadence consistent with corporate guidance and consensus. Wells Fargo maintained Overweight with a 65 US dollars target, highlighting an attractive risk-reward profile anchored in stable growth and a credible cost discipline framework. The majority view centers on three themes. First, revenue visibility is viewed as constructive in the near term, supported by measured price/mix and pipeline deliveries such as gluten-free Ritz. Second, analysts accept the management framing of third-quarter profit pressure with improvement into the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of marketing reinvestment and seasonal activation to sustain brand momentum. Third, medium-term earnings trajectory into 2027 is seen as intact, with ongoing productivity and portfolio focus expected to help normalize margins as cost normalization and hedge timing converge. In aggregate, the bullish camp argues that consensus expecting 9.98 billion US dollars of revenue, up 2.78% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.71 remains a reasonable baseline, with upside dependent on proof points in execution and margin formation. The emphasis is on tactical delivery in the current quarter and credible guidance bridging to the fourth quarter, rather than wholesale changes in strategy. Many price targets between 65 and 74 US dollars reflect confidence in earnings progression and balance-sheet flexibility, while leaving room for validation in the next two prints.