Abstract
Tronox Holdings will release its fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026 Post Market; this preview outlines consensus vs company indications for revenue and earnings, compares the previous quarter’s performance with current-quarter forecasts, and distills institutional views to clarify where expectations are converging ahead of the print.Market Forecast
Consensus points to a soft top line, with analysts expecting around $688.40 million in fourth-quarter revenue and an adjusted EPS near -$0.47. Tronox Holdings has indicated a stronger internal view on revenue, pre-announcing approximately $730.00 million for the quarter; the financial-forecast dataset implies a $705.02 million midpoint-like estimate with a 1.11% year-over-year increase, and a forecast adjusted EPS of -$0.47 with a year-over-year change of -1000.48%. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin for the quarter are not provided.The main business remains anchored by titanium dioxide pigment, which delivered $550.00 million of revenue in the last reported quarter, and the company’s plan to close its Fuzhou pigment facility suggests a near-term emphasis on efficient capacity and product mix to underpin margin trajectory. Within the portfolio, zircon contributed $59.00 million last quarter; while segment-level year-over-year data are not disclosed, management’s actions signal that mix upgrades and portfolio simplification could support incremental contribution from zircon and related byproducts this quarter.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Tronox Holdings reported revenue of $699.00 million, a gross profit margin of 7.44%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $99.00 million for a net profit margin of -14.16%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.46; revenue declined 13.06% year over year and adjusted EPS decreased 253.85% year over year. Operating performance was pressured, with EBIT at -$43.00 million as margin compression outweighed cost containment despite stable sequential volumes into quarter-end. The main business continued to be led by titanium dioxide pigment at $550.00 million, complemented by $90.00 million in other products and $59.00 million in zircon; the total top line contracted 13.06% year over year as pricing and cost headwinds outpaced incremental efficiencies.Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Titanium dioxide pigment
Tronox Holdings’ fourth-quarter setup is defined by a visible divergence between external and internal revenue expectations. The company’s indication of approximately $730.00 million suggests a sequential lift versus the prior quarter’s $699.00 million and sits above the $688.40 million consensus. On the profitability line, the forecast dataset implies adjusted EPS of -$0.47 and EBIT of -$34.73 million, a narrower loss than the prior quarter’s -$43.00 million EBIT, pointing to modest operating leverage even in a constrained pricing environment. The announced permanent closure of the Fuzhou pigment plant in China is a notable structural action; while any associated charges will be a watch item in reported results, the ongoing cost base and asset footprint should benefit from higher utilization at more efficient sites and lower exposure to structurally high-cost capacity. This combination—slightly stronger revenue and tighter cost control—could lift gross margin from the prior quarter’s 7.44% on a sequential basis, though the degree of improvement depends on realized pricing and energy/feedstock cost trends in the quarter. Management’s operational focus this quarter will be judged on the balance of price/volume realization in pigment, inventory discipline, and early evidence that footprint rationalization is starting to compress unit costs.Most promising business: Zircon and ancillary products
Zircon and the broader “other products” bucket, which combined delivered $149.00 million last quarter ($59.00 million zircon and $90.00 million other), remain a key lever for mix and cash margin. Although segment-level year-over-year percentages are not disclosed, the revenue base is sufficiently material to affect consolidated margins if realized prices and volumes hold or improve. The framework heading into the quarter is straightforward: if pigment margins stabilize, incremental contribution from zircon and associated byproducts can translate into a higher blended margin without requiring outsized volume growth. Operationally, contracting dynamics and shipment timing can create intra-quarter variability; investors will look for clean revenue recognition across these categories with limited deferrals into the first quarter of 2026. A steady performance here, combined with the pigment footprint actions, would support the case for sequential EBIT improvement from -$43.00 million last quarter toward the -$34.73 million forecast for this quarter.Key stock-price swing factors this quarter
Guidance quality versus the pre-announced revenue figure will be central to how shares trade on the print. If reported revenue clusters near the indicated ~$730.00 million and management frames a credible path to gross margin uplift from the prior quarter’s 7.44%, investors are likely to look through near-term EPS losses toward operating leverage in 2026. The magnitude and classification of any charges associated with the Fuzhou plant closure may also drive the headline GAAP result; clarity on cash versus non-cash components and anticipated annualized savings will matter for valuation frameworks. In addition, the bridge from the prior quarter’s -$0.46 adjusted EPS to this quarter’s -$0.47 estimate will be dissected for price/volume versus cost components; a narrower-than-expected EBIT loss relative to the -$34.73 million forecast could be a positive surprise even if EPS is negative. Finally, balance-sheet color—particularly working-capital movements tied to finished goods and raw materials—will be scrutinized as investors assess the durability of any sequential improvements implied by the revenue beat versus consensus expectations.Analyst Opinions
The balance of institutional opinions over the past six months skews bullish. Among the more visible updates, Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating while raising its price target to $8, citing improving revenue visibility and a path to margin normalization as restructuring underpins the cost base. Truist reaffirmed a Buy with a $6 price target, highlighting the potential for sequential operating improvement as lower-cost assets carry a larger share of production and as the company focuses on mix in pigment and ancillary products. Alembic Global also maintained a Buy, anchoring on the notion that self-help—cost discipline, footprint optimization, and targeted mix—can bridge the gap to positive operating income despite a still-challenging earnings baseline. Countervailing signals, while present earlier in the period, have softened as at least one prior bear shifted to a neutral stance; the prevailing tone from the named institutions is that the pre-announced revenue trajectory and restructuring plans increase the probability of incremental margin recovery into 2026.This bullish consensus rests on three core pillars that map cleanly to the numbers in focus this quarter. First, the top line: company-indicated revenue of $730.00 million is not only ahead of the $688.40 million consensus but also above the $705.02 million forecast baseline, pointing to better-than-feared demand and/or improved shipment timing in the quarter. Second, margins and earnings: while the quarter’s adjusted EPS is still projected at -$0.47, a narrower forecast EBIT loss of -$34.73 million versus the prior quarter’s -$43.00 million supports the case that operating leverage is beginning to work at the consolidated level; bulls expect this to translate into a higher gross margin than the prior quarter’s 7.44% as mix and efficiencies accrue. Third, structural actions: by removing a high-cost site from the pigment network, management improves the future cost curve, creating an environment where even modestly stable realized pricing can produce measurable margin expansion; institutions argue this raises confidence in forward estimates and supports a higher target-price framework.
Looking through this lens, bullish analysts are likely to focus their validation tests on four datapoints when results arrive on February 18, 2026 Post Market. They will want revenue close to the ~$730.00 million indication, gross margin progressing from 7.44%, EBIT tracking closer to the -$34.73 million forecast than the prior quarter’s -$43.00 million, and commentary that quantifies savings and capital redeployment associated with the Fuzhou closure. Confirmation on these items would reinforce the constructive stance and help justify Buy ratings centered on a recalibration of normalized earnings power once restructuring costs fade. The conviction argument is not tied to a single quarter’s EPS, which remains negative, but rather to tangible sequential improvements that set up a cleaner cost base and a more resilient product mix for the next several quarters.