Why Set the GDP Growth Target at Around 5%?

Deep News
Jan 26

The government work report delivered by Mayor Yin Yong yesterday outlined a "task list" for 2026, establishing the main expected targets for this year's economic and social development. Among them, the regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2026 is projected to grow by around 5%, general public budget revenue is expected to increase by approximately 4%, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate is to be kept within 5%. The GDP growth target of around 5% has drawn significant attention from various sectors. The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period; doing economic work well and taking a solid first step in the development of this period is of great significance and has long-term implications. While the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of this year's development environment are increasing, Beijing's economic fundamentals—characterized by stability, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and great potential—remain positive. Factors supporting high-quality development are accumulating; Beijing has the conditions, capability, confidence, and底气 to address various risks and challenges in its development, continuously consolidate the trend of economic recovery and improvement, and achieve a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Overall, the GDP growth rate of around 5% is a fundamental requirement for initiating the development of all endeavors in the capital during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, balancing both "necessity" and "feasibility." First, setting the growth rate at "around 5%" is necessary to align with the long-term objectives for 2035. Based on practical development calculations, if the average annual economic growth rate over the next decade reaches about 4.5%, the goal of doubling the total economic output by 2035 can be achieved. A growth rate of around 5% helps to build a buffer, avoiding concentrating pressure in the later years of the period. Second, setting the growth rate at "around 5%" is necessary to fulfill the capital's responsibilities. A large vessel bears a heavy load; a fine horse gallops far. The report of the 13th Beijing Municipal Party Congress used the term "taking the lead" to describe the duty and mission Beijing should undertake in the new journey towards the second centenary goal: having already taken the lead in comprehensively building a moderately prosperous society during the process of achieving the first centenary goal, Beijing must also take the lead and stay at the forefront in the new journey towards the second centenary goal, striving to be among the first to basically achieve socialist modernization. This is the requirement of the new era and the historical responsibility entrusted to Beijing by the Party and the people. As the nation's premier city, Beijing shoulders this weighty responsibility, guiding all aspects of its work to set examples, establish benchmarks, and raise standards. As the capital, Beijing actively undertakes the responsibility of a major economic province to shoulder a significant load. Third, setting the growth rate at "around 5%" is also supported by realistic and feasible conditions. In 2025, Beijing's total economic output surpassed the 5 trillion yuan threshold. This provides quantitative support for the GDP growth target of around 5%. Simultaneously, Beijing's vigorous development of new quality productive forces, upgrading of traditional industries, strategic layout of future industries, and consolidation and strengthening of the real economy's foundation have played a qualitative, demonstrative, and leading role for the national economic development. A set of data outlines the "speed" of Beijing's AI industry scale leap: the core AI industry scale in the city is expected to reach 450 billion yuan in 2025. The city is home to over 2,500 AI enterprises, and the number of large models that have completed filing has reached 209. Doubao's monthly active users surpassed 172 million in the third quarter of 2025, becoming the domestic native AI application with the highest MAU. These "hardcore" figures support a more complete layout system for the entire smart industry chain. A set of applications demonstrates the "depth" of AI integration with culture, commerce, tourism, sports, and exhibitions: "Robotics + cultural tourism consumption" has been implemented in over 10 cities across the country, including Beijing's Summer Palace; in the next two years, the market scale for "device-side intelligence" developed in Beijing will experience explosive growth, bringing people more realistic and immersive voice interaction experiences; the "AI Tumor Immunotherapy Drug Autonomous Design Platform" independently developed by the "Zhongguancun Two Institutes" has been officially launched, and its incubated global first-of-its-kind next-generation tumor immunotherapy candidate drug "YX212" has shown excellent potential in pre-clinical research... The high-end and ubiquitous application of AI intelligence makes modern services superior and stronger. Looking ahead to 2026, Beijing has sufficient底气 and confidence to achieve the GDP growth target of around 5%, supported by a series of corresponding policies. For example, in 2026, Beijing will strengthen its capacity as a source of scientific and technological innovation and strive to seize the high ground in sci-tech development. It will also smooth the virtuous cycle of education, science and technology, and talent, enhance the efficiency of sci-tech achievement transformation, and remove bottlenecks in the conversion process. It aims to develop and expand high-precision industries, extend the advantages of modern services, and improve the integration level of these two sectors... As the core indicator of national economic accounting, setting a growth rate of around 5% guides the economic and social development of a region, connects to the national economy and people's livelihood, balances possibility and necessity, and is both proactive and realistic. In the next five years, Beijing will fully tap its economic potential, adhere to the dual approach of policy support and reform/innovation, closely combine investment in physical capital and human capital, and rely on strengthening its internal capabilities to cope with external challenges. The formulation of the target of around 5% can be said to be a concentrated reflection of this megacity's understanding of the principles governing economic work under new circumstances.

Reading through this year's government work report and plan report, one can easily sense a certain rhythm, akin to the pulse of the city; the interplay between "fast" and "slow" seems to produce a harmonious chord for the city. Among the arrangements for 2026's socio-economic development in these reports, some are "urgent," some "leisurely," some "pioneering," and others "long-term oriented," described in the plan report as "grasping long-term trends." Taking transportation as an example, arrangements in this area focus on improving the refinement and intelligence of urban governance, conveying a strong sense of "fast." This "fast" aligns with public expectations: in the integration of bus and subway networks, the proportion of bus-to-rail transfers within 50 meters will reach 93% in 2026, representing a "fast" connection; in easing congestion, 53 dead-end roads were打通 in 2025, and 24 overdue projects were completed, representing a "fast" arrival; in building the smart transportation foundation, 150 new green wave corridors for traffic signals and 1,000 new connected signal lights will be added in 2026, representing a "fast" enabled by intelligence. Looking at administrative efficiency, 2026 will see an expansion of the overall list of key items for "efficiently handling matters," achieving policy storage in "one repository," public access for "one-stop searching," and "one-stop" fulfillment of matters—these three "ones" vividly reflect the urgency of the "Beijing Service" initiative to intensify and accelerate the optimization of the business environment. Furthermore, the report mentions the "timeliness" of immediate response to complaints, the "degree" of escalated responses, and the "effectiveness" of coordinated reporting. Particularly noteworthy is the plan report's proposal, in its deployment for actively serving and integrating into the national unified market, to promote the city-wide validity of new energy logistics vehicle permits within the Fifth Ring Road in 2026, thereby enhancing the last-mile delivery network. The acceleration of logistics is like activating the nerve endings of the city's operation one by one; a "flowing capital" will truly integrate into a "flowing China." The character "fast" is also reflected in the significant leap in sci-tech innovation efficacy. The plan report, in its deployment for innovation-driven development, points out the need to accelerate the construction of the permanent campus for the National Laboratory, promote the operational launch of the Beijing Tsinghua Frontier Cross-Innovation Research Institute, speed up the development of the Beijing Peking University National Key Sci-Tech Innovation Research Institute, and efficiently manage and operate the major sci-tech infrastructure of the Huairou Comprehensive National Science Center. The report reflects both the accelerated quality improvement of a megacity addressing the most direct, fundamental, and realistic interests of its people, and the ease and leisure of a livable city. For instance, the report summarizes the continuous improvement in green and livable standards in 2025, with a cumulative total of over 400 kilometers of waterfront slow-traffic pathways built along rivers like the Yongding River. In the arrangements for revitalizing consumption through multiple measures in 2026, it explicitly proposes enhancing the influence of brands like "Strolling Beijing" and "Beijing Micro-getaway." Thus, one can easily sense that Beijing in 2026 will form a rhythmic呼应 between the "fast" of handling affairs and travel, and the "slow" of getaways and livability. The report displays the rhythm of a megacity where "movement and stillness are in harmony."

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