In a recent dialogue, the question of how long the current global boom in new energy infrastructure will last was posed to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.,Ltd. (CATL) Chairman Zeng Yuqun.

Zeng Yuqun first questioned the definition of a "boom period." It was clarified that a period of sustained double-digit growth over multiple years, such as the approximate 40% compound annual growth rate for power batteries over the past five years, constitutes such a boom.

In response, Zeng Yuqun highlighted the vast remaining growth potential. He noted that the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is only around 20%, with trucks below 10% and ships and aircraft even less. Emerging industries like robotics currently lack adequate battery solutions. Furthermore, the transition from fossil fuels necessitates massive grid transformation, creating enormous opportunities for energy storage. He also pointed to AI-driven data centers (AIDC), where every token represents energy consumption, a market with virtually limitless growth potential unlike the physical constraints of real estate.

He acknowledged that boundaries exist but suggested they could be a thousand times larger than today's, potentially expanding until around 2060 when global carbon neutrality goals are met.

Expanding Ambitions

The discussion centered on CATL's dramatic expansion beyond its core battery business. The company is transforming from a battery manufacturer into a foundational infrastructure provider for a new energy society. Its reach now extends across transportation (commercial vehicles, ships, aircraft, battery swapping networks), power (energy storage systems), the grid (microgrids, grid-forming storage), industry (green energy solutions for heavy industry), critical minerals (resource security and recycling), and AI (investments in data center power supply).

Zeng Yuqun stated that all expansions align with the company's vision to become a "zero-carbon technology company making outstanding contributions to humanity's new energy cause." He outlined three criteria for entering a new field: a large addressable market, high barriers to entry, and adjacent technology where CATL can leverage existing expertise to achieve a unique or superior offering.

Technological Frontiers

On battery technology, Zeng Yuqun downplayed the near-term prospects for solid-state batteries, describing them as not a "holy grail." He explained significant technical hurdles, such as solid-solid interface issues, remain. He emphasized that commercialization is event-driven, dependent on specific technical breakthroughs, not time-driven. The technology readiness level for solid-state batteries is currently low, with product and commercial viability even further off. He sees more immediate potential in advancing existing lithium battery technologies, such as increasing voltage systems.

Sustained Growth Trajectory

Reiterating his view on the sector's longevity, Zeng Yuqun believes the new energy construction boom, characterized by double-digit growth, will persist for many years due to the low penetration rates across multiple transport modes and the vast needs in energy storage and digital infrastructure.

Avoiding the Pitfalls of Other Sectors

When asked if the power battery industry could suffer the same fate as solar PV, which is plagued by losses due to cutthroat competition, Zeng Yuqun acknowledged the risk. He attributed the PV industry's problems primarily to insufficient intellectual property protection, leading to rampant copying and price wars. He stated that the lithium battery industry has avoided this "worst outcome" largely because CATL has upheld pricing discipline. The company combats low-quality, low-price competition by focusing on intellectual property protection, advocating for stronger regulations, and building ecosystems—such as its battery-swapping model where batteries are leased, not sold—that emphasize quality and long-term value.

The Zero-Carbon Vision

Zeng Yuqun elaborated on the shift from being a "battery company" to a "zero-carbon technology company." He described batteries as a foundational pillar for a new energy society, but just one of several needed. The company is actively building or acquiring capabilities to fill out this framework. He identified energy storage as the key technology for grid flexibility改造. While China's robust main grid offers limited immediate need for independent microgrids, CATL is developing such technology domestically to create standards and advanced products for overseas markets where electricity costs are much higher and demand for resilient, distributed power is strong.

Securing Critical Minerals

Zeng Yuqun dismissed the notion that new energy simply shifts dependency from oil to minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, arguing that these minerals are recyclable, unlike combusted fossil fuels. He projected that by around 2042, 50% of mineral needs could be met from recycled batteries. To ensure supply chain security amid geopolitical volatility, CATL is taking a more direct approach by establishing its own resource company while maintaining partnerships.

Commitment to Globalization

Despite a fragmenting global landscape, Zeng Yuqun stressed that CATL "must promote globalization." He is not overly concerned about "teaching the apprentice to starve the master," drawing a parallel to Europe's enduring leadership in internal combustion engines despite decades of technology transfer. He believes maintaining a technological edge through continuous innovation is the answer. The company navigates local content and partnership requirements through business model innovation and flexible arrangements with clients, prioritizing long-term commercial relationships over political cycles.

The Core Driver: Commercial Viability

Zeng Yuqun emphasized that commercial success is the essential engine for realizing the zero-carbon vision. Without profit, the ecosystem cannot attract participants and thrive. The company's strategy is market-driven, "grazing where the water and grass are," focusing on creating value for customers worldwide.

The Imperative of Striving

Addressing corporate culture, Zeng Yuqun pointed to Silicon Valley's intense work ethic as a benchmark for innovation. He believes that in the face of fierce global competition, where CATL does not necessarily hold superior resources or intellect, relentless effort is non-negotiable. The most time-consuming decisions for the company have been on technology roadmaps, such as whether to pursue sodium-ion or solid-state batteries. Looking ahead, his greatest concern for achieving the grand vision is internal: building organizational capability, talent density, and a culture of deep, passionate learning to avoid the dangers of superficial understanding.