CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) rose more than 4%. As of writing, the stock was up 4.21% to HK$40.14, with a turnover of HK$534 million. On the news front, recent tensions in the Middle East have led to force majeure factors affecting the primary aluminum industry. J.P. Morgan believes the market is underestimating the risks of supply disruptions in the aluminum sector. The Middle East produces 6.8 million tons of aluminum annually, with a net export surplus of about 5 million tons, accounting for 7% of global aluminum production. According to J.P. Morgan's estimates, if substantial supply disruptions occur in the region, aluminum prices could quickly climb to $4,000 per ton, making it the base metal with the strongest upside asymmetry. Rising energy costs, which constitute one-third of smelting expenses, along with increasing shipping costs, are expected to further drive up aluminum prices. The firm suggests that CHINAHONGQIAO would be a core beneficiary if aluminum supply is disrupted. Guotai Junan Securities noted that escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have heightened risk aversion among investors, with frequent disruptions on the supply side. Qatar Aluminum has initiated a shutdown due to suspended natural gas supply, while Bahrain Aluminum faces transportation obstacles amid regional conflicts. Additionally, an aluminum plant in Mozambique previously announced plans for maintenance-related shutdowns due to power contract issues. On the demand side, recovery is still underway, and domestic social inventories continue to accumulate. If geopolitical tensions persist, expectations of tightening global primary aluminum supply remain strong, providing substantial upward momentum for aluminum prices.