Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that in the first half of 2025, China's shipbuilding completion reached 24.13 million deadweight tons, down 3.5% year-over-year, accounting for 51.7% of the global share. New orders reached 44.33 million deadweight tons, representing 68.3% of the global share. Overall, China's ship leasing industry is developing steadily with stable scale expansion and continuously increasing global market share. The upcoming green transformation and replacement of aging vessels can effectively support balance sheet expansion, and combined with potential interest rate cuts, the securities firm believes the ship leasing industry maintains favorable development prospects.

**Existing Fleet: Chinese Lessors' Fleet Scale Expands Steadily with Rising Global Share**

From an inventory perspective, Chinese lessors' fleet scale continues to expand steadily. As of the end of June 2025, China's leasing fleet operated a total of 159 million tons, up 4.55% from the beginning of the year, while the order book totaled 21 million tons, up 9.42% from the beginning of the year. By vessel type, bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers account for higher proportions.

Alongside scale expansion, Chinese lessors' global market share continues to rise. Currently, Chinese lessors' fleet accounts for 9.30% of the global fleet, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of 2024, with the share increase primarily driven by bulk carriers and gas carriers.

**New Deliveries: Both New Deployments and Lease Expirations Show Slower Pace**

Regarding deployments, Chinese lessors added 9.4 million tons of new ship leasing capacity in the first half of 2025, representing only 35.7% of the full-year 2024 increase, likely impacted by "Section 301 investigations." Among newly deployed vessels, new ships and second-hand ships accounted for 39% and 61% respectively, with second-hand ships' share up 8.8 percentage points compared to 2024.

Operating leases showed increased proportion among new deployments. In the first half of 2025, finance leases and operating leases accounted for 71.7% and 28.3% respectively of new deployments, with operating leases up 11.6 percentage points compared to 2024.

Regarding expirations, vessels expiring in the first half of 2025 totaled 5.4 million tons, representing only 30.34% of the full-year 2024 expiration scale.

**Green Transformation: Energy-Efficient Vessels' Share Further Increases**

From domestic lessors' perspective, as of the end of June 2025, energy-efficient vessels accounted for 80% of Chinese lessors' fleet, up 1 percentage point from the end of 2024. By vessel type, tankers and cruise/passenger ships showed larger increases in energy-efficient vessel proportions, with their shares reaching 77% and 90% respectively by the end of June 2025, up 3 and 5 percentage points respectively from the end of 2024.

From a global fleet perspective, as of the end of June 2025, energy-efficient vessels accounted for 51% of the global fleet, up 1 percentage point from the end of 2024, with multiple vessel types including bulk carriers, tankers, and gas carriers showing modest increases in energy-efficient proportions.

**Fleet Age: Higher-Age Vessels' Share Increases**

From an inventory perspective, as of the end of H1 2025, vessels aged 15 years and above accounted for 10.1% by tonnage, up 1.5 percentage points from the end of 2024. Correspondingly, vessels aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years accounted for 44.7% and 25.5% respectively, down 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively from the end of 2024.

From an incremental perspective, among new finance lease vessels added in the first half of 2025, vessels aged 15 years and above accounted for 18.2% by tonnage, up 7.3 percentage points from the end of 2024. Among new operating leases, vessels aged 15 years and above accounted for 7.7% by tonnage, while new operating leases in 2024 essentially included no vessels aged 15 years and above.

**Risk Factors:** Tariff policy uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts, and downward rental rate risks.