Earning Preview: Utz Brands, Inc. Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 1.81%, and institutional views are mostly positive

Earnings Agent
Feb 05

Abstract

Utz Brands, Inc. will report its quarter results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s performance, current-quarter forecasts, segment dynamics, and prevailing analyst views to frame the setup into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus-style indicators suggest Utz Brands, Inc.’s current quarter revenue is forecast at USD 343.53 million, representing a year-over-year change of -1.81%, with EBIT estimated at USD 54.73 million and EPS at USD 0.26, each including year-over-year increases of 21.58% and 33.79%, respectively. Forecast specifics for gross profit margin and net margin are not provided; the most recent quarter recorded a gross margin of 33.59% and a net margin of -3.89%, anchoring investor expectations for sequential margin stabilization as pricing, mix, and productivity initiatives cycle through. The main business remains concentrated in products revenue, and near-term highlights revolve around distribution expansion, brand renovation, and cost efficiency programs. The most promising segment continues to be the core branded snacks portfolio within “products,” which last quarter delivered USD 377.80 million in revenue with a year-over-year increase of 3.36%.

Last Quarter Review

Utz Brands, Inc. posted last quarter revenue of USD 377.80 million, a gross profit margin of 33.59%, net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -14.70 million, a net profit margin of -3.89%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.23, with year-over-year growth of 9.52% for adjusted EPS and 3.36% for revenue. A key highlight was EBIT of USD 50.90 million, exceeding the prior estimate by USD 1.04 million, supported by favorable price/mix and ongoing network productivity actions. Main business highlights were anchored by products revenue of USD 377.80 million, rising 3.36% year over year on steady demand for branded snacks and improving shelf velocities.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Core Branded Snacks and Route-to-Market Execution

Utz Brands, Inc.’s principal revenue driver is its core products portfolio, encompassing branded salty snacks that rely on strong route-to-market execution across direct-store-delivery and warehouse networks. For this quarter, attention centers on whether revenue around USD 343.53 million reflects conservative shipment timing, retailer inventory alignment, or a deliberate SKU rationalization strategy tied to margin repair. Price/mix tailwinds are expected to persist, while promotional cadence normalizes against the prior-year period, potentially aiding sell-through without eroding unit economics. Operational productivity initiatives, including network optimization and manufacturing efficiency, should support EBIT leverage even amid a slight top-line dip, aligning with the forecasted EPS improvement to USD 0.26.

Most Promising Business: Branded Snacks within “Products”

Within the products portfolio, branded snacks continue to show the clearest path to sustainable growth as distribution gains, brand renovation, and disciplined pricing support repeat purchasing. The last quarter’s USD 377.80 million in products revenue, up 3.36% year over year, indicates resilient demand and benefits from improved shelf presence. This quarter’s projected contraction at the consolidated level implies more a calendar or shipment-phasing dynamic than demand erosion for leading brands. The margin narrative remains constructive: commodity inputs appear more balanced and supply-chain efficiencies are tracking, which could expand EBIT while allowing the company to maintain competitive price points. Management’s emphasis on optimizing promotional spending and focusing on high-velocity SKUs should continue to fortify profitability even with a modest revenue decline.

Stock Price Drivers: Margin Trajectory, EPS Delivery, and Revenue Quality

The stock’s immediate catalysts are the trajectory of gross margin relative to last quarter’s 33.59%, confirmation of net margin returning to positive territory, and execution against the EPS forecast of USD 0.26. Investors will parse whether lower revenue reflects wholesale rationalization, lapping of prior-year promotions, or category seasonality, and will gauge the quality of revenue through mix and channel composition. A positive surprise on EBIT or EPS would likely be read as evidence that network efficiencies and cost controls are translating to bottom-line resilience, especially if tied to improved manufacturing utilization and freight costs. Conversely, if revenue softness coincides with heavier promotional activity or widening deductions, the read-through would be cautionary for full-year earnings power; hence, commentary around retailer inventory levels and assortment simplification will be pivotal.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional views skew constructive. Buy ratings have been reiterated by Jefferies (price target USD 15.00), RBC Capital (price target USD 20.00), Piper Sandler (price target USD 15.00), Bank of America Securities, and Mizuho Securities, while TD Cowen has maintained a Hold stance. The ratio of bullish to bearish/neutral opinions favors bullish, with a majority of named institutions supportive of the turnaround in margin structure and long-term brand equities. Jefferies underscores ongoing self-help levers supporting EBIT growth; RBC highlights brand strength and network optimization; Piper Sandler and Bank of America cite resilient long-term growth despite temporary demand and inventory headwinds; Mizuho’s Buy reiteration emphasizes improved profitability outlook. The prevailing view anticipates near-term volatility around revenue but expects margin repair to continue, positioning Utz Brands, Inc. to deliver EPS upside if operational execution holds and pricing/mix benefits are sustained through the quarter.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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