According to data from Sigmaintell, global shipments of OLED smartphone panels are projected to reach approximately 890 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Flexible OLED shipments are expected to account for about 690 million units, growing by around 9.6%. This growth is primarily driven by four factors: product mix upgrades on the demand side, capacity expansion and cost optimization on the supply side, domestic policy support, and differentiated competitive advantages brought by technological advancements.
A new development in the supply landscape for the year is the entry of EDO as a new supplier in the flexible OLED market in 2025. Meanwhile, rigid OLED shipments are anticipated to decline to approximately 200 million units, down 7.7% year-on-year, as they continue to be replaced by flexible OLED products, leading to a shrinking market share.
Regionally, South Korean manufacturers maintain a stronghold in the high-end segment, while Chinese companies are expanding production and optimizing costs to capture flexible OLED market share. South Korean firms, being core suppliers to Apple and Samsung Electronics, are expected to hold roughly 50.7% of the total global OLED market share in 2025, continuing their dominance in the premium segment. Their share in the flexible OLED market is projected to be around 42.1%, remaining largely stable compared to the previous year. This position is underpinned by the technological barriers they have established in high-end panels, making them difficult to replace in the short term. In 2026, Samsung Display is set to commence mass production of foldable panels for Apple, which will significantly boost the shipment volume and value of foldable panels from South Korean manufacturers.
Chinese panel makers are expected to capture 49.3% of the global OLED panel shipment share in 2025, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year. In recent years, Chinese manufacturers have achieved comprehensive breakthroughs in the end-market by leveraging flexible OLED capacity expansion, technological catch-up, and cost advantages, steadily increasing their global market share. The center of gravity in the global flexible OLED supply chain is shifting towards China, with Chinese firms projected to hold a 57.9% share of the global flexible OLED market in 2025.
In terms of competitive landscape, Samsung Display leads firmly in first place, while Tianma is accelerating its rise through strong customer structure and capacity utilization. Samsung Display is forecast to ship approximately 380 million OLED panels globally in 2025, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, maintaining its dominant number one position worldwide. Its rigid OLED shipments are expected to decline by 6.6% to about 160 million units, while growth is primarily driven by flexible OLEDs, with shipments projected to reach around 220 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year. Apple and Samsung Electronics are its core customers, accounting for over 90% of its flexible OLED shipments. Samsung Display maintains a technological edge in high-end flexible OLED segments, such as foldable products, and is also planning an 8.6-generation production line to expand into mid-sized application markets.
BOE is expected to ship approximately 150 million panels in 2025, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, securing a 21.1% share of the global flexible OLED market. It remains the top Chinese manufacturer and ranks second globally. Growth momentum stems from scaled penetration in the mid-range market and breakthroughs in the high-end segment. Its entry into Apple's supply chain for premium models in the second half of the year marks a significant milestone for its high-end projects. Technologically, BOE continues to enhance the maturity of its LTPO technology and improve production yields, further strengthening its competitiveness.
Tianma is projected to ship about 97 million OLED panels in 2025, a substantial increase of 19.4% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing OLED manufacturer. Its total OLED market share rises to 10.8%, elevating it to third place globally and second in China. This growth is largely attributable to stable orders from key clients and well-matched capacity release schedules. Concurrently, Tianma is continuously improving yields for advanced technologies and gradually entering the supply chains for flagship series of leading brands.
Visionox is expected to surpass 90 million OLED shipments in 2025, growing 9.4% year-on-year, with its market share reaching 10.1%, showing a slight increase. This growth is mainly due to optimized customer structure and significant achievements in cost control, leading to continuous improvement in profitability. The company is also developing ViP OLED and Micro OLED technologies to build momentum for future growth in new sectors.
CSOT's flexible OLED shipments are forecast to be around 81 million units in 2025, remaining almost flat year-on-year, with its T4 factory maintaining high and stable utilization rates throughout the year. Xiaomi remains its primary customer, accounting for over half of its OLED shipments. Currently, CSOT is focusing on inkjet printing OLED technology in its R&D efforts, with product development concentrated on mid-sized applications, gradually expanding its participation in the OLED market.
Looking ahead, the industry must balance short-term pressures with long-term strategic positioning. The deployment and investment in high-generation OLED production lines have become a core competitive arena in the global panel industry. Leading panel manufacturers are prioritizing this for capacity expansion and competitiveness enhancement, with a clear trend towards capacity buildup. In the short term, slowed global economic recovery coupled with significant increases in memory chip prices have led to weakened smartphone demand, resulting in softer demand for OLED panels. This, combined with increasing supply capacity, is intensifying price competition within the industry. Long-term, continuous technological iteration and the scaled deployment and capacity release of high-generation lines will be key variables reshaping the global OLED panel competitive landscape. The industry's competitive logic may shift from pure "capacity competition" towards "ecosystem collaboration" and "value co-creation."
Consequently, panel manufacturers need to move beyond the traditional role of hardware suppliers and deeply integrate into the product innovation chains of downstream brand customers. They should also engage in joint R&D and technological innovation with upstream and downstream supply chain partners, shifting the competitive focus from singular metrics like price and yield towards system-level performance optimization and user experience enhancement. This approach will help build more sustainable and defensible core competitive advantages.