The luxury car market landscape is rapidly shifting, with BBA (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi) showing a differentiated pattern of "BMW leading, Mercedes under pressure, Audi catching up."

BMW stands as the only BBA member achieving positive sales growth. Third-quarter delivery data shows BMW achieved global deliveries of 588,300 units, up 8.8% year-over-year, driving cumulative sales for the first three quarters to 1.796 million units, a 2.4% increase. With nearly 1.8 million units in scale, strong performance in North American and European markets offset pressure from declining Chinese market sales.

In contrast, Mercedes-Benz and Audi face greater sales pressure. Mercedes-Benz Group's third-quarter global sales reached 525,300 units, declining 12% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter. Cumulative sales for the first three quarters totaled 1.602 million units, down 9% year-over-year.

Audi's third-quarter global sales reached 397,100 units, down 2.5% year-over-year. Cumulative sales for the first three quarters totaled 1.191 million units, declining 4.8%. This means Audi's sales scale has been surpassed by BMW by more than 600,000 units.

**Losing Ground in Chinese Market, Price System Under Impact**

As global markets recover, the Chinese market has become a common challenge for BBA.

According to BMW's disclosed data, in the third quarter, BMW delivered 147,100 new cars in the Chinese market, down slightly by 0.4%. Cumulative deliveries for the first three quarters fell 11.2% to 464,000 units, making China its only declining global market.

Mercedes faces more obvious pressure. In the third quarter, Mercedes' deliveries in the Chinese market plummeted 27% year-over-year to 125,000 units. Sales for the first three quarters declined 18% to 418,000 units. China remains its largest declining global market.

While Audi hasn't directly disclosed global China sales figures, joint venture company data shows signs of recovery: FAW-Audi's first three-quarter sales reached 580,000 units, up 13.5% year-over-year; SAIC Audi's September terminal sales reached 5,700 units, up 90% year-over-year.

A luxury car dealer noted: "Rather than saying BBA is failing, it's better to say the Chinese market has more choices."

Data from the China Passenger Car Association confirms this trend: German brand market share fell from 18.4% in January 2024 to 14.3% in September; simultaneously, September luxury car retail sales reached 240,000 units, down 1% year-over-year; luxury brand retail share was 10.8%, down 0.8 percentage points year-over-year, showing traditional luxury car markets face greater structural pressure than joint venture brands.

The loosening of BBA's price system has become a core challenge. In the 200,000 to 400,000 yuan price range, BBA's entry-level models face challenges from Chinese brands.

In the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan segment, models like Zeekr and Tesla Model 3/Y, with stronger performance or higher cost-effectiveness, have caused BBA's entry-level sedans and SUVs to lose their "exclusive luxury choice" halo. In the 300,000+ yuan market, NIO, Li Auto, and AITO directly compete for BBA's core users by providing superior space, intelligent cabins, and user experience. In the 700,000+ yuan ultra-luxury market, models like NIO ET9, BYD Yangwang, and Zunjiie S800 have begun challenging BBA's top-tier vehicles.

Affected by the Chinese market, BMW announced on October 8 local time a downward revision of its full-year profit forecast. After adjustment, BMW expects 2024 full-year pre-tax profit to be "slightly below" last year's 10.97 billion euros (approximately 90.98 billion yuan), compared to previous expectations of matching last year's level. Meanwhile, full-year EBIT margin is expected to fall within the 5%-6% range, also below previously set targets.

BMW stated that higher-than-expected tariff costs and financial support provided to local dealers jointly influenced its revised performance outlook.

**Hybrid Supporting Present, Pure Electric Determining Future**

BBA's electrification paths are showing three different trajectories: BMW leading, Mercedes attacking aggressively, Audi making pragmatic adjustments, but the core consensus is "betting on pure electric to counterattack the Chinese market."

Within the German camp, BMW's pure electric transformation is more advanced. In the first three quarters, its pure electric models delivered a cumulative 323,000 units, up 10% year-over-year.

At the Munich Motor Show, BMW showcased the beginning of its new-generation pure electric strategy—the new-generation BMW iX3. This vehicle is based on a new electronic and electrical architecture, with design highly faithful to the Vision Neue Klasse X concept car. The overseas version will begin deliveries in Europe by year-end, the Chinese version will debut within the year, and domestic production will be achieved in 2026. As the first mass-production car of the new platform, the BMW iX3 features a 108kWh large cylindrical battery with CLTC range exceeding 900 kilometers.

Mercedes-Benz is launching its "largest product offensive in history," heading straight into the electric vehicle era. Its core strategic model, the all-new pure electric GLC, targets China's luxury pure electric SUV market. The long-wheelbase version will launch next year, featuring pilot assistance driving and integration with ByteDance's "Doubao" AI large model.

To supplement intelligent driving capabilities, Mercedes is building a cooperative ecosystem in China. On September 25, Mercedes announced that a new-generation intelligent driving assistance system jointly developed with domestic intelligent driving company Momenta would be released soon. On the same day, Mercedes invested 1.3 billion yuan to acquire a 3% stake in Qianli Technology, becoming its fifth-largest shareholder.

In product planning, Mercedes announced that electric versions of GLB and GLA will debut in 2026, promising to launch at least 40 new models by the end of 2027.

Audi's pure electric strategy appears more pragmatic. In June 2024, Audi CEO Gernot Döllner announced adjustments to the electrification strategy, no longer adhering to the plan to completely stop selling fuel vehicles by 2033. This doesn't mean abandoning electrification, but rather turning toward a balanced approach of "long-term electric goals with flexible product portfolio."

Audi's pure electric future is bet on two major platforms. One is the PPE luxury pure electric platform jointly developed with Porsche, whose first China-exclusive long-wheelbase model—the Audi Q6L e-tron—has officially debuted. The other is Volkswagen Group's future core—the SSP platform, which Audi views as the ultimate solution for "software-defined vehicles."

The current hybrid market remains important support.

In the third quarter, BMW Group's new energy vehicle sales increased 8% year-over-year to 152,000 units. With pure electric model sales declining slightly by 0.6% year-over-year, this growth was mainly driven by plug-in hybrid models.

Mercedes similarly relies on the hybrid market, delivering 96,000 hybrid models in the same period, up 10% year-over-year.

However, the Chinese market has passed the "range-extender boom year," with pure electric growth momentum surpassing hybrids. According to China Passenger Car Association statistics, in September, the pure electric market (wholesale) grew 32.4% year-over-year, significantly higher than plug-in hybrids and range-extenders' 8.4% and 8.7% respectively.

As BBA collectively increase investment in pure electric products, this battle determining future market structure has fully commenced in the Chinese market.