Abstract

Chefs' Warehouse will report fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market. This preview consolidates the latest quarterly performance, segment trends, and consensus expectations for revenue, margin, net profit, and adjusted EPS, alongside institutional commentary gathered since August 04, 2025.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, the consensus forecast indicates total revenue of $1.10 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.63, and EBIT of $48.87 million, with year-over-year growth of 9.43% for revenue and 23.29% for adjusted EPS. Margin expectations include a focus on sustaining gross profit margin near recent levels and improving the net profit margin; explicit gross margin and net margin forecasts are not uniformly published, but guidance implies incremental improvement versus last year. The company’s core distribution categories are expected to maintain stable volume with modest price effects, while premium specialty lines should continue to outgrow the base. The most promising segment appears to be its plate/center-of-plate category, supported by resilient demand in higher-end foodservice accounts and mix improvements.

Last Quarter Review

Chefs' Warehouse reported last quarter revenue of $1.02 billion, a gross profit margin of 24.20%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $19.15 million, a net profit margin of 1.87%, and adjusted EPS of $0.50, with year-over-year growth of 9.65% for revenue and 38.89% for adjusted EPS. A notable highlight was outperformance versus revenue consensus, with positive EPS surprise driven by disciplined operating expense control and solid throughput across distribution centers. Main business highlights included plate/center-of-plate revenue of $393.90 million, dry goods of $163.26 million, pastry and bakery products of $134.03 million, and cheese of $76.17 million, reflecting steady category momentum versus last year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Momentum

The main business, anchored by broadline and specialty distribution to restaurants and foodservice customers, is positioned to deliver mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth this quarter. Order frequency has held steady among core accounts, and volumes have been supported by stable foodservice traffic patterns across key urban markets. Pricing remains disciplined in the higher-value specialty categories, and management attention to mix should bolster margin resiliency even if commodity components track near recent ranges. Given last quarter’s gross margin of 24.20%, incremental contribution from specialty items and procurement efficiency could help gross margin hold close to that level. The quarter’s net profit margin should track slightly higher if operating leverage continues to benefit from revenue scale and if freight and labor costs remain contained relative to throughput. Adjusted EPS forecast of $0.63 implies year-over-year expansion, consistent with improved operating income expectations.

Most Promising Segment

The plate/center-of-plate category stands out as a growth engine, contributing $393.90 million last quarter, and is expected to post continued growth on a year-over-year basis this quarter. Demand from upscale and resilient restaurant cohorts supports steady volume, while product mix skewed toward premium SKUs can provide margin support. Procurement and category management initiatives, including tighter vendor alignment and assortment optimization, aim to sustain price realization even as input costs normalize. If sales mix tilts toward premium cuts and specialty proteins, the segment’s gross margin could track above the corporate average and deepen overall profitability. Visibility into this segment’s order book suggests that growth rates remain healthy, offering a meaningful buffer to any softness in more commoditized categories.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Stock performance this quarter will hinge on whether revenue meets or modestly exceeds the $1.10 billion forecast, alongside evidence of sustained margin stability. Investors will watch gross margin progression relative to last quarter’s 24.20% and any signals of net margin improvement above 1.87%. Operating expense efficiency—particularly in distribution, logistics, and labor—remains a critical swing factor for adjusted EPS delivery near $0.63. Order cadence in core urban markets and exposure to fine-dining versus casual concepts could influence volume stability, with weather and calendar seasonality shaping traffic patterns. Finally, any commentary on procurement cost trends and vendor terms will shape views on margin durability into the next fiscal period.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing tone among institutions over the past six months has been cautiously positive, with a majority emphasizing stable revenue growth prospects and incremental margin improvement, while acknowledging execution needs in logistics and cost control. Analysts highlighting the revenue estimate of $1.10 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.63 point to consistent performance across key categories and effective pricing discipline as supportive factors. Covering teams note that last quarter’s outperformance versus consensus and year-over-year EPS growth of 38.89% strengthen the case for another quarter of solid delivery. The majority view expects that center-of-plate and specialty lines continue to drive mix benefits and that EBIT of $48.87 million aligns with operating leverage trends observed recently. Institutions remain focused on whether the company can maintain gross margin near 24.20% and demonstrate a path to modest net margin expansion, framing expectations for steady results with potential for modest upside if operational efficiency trends persist.