Recently, J.P. Morgan Asset Management held its New Year investment strategy conference, providing a systematic analysis of the macro environment for global and Chinese markets in 2026, major asset allocation, and A-share investment opportunities.
Jiang Xianwei, Senior Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management China, stated that looking ahead to 2026, global economic growth may slow. However, as interest rates gradually decline, the pace of monetary policy tightening in major developed markets is expected to ease, and the low-interest-rate environment should continue to support the economy. For China, reduced external uncertainties, a supportive policy environment, coupled with a bottoming-out and recovery in the corporate earnings cycle and constraints on disorderly expansion from "anti-involution" policies, are expected to accelerate the profit recovery process for industrial enterprises.
Regarding asset allocation, Jiang Xianwei pointed out that improving corporate profits are expected to support the performance of global equity markets. However, against a backdrop of high valuations and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, investors need to reasonably lower their return expectations and diversify risks through a multi-asset approach. Specifically, the U.S. technology sector may continue to benefit from AI development, with market leadership potentially broadening to cyclical and value stocks; European equities offer structural opportunities in areas like finance and defense; Northeast Asian markets are poised to benefit from growing demand for AI hardware; and the allocation value of high-dividend Asian assets is becoming increasingly prominent. The attractiveness of the A-share market is expected to improve, with a focus on high-growth core assets, sectors related to overseas expansion, and industries with improving supply-demand dynamics. In fixed income, overseas bonds still offer coupon advantages, and short-duration government bonds in developed markets are worth attention.
On A-share investment opportunities, Li Bo, Head of the Balanced Growth Team within the China Equities team at J.P. Morgan Asset Management China, expressed the view that A-shares present more opportunities than risks in 2026, and structural market trends are likely to persist. He recommends maintaining a balanced and diversified investment approach, focusing on four key areas: First, the consumer electronics sector remains in an innovation cycle, with leading companies' valuations at relatively low levels, offering medium- to long-term allocation value. Second, the lithium battery industry chain, supported by subsidy policies for trade-ins, is expected to see continued growth in domestic electric vehicle demand. Third, the large financial sector, where fundamentals for non-bank financial institutions may remain robust if the equity market maintains a slow-bull trend. Fourth, following the policy theme of "expanding domestic demand," emerging sub-sectors warrant ongoing tracking.
Bi Xue, Director of ETFs and Indexing for China at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, shared the latest trends in the global ETF market. She noted that the wave of index investing continues to advance, with global ETF assets under management reaching nearly $19 trillion by the end of 2025. In this context, overseas ETFs are evolving from a phase of fee competition to a new stage emphasizing active management, structured strategies, and multi-asset allocation. J.P. Morgan Asset Management has accelerated its deployment of actively managed ETFs in recent years and adheres to a "boutique and differentiated" strategy in the Chinese market, committed to providing investors with more targeted, tool-oriented products. She suggested that a "barbell" ETF allocation strategy can be adopted currently to seek a balance between defense and offense.
Leveraging the deep global experience and perspective of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., J.P. Morgan Asset Management China continues to assist Chinese investors in navigating market dynamics and allocation opportunities.