At the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) annual conference held in Beijing yesterday, experts discussed China's macroeconomic trends and future development under the theme "Striving Toward the 15th Five-Year Plan." The forum projected that China's economy will maintain medium-high growth during this period, with industrial structure continuing to support high-quality development.
Liu Xiaoguang, Deputy Director of the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University and a key CMF member, presented the "China Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Report." The report analyzed China's 2025 economic outlook across three dimensions:
Macro level: Real GDP growth is expected to show a "high-then-low" trajectory, with 5.2% growth in the first three quarters. While exports exceeded expectations, persistently low prices have led to passive increases in real interest rates.
Micro level: Employment and household income remain stable but confidence needs boosting. Corporate performance has improved though capacity utilization remains insufficient, while local government fiscal conditions show signs of recovery.
Meso level: Structural transitions in industries like real estate create downward pressure, with imbalances between domestic and external demand posing risks. Key challenges include overcoming local governments' fiscal constraints, creating middle-to-high income jobs, and unlocking potential in eastern regions and major cities.
Reviewing the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the report acknowledged China's economic recovery, innovation-driven development, improved livelihoods, green transition achievements, enhanced security foundations, and expanded openness. However, it also highlighted structural imbalances, weak original innovation capabilities, tightening fiscal constraints, and complex external challenges.
For the 15th Five-Year Plan, the report outlined four key priorities: setting appropriate growth targets with matching macroeconomic governance; optimizing industrial structure through advanced productive forces; improving investment efficiency for quality development; and balancing development with security to mitigate major economic and financial risks.
The report also identified three opportunities for 2026: early-stage planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan, policy momentum, and microeconomic recovery. Six major risks were noted: export slowdown, investment deceleration, and potential spillover effects from real estate risks.
In related news, China's digital economy is projected to exceed 80 trillion yuan in annual output this year, as revealed at the 2025 World Internet of Things Conference. Global digital economy is expected to surpass $40 trillion, with over 1.2 million Chinese enterprises meeting advanced digital economy standards.
IoT and smart technologies are transforming industries including manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, and education. Global IoT connections are forecast to exceed 30 billion this year, with digital economy growing at 8% annually.
China leads in IoT infrastructure with nearly 4.8 million 5G base stations supporting IoT, potentially reaching 3.5 billion device connections. Satellite IoT networks are being developed, reinforcing China's position as an innovation leader in next-generation technologies.
"Digital economy powered by new IoT and AI technologies is reshaping our world, with China emerging as an innovation powerhouse driven by advanced productive forces," said He Xuming, Chairman of the World Internet of Things Conference.
UN Deputy Secretary-General Armandeep noted, "The digital economy is increasingly intertwined with global economic growth, serving as a vital engine for development and social welfare improvement, calling for inclusive digital innovation and forward-looking cooperation across sectors and regions."