On August 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest statistical data on commercial housing price changes. The data shows that in July 2026, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, new commercial housing prices in first-tier cities rose slightly month-on-month overall, while second and third-tier cities saw declines. Year-on-year declines across all three tiers continued to narrow overall.

In July, new home prices in first-tier cities were flat month-on-month, after rising 0.1% in the previous month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.2% respectively, while Beijing fell by 0.3%. New home prices in second-tier cities turned to a 0.1% decline month-on-month, following a flat reading in June. Third-tier cities saw a 0.3% month-on-month decline, unchanged from the previous month.

On a year-on-year basis, new home prices in first-tier cities fell 1.1% in July, narrowing their decline by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen dropped 2.3%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively, while Shanghai gained 3.0%. Second-tier cities saw year-on-year declines of 2.8%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, while third-tier cities fell 4.2%, unchanged from the prior month.

According to a simple arithmetic average calculation, the month-on-month price indices for first, second, and third-tier cities were -0.1%, -0.1%, and -0.3% respectively in July, noted Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute. The month-on-month indicators still reflect some downward pressure, meaning market demand needs further activation and destocking efforts must be pushed forward. On a more optimistic note, the year-on-year indicators, while still negative across all three tiers, are seeing consistently narrowing declines. This trend is closely tied to the overall improvement in market activity across various city tiers this year, serving as a key support for improving metrics and stabilizing the property market.

Notably, in July, 23 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities saw month-on-month gains or flat new home prices, an increase of two from the previous month. From an actual transaction perspective, some positive signals remain in the new home market, especially with recent "sell-out on launch day" phenomena in several key cities, indicating robust sales activity. Overall, the key for property markets across regions lies in enhancing product quality, ensuring solid construction, and pricing that aligns with current buyer demand. This approach will keep new home transactions active and help maintain firm prices, Yan told China Business Journal reporters.

In the resale market, July saw first-tier city existing home prices rise 0.2% month-on-month, with the gain easing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively, while Beijing remained flat. Second and third-tier cities saw month-on-month declines of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, both unchanged from June.

Year-on-year, existing home prices in first-tier cities fell 3.7% in July, narrowing the decline by 1.2 percentage points from the prior month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen dropped 4.5%, 2.0%, 4.7%, and 3.6% respectively. Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year declines of 5.1% and 5.8%, narrowing by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

Yan noted that calculations show the month-on-month price changes for existing homes in first, second, and third-tier cities were 0.2%, -0.3%, and -0.4% respectively in July, with year-on-year changes of -3.7%, -5.1%, and -5.8%. The data reveals two major positive signals. First, first-tier cities are stabilizing first, with month-on-month gains for five consecutive months, playing the role of a recovery leader and reflecting that market adjustments are largely complete. According to intermediary feedback, some quality listings have seen price increases of around 5% (roughly 200,000 yuan per unit), with listing activity improving notably. This benefits from the loosening of purchase restrictions and improving expectations, with recent Beijing policy measures set to provide further support. Second, year-on-year declines are narrowing across the board. After prolonged deep adjustments, all three tiers of cities have entered a new phase, with stabilization expectations continuing to strengthen.

It is worth noting that among the 70 cities, 8 saw month-on-month gains or flat existing home prices, a decrease of two from the previous month. Yan believes that from an actual transaction standpoint, a prominent issue in the resale market is the notable reduction in quality listings, while remaining properties often face buyer bargaining pressure to close deals. Of course, some newer homes with shorter property ages, good school districts, or prime commercial locations can still maintain firm prices. However, the core logic reflected in the data remains clear: resale markets across various cities are still in a phase of "trading volume for price," requiring price adjustments to attract buyers.

On August 17, the National Bureau of Statistics also released national real estate development investment and sales data for the January-July 2026 period. The data shows that development investment totaled 4,300.9 billion yuan from January to July, down 19.2% year-on-year. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is necessary to introduce supportive policies for stabilizing investment, particularly in land transactions and related areas, while addressing risk prevention and resolution requirements, Yan said.

Several important changes deserve attention. First, reduced supply is a proactive measure taken this year, with land supply indeed decreasing. This objectively impacts development investment but represents deliberate regulation. Second, much of the current work revolves around existing projects, with regions making significant progress in revitalizing stock properties and producing numerous successful cases, which to some extent reflects the effectiveness of investment stabilization efforts.

The data also shows that from January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 450.21 million square meters, down 11.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area falling 12.7%. New commercial housing sales value reached 4,271.8 billion yuan, down 13.1%, with residential sales value declining 13.2%.

The sales side currently faces some pressure. For example, while resale transactions in some cities are performing reasonably well, the conversion rate in the new home market remains unsatisfactory. It is recommended that regions systematically review properties with strong sales performance. These projects typically share common characteristics, such as product positioning between rigid demand and upgrade demand, broader audience appeal, and price points that are more affordable and acceptable to buyers, resulting in generally better new home sales. Additionally, some regions have provided more support for trade-in programs, including purchase subsidies and higher provident fund loan limits, which have also provided positive support to the market, Yan said.

Yan believes that while stabilizing the property market has largely been achieved on the surface, further efforts are needed to achieve better development and a true "bull run" momentum. The precision of policy implementation must be improved, along with a stronger grasp of the market's operating patterns. How are property prices in your area? Any changes recently? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section below!