Elon Musk's SpaceX is reportedly planning to go public as early as mid-to-late 2026, bringing the spotlight back to the IPO market for mega-private companies valued at $2.9 trillion. This move could catalyze a wave of "super unicorn" listings, potentially reshaping the U.S. capital markets landscape.

SpaceX is targeting a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, with a fundraising goal exceeding $300 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history. A 5% stake sale could raise around $400 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $290 billion record in 2019.

This IPO will test market appetite for high-valuation, profitability-unproven mega-corporations. SpaceX and Stripe—so-called "hectocorns" (private startups valued over $100 billion)—have long avoided public markets, with their private valuations already eclipsing most listed firms.

Bankers widely believe a successful SpaceX listing could end the era of giant firms lingering in private markets. Since global IPO fundraising peaked in 2021, public offerings have stagnated. Such companies previously relied on private funding at valuations far exceeding public peers while avoiding quarterly disclosures and market scrutiny.

Steve Studnicky, Co-Head of Americas Equity Capital Markets at UBS, noted: "Many assumed these hyper-valued private companies had no reason—or might never need—to go public. Now they're signaling viable paths to listing, which could help set a trend others follow."

Market Capacity Test A SpaceX listing would challenge market infrastructure and investor capacity. A 5% stake sale at $1.5 trillion valuation would raise ~$750 billion—eclipsing the annual U.S. IPO totals in 8 of the past 13 years (excluding SPACs and closed-end funds), per Bloomberg data.

Paul Abrahimzadeh, Partner at 1789 Capital and former Citi Co-Head of North America ECM, observed: "S&P 500 median market cap is ~$40 billion—this is another league entirely. SpaceX would attract massive institutional and retail interest as a must-own stock."

Valuation concerns persist, however. David Erickson, Columbia Business School adjunct professor and ex-Barclays global ECM co-head, cautioned: "The issue isn't funding capacity—it's valuation rationale. Based on their revenue scales, I struggle to see how OpenAI or SpaceX justify trillion-dollar valuations to public market investors scrutinizing every digit."

Direct Listing Alternative For cash-rich mega-firms, direct listings (where shares trade without fundraising) offer an attractive route. Colin Stewart, Morgan Stanley Vice Chair of Global Tech Banking, noted: "No filings yet, but large companies must weigh this option. Their institutional shareholder bases already resemble public firms—they mainly lack retail participation."

Coinbase Global's 2021 direct listing ($85 billion debut) remains the largest example, followed by Palantir and Roblox during high-liquidity periods that mitigated execution risks.

Private Market Limits Despite current private market liquidity, Stewart warns: "People ask, 'Why go public when private funding's abundant?' But cycles turn every 5–10 years—liquidity can vanish overnight." He added that while periodic private share sales work for smaller firms, scalability becomes problematic: "At some point, piecemeal sales at higher valuations hit limits. Public markets offer pricing efficiency and sustained liquidity."

Barclays' Rob Stowe highlighted mega-IPOs' unique impact: "Missing a $5 billion IPO barely dents performance. But skipping a $500 billion or $5 trillion deal that soars? That's portfolio suicide."

Abrahimzadeh concluded: "These giants are too big to be acquired. A blockbuster IPO wave is inevitable."