CICC has released a research report stating that, considering the frictional costs associated with SY HOLDINGS' (06069) business structure transformation, it has lowered its 2026 profit forecast by 6.5% to 610 million yuan and introduced a 2027 profit forecast of 790 million yuan. The company currently trades at 14.8x/11.4x 2026e/2027e P/E. CICC maintains its Outperform industry rating and target price of HK$15 (corresponding to 21.8x/16.8x 2026e/2027e P/E), implying a 47% upside potential. The main points from CICC are as follows:
The company's 2025 performance was slightly below the institution's expectations. Revenue for 2025 decreased by 1.7% year-on-year to 900 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26% year-on-year to 480 million yuan. This slight miss was primarily due to the asset-light business transformation progressing faster than expected and a larger-than-anticipated decline in digital financial solutions revenue. Furthermore, the company emphasizes shareholder returns, having declared a 2025 dividend of 0.405 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.23 yuan per share, presenting a certain level of attractiveness in shareholder returns.
The asset-light transformation strategy continues to advance, further optimizing the revenue structure. In 2025, platform technology service revenue increased by 36.6% year-on-year to 470 million yuan, while digital financial solutions revenue decreased by 28% year-on-year to 380 million yuan. Consequently, the proportion of technology-related revenue increased by 14.7 percentage points year-on-year to 52.4%. The slight overall revenue decline was driven by the deepening asset-light strategic transformation. Specifically: 1) In terms of operational metrics, the total number of cumulative platform customers increased by approximately 27% from the end of 2024 to 23,000. The cumulative intelligent matching business scale grew by 33.6% from the end of 2024 to 332.4 billion yuan, with the matching business proportion now exceeding 87%. Overall, while revenue saw a slight decline under the asset-light transformation strategy, the income structure was further optimized. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of technology services and matching business may reflect partner institutions' recognition of the company's supply chain technology capabilities and risk control model. The institution believes that with an optimized business structure, the company is poised to enhance earnings stability and improve long-term profit quality.
Businesses such as e-commerce, international expansion, and AI are expected to open up new growth avenues. While continuing to deepen its presence in traditional stronghold sectors like infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and bulk commodities, the company has accelerated its expansion into high-growth areas such as e-commerce and international expansion in recent years. By the end of 2025, the cumulative platform service business scale in the e-commerce segment had exceeded 6 billion yuan, an increase of more than 4.4 times from the end of 2024. Regarding international expansion, the company has established an international headquarters in Singapore, with a professional team under development. By the end of 2025, it had formed strategic partnerships with nearly 10 pre-IPO robotics companies and established cooperative relationships with entities such as Changfei Optical Fiber, Zeekr Auto, and Carro. Additionally, in 2025, the company secured AI service contract revenue of 17 million yuan and recognized its first AI service revenue of approximately 2.3 million yuan. The institution believes that the company can leverage its technological and data foundation to replicate its service capabilities in areas like e-commerce and international expansion, providing new drivers for long-term growth.
Risk warnings include: platform transformation falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected expansion of new businesses, macroeconomic volatility, and pressure on asset quality.