According to a research report released by CICC, China's national cement shipment rate averaged 45.2% in August 2025, compared to 48.8% in the same period last year. Monthly cement production in August declined 6.2% year-on-year to 148 million tons, indicating continued weakness in off-season cement demand.
For the glass sector, as of September 2025, daily float glass melting capacity reached 159,000 tons per day, remaining essentially flat compared to year-end levels. The industry has yet to see large-scale cold repairs, with oversupply leading manufacturers to maintain relatively high inventory levels of 55 million cases, while social inventory also shows an accumulation trend. Additionally, August saw weakness in both steel supply and demand, with crude steel production at 77.37 million tons, down 0.7% year-on-year, and domestic apparent crude steel consumption at 68.39 million tons, declining 0.8% year-on-year.
**Cement: Demand Under Pressure, Optimistic About Marginal Industry Structure Improvement During Peak Season**
Demand continued declining in August: China's national cement shipment rate averaged 45.2% in August 2025, compared to 48.8% in the same period last year. Monthly cement production in August fell 6.2% year-on-year to 148 million tons, with off-season cement demand remaining persistently weak.
Prices relatively weak: As of September 12, average cement prices from July to September 2025 stood at 338 yuan/ton (compared to 376 yuan/ton in Q3 2024). However, current cement prices have shown modest recovery from August lows, with September national average cement prices at 338 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month-on-month. Estimated September cement enterprise gross profit per ton reached 58 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. The firm expects marginal demand improvement and price recovery driven by price increases during the peak season. Recommended focus on CONCH CEMENT (00914), Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.,Ltd. (000672), and CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313).
**Glass: Demand Side Under Continued Pressure, Industry Profitability at Low Point Awaiting Cold Repairs**
From January to August 2025, housing completion area declined 17% year-on-year to 277 million square meters. Affected by continued real estate downturn, glass demand still faces significant pressure. On the supply side, as of September 2025, float glass daily melting capacity stands at 159,000 tons per day, essentially flat compared to year-end levels. The industry has not yet seen large-scale cold repairs, with oversupply causing manufacturer inventory to remain at relatively high levels of 55 million cases, while social inventory also shows accumulation trends. Industry voluntary cold repairs may remain the primary lever for capacity adjustment. Focus recommended on industry structure improvements driven by supply contraction under profitability pressure for float glass enterprises. Suggested attention to XINYI GLASS (00868) and Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.,Ltd. (601636).
**Steel: Off-Season Supply and Demand Weakness, Awaiting Production Reduction Implementation**
August saw weakness in both steel supply and demand, with crude steel production at 77.37 million tons, down 0.7% year-on-year, and domestic apparent crude steel consumption at 68.39 million tons, declining 0.8% year-on-year. Looking ahead, production controls are expected to strengthen further in Q4, improving industry supply-demand dynamics, with the profitability cycle expected to continue recovering. Anti-involution trends continue to evolve, focusing on two main themes: 1) From a long-cycle perspective, core industry assets are currently valued at historically low levels and undervalued by the market. With profitability cycle bottoming out, valuation recovery is anticipated, with Hunan Valin Steel Co.,Ltd. (000932) as top recommendation; 2) From a short-term perspective, production controls within the year and medium-term capacity clearance will have greater marginal impact on rebar steel enterprises. Focus recommended on efficient steel enterprises with high rebar ratios.
**Risk Factors:** Continued downward demand risk, raw material price increase risk.