Bank of America Securities Reiterates "Buy" Rating on CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) with Target Price of HK$26

Stock News
Aug 21

Bank of America Securities has released a research report reiterating a "buy" rating on CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) with a target price of HK$26. The firm noted that CHINAHONGQIAO's net profit for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 12.36 billion, representing a 35% year-over-year increase, which was in line with expectations. According to Bank of America Securities' calculations, CHINAHONGQIAO's gross profit composition for H1 2025 consisted of 63% from aluminum alloy, 29% from alumina, and 9% from aluminum products. The firm's model assumes a dividend payout ratio of 65% for fiscal year 2025, implying a dividend yield of 8%. Additionally, CHINAHONGQIAO plans to repurchase no less than HK$3 billion worth of company shares. Bank of America Securities forecasts China's aluminum prices at RMB 20,500 per ton for fiscal years 2025-2026, with a long-term price of RMB 20,000 per ton. Benefiting from approximately 5% cost advantages relative to global peers, Chinese aluminum companies' profits are expected to reach RMB 3,000-4,000 per ton, significantly exceeding the historical average of RMB 1,000-2,000 per ton. Given the lower cyclicality, strong cash flow, and attractive dividend yield, Chinese aluminum companies should achieve at least a 10x price-to-earnings ratio comparable to the global average. Bank of America Securities maintains its "buy" rating on CHINAHONGQIAO based primarily on: an 8% dividend yield, the Simandou project expected to commence production by the end of 2025, and a P/E ratio of only 8x.

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