Huaxi Securities has issued a research report adjusting its revenue forecast for GUOQUAN for 2025-2027 to 78.03/91.83/108.2 billion yuan, up from previous projections of 76.46/90.83/108.20 billion yuan. The earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised to 0.16/0.20/0.25 yuan from 0.16/0.19/0.24 yuan. Based on the share price of HK$4.26 as of January 30, 2026, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 24/19/15 times, supporting the maintained "Buy" rating.

The company released a positive profit alert for 2025, projecting revenue between 77.5 and 78.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.8% to 21.3%. Net profit is expected to reach 4.43 to 4.63 billion yuan, up 83.7% to 92% compared to the previous year. Core operating profit is forecasted to grow by 44.8% to 51.2%, reaching 4.5 to 4.7 billion yuan.

GUOQUAN has aggressively expanded into township markets, which align well with its "community central kitchen" positioning due to lower rents and high growth potential. This expansion has become a major driver of revenue growth. By the end of 2025, the number of stores reached 11,566, with 1,416 new stores added during the year, including 805 in the fourth quarter. This expansion pace matches the company's strategy to penetrate lower-tier markets and provides a solid foundation for revenue growth.

Operational efficiency has improved through multiple measures. The company has enhanced store performance by expanding product categories, increasing SKUs, and introducing seasonal meal packages to raise average customer spending and repurchase rates. Membership numbers have surpassed 60 million, with enhanced user loyalty through membership programs and prepaid services. These efforts have contributed to steady growth in revenue per store.

The impressive profit growth in 2025 is attributed to economies of scale from store expansion and increased per-store revenue, leading to lower unit costs in supply chain production, procurement, and logistics. Continued optimization of operational efficiency has also driven rapid growth in profit margins and core operating profit margins.

Entering its tenth year in 2026, GUOQUAN is embarking on a new decade of growth. The company's strategy includes accelerating store openings, renovating larger stores, and expanding in township markets to strengthen performance certainty. Over the medium to long term, GUOQUAN remains committed to its community central kitchen strategy, focusing on home dining scenarios, expanding into the trillion-yuan household dining market, and exploring multi-scene, high-frequency coverage to unlock further growth potential.

Risks include slower-than-expected store expansion, challenges with new store formats, and weaker-than-anticipated consumer recovery.