Earning Preview: Amprius Technologies Operating Inc Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 175.50%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Amprius Technologies Operating Inc will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 4, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue scale, margin trajectory, and loss narrowing as consensus points to strong year-over-year growth and a modest sequential uplift.

Market Forecast

Consensus embedded in current projections indicates Amprius Technologies Operating Inc is expected to deliver fourth-quarter revenue of 22.97 million, up 175.50% year over year, with adjusted EPS of -0.04, reflecting a 63.60% year-over-year improvement; EBIT is forecast at -5.20 million, a 56.68% year-over-year improvement. Sequentially, the revenue outlook implies approximately 7.19% growth versus the previous quarter’s actual 21.43 million, while margin forecasts are not explicitly provided by market models.

The main business is expected to remain centered on customer shipments of advanced cells, with the outlook focused on sustaining volume growth while managing cost absorption and operating expenses to support a gradual path toward margin expansion. The most promising component remains the customer revenue stream, which contributed 21.03 million in the prior quarter and aligned with the company’s overall 172.77% year-over-year revenue increase, underscoring its leverage to shipment scaling.

Last Quarter Review

Amprius Technologies Operating Inc posted last quarter revenue of 21.43 million, a 172.77% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 15.49%, GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of -3.89 million, a net profit margin of -18.16%, and adjusted EPS of -0.03, a 70.00% year-over-year improvement. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, net profit improved by 38.90%, highlighting sequential loss narrowing as production scale improved and operating leverage began to build.

The quarter’s financial execution also included a better-than-expected revenue outcome versus prior estimates, accompanied by an EBIT of -4.69 million and a meaningful year-over-year improvement of 58.30% on that line. Main business revenue was concentrated in customer shipments at 21.03 million (98.13% of total), complemented by other revenue, primarily government grants, at 0.40 million (1.87% of total), with overall revenue up 172.77% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: sustaining shipment scale with close attention to cost absorption and operating discipline

Projected fourth-quarter revenue of 22.97 million implies continued growth in the core shipment-driven business, building on the prior quarter’s 21.43 million. The company’s revenue base is highly concentrated in customer shipments, which represented 98.13% of last quarter’s total, so near-term performance will hinge on timely deliveries and stable average selling prices. Management’s cost absorption in the prior quarter yielded a gross margin of 15.49%, and while a margin forecast is not explicitly provided, the path to stronger margins will likely come from a mix of higher utilization, learning-curve efficiencies, and procurement optimization.

Given the expected adjusted EPS of -0.04 and EBIT of -5.20 million, year-over-year improvements are anticipated even as the sequential adjusted EPS points to a slightly wider loss versus -0.03. This suggests operating expenses or manufacturing overhead may be elevated to support ongoing scale-up, a common pattern when expanding production capacity and preparing for larger volumes. With net profit already improving 38.90% quarter on quarter in the prior period, a constructive setup exists if the company can sustain revenue momentum while moderating the growth rate of operating expenses, which would convert a portion of the top-line gains into margin progress.

Most promising business: customer shipments as the primary lever for growth and earnings inflection

The company’s largest and most promising revenue stream is customer shipments, which totaled 21.03 million last quarter; this line is aligned with the overall 172.77% year-over-year revenue growth achieved during the period. The fourth-quarter revenue forecast of 22.97 million underscores that the same lever—steady demand conversion from customers—remains the principal driver of growth and the key to improving operating metrics. Execution on deliveries, yield, and product mix will determine whether sequential revenue growth can pair with improved cash-cost per unit, laying groundwork for better profitability.

From a financial sensitivity standpoint, every additional million of quarterly revenue that flows with the existing gross margin structure has an outsized impact on loss narrowing, given the relatively fixed nature of some operating costs. If ASPs hold and manufacturing variances continue to normalize, customer shipments can facilitate improved cost absorption and deliver incremental gross margin gains. Conversely, if the mix skews toward lower-margin products or if ramp costs are higher than anticipated in the quarter, adjusted EPS could remain under pressure even with solid top-line growth.

Stock-price drivers this quarter: pace of revenue scale, loss trajectory, and visibility on operating leverage

Investors will likely focus on the balance between rapid top-line expansion and the company’s route to profitability. With revenue expected to grow 175.50% year over year and approximately 7.19% sequentially, the central question is whether operating leverage strengthens enough to offset a temporarily higher cost base, as suggested by the adjusted EPS estimate of -0.04. A clear articulation of utilization trends, unit economics, and expense control would help frame how quickly gross margin can progress from the most recent 15.49% level.

Given last quarter’s -18.16% net margin and an EBIT that improved year over year by 58.30%, investors will weigh the durability of that improvement against the sequential headwinds embedded in this quarter’s EPS outlook. Disclosures around order timing, delivery phasing, and any working-capital impacts could also sway sentiment, particularly if guidance implies steady conversion of backlog into revenue without accumulating inefficiencies. In such an environment, even incremental beats on revenue or cost lines can shift the narrative on loss narrowing and bring forward expectations for breakeven on an adjusted basis.

Analyst Opinions

The collected views in the current window indicate a majority bullish stance: bullish 100%, bearish 0%. Northland Securities’ Ted Jackson reiterated a Buy rating on Amprius Technologies Operating Inc in mid-January 2026 with a 20.00 price target, signaling confidence that the company’s growth trajectory and execution can sustain value creation as volumes scale. The emphasis from this viewpoint aligns with consensus projections calling for a 175.50% year-over-year revenue increase this quarter and year-over-year improvements in EBIT and adjusted EPS.

From an analytical standpoint, the bullish case rests on the interplay among rapid revenue expansion, improving year-over-year loss metrics, and the potential for operating leverage. If the company meets or exceeds the projected 22.97 million in quarterly revenue while protecting unit economics, investors could reward evidence that last quarter’s gross margin of 15.49% can be sustained or modestly improved. The persistence of customer-driven revenue concentration provides visibility on the primary growth engine, and favorable updates on cost normalization or yield progress would likely support the thesis embedded in the Buy rating.

Bullish sentiment also reflects the asymmetric impact small operational wins can have at this stage of scale. With adjusted EPS expected at -0.04, even marginal outperformance—through better-than-modeled gross margin or tighter operating expense control—would demonstrate accelerating operating leverage. Accordingly, the market may give outsized credit to signs that sequential revenue growth of about 7.19% can occur in tandem with stability in costs, setting up a cleaner glide path to future quarters. In this context, the Buy rating and target price point to a belief that the business is transitioning from proof of growth to proof of leverage, with the quarter’s print and guidance serving as a critical validation step.