According to a research report from Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., the global new ship price index for January was 184.29 points, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.69% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. A structural divergence in ship prices was observed, with new ship prices trending weakly and second-hand ship prices continuing to strengthen. China's ship export scale continued to expand in 2025, with the export proportion remaining high. Since the beginning of 2026, deliveries and new orders for multiple vessel types have progressed steadily, and the application of green power technologies, such as domestically produced methanol dual-fuel power technology, continues to be implemented.
The main views of Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows:
In January, a structural divergence in ship prices was evident, with new ship prices fluctuating on the weaker side while second-hand ship prices continued their upward trend. The global new ship price index for January stood at 184.29 points, down 2.69% year-on-year and 0.19% month-on-month. Within this, newbuild prices for tankers and bulk carriers saw slight month-on-month increases of 0.44% and 0.63% respectively, while container ship prices fell by 0.38% month-on-month, and gas carrier prices rose by 1.19%. The second-hand ship price index reached 195.96 points, up 12.53% year-on-year and 2.56% month-on-month. Prices for 5-year-old and 10-year-old second-hand ships increased by 2.79% and 4.25% month-on-month, respectively. On the cost side, China's comprehensive steel price index was 91.19 points, down 0.74% year-on-year and 0.20% month-on-month. From a demand perspective, the global value of new orders signed in January was $17.7847 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 38.75%. The tonnage of newly signed and delivered orders increased by 26.68% and decreased by 4.70% year-on-year, respectively. Specifically for China, the tonnage of newly signed and delivered orders surged by 134.27% and 8.95% year-on-year, respectively, corresponding to global market shares of 66.64% and 61.11%.
In 2025, China's three major shipbuilding indicators maintained high levels of operation, with the country's global market share remaining dominant and ship export scale reaching a record high. 1) Performance of the Three Major Indicators: For the full year of 2025, China's shipbuilding completions reached 53.69 million deadweight tons (dwt), an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. New orders received amounted to 107.82 million dwt, showing a slight decrease of 4.6% year-on-year. As of the end of 2025, the order book stood at 274.42 million dwt, a significant increase of 31.5% year-on-year, remaining at a historically high level. 2) International Market Share: China's share of global shipbuilding completions, new orders, and the order book accounted for 50.1%, 69.0%, and 66.8% of the world market share, respectively, solidifying its leading global position. 3) Ship Export Performance: From January to December 2025, China's ship export scale continued to expand. The proportion of export ships relative to national completions, new orders, and the order book increased to 89.3%, 88.2%, and 92.4%, respectively, indicating a persistently high export share.
Since the start of the year, deliveries and new orders for multiple vessel types have progressed steadily, and the application of green power technologies continues to advance. 1) Zhongzhou Chengxi successfully completed the repair project for the Greek vessel "Antep". The ship was completed and left the yard on January 1, 2026, with all repair tasks finished within 16 days. As a key repair project, this efficient delivery demonstrates Zhongzhou Chengxi's contract fulfillment capability and project organization skills in complex repair engineering. 2) Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd. commenced sea trials for a 49,500 dwt methanol dual-fuel chemical tanker. This vessel is the fourth in its series, marking a further step in the maturity of domestically produced methanol dual-fuel power technology in practical ship applications and enhancing the shipyard's competitiveness in the green and environmentally friendly ship segment. 3) Wuchang Shipbuilding saw the activation of new orders for 9 feeder container ships. The contract includes 5 vessels of 1,100 TEU and 4 vessels of 1,800 TEU. This will help Wuchang Shipbuilding consolidate its market share in the feeder container ship segment and support the optimization of its future order structure and improvement in capacity utilization.
Data Tracking: As of February 2, Brent crude oil futures were priced at $66.29 per barrel, down $4.41 from the previous day. WTI crude oil futures were priced at $61.89 per barrel, down $3.77 from the previous day. Shanghai crude oil futures were priced at 449.0 yuan per barrel. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stood at 2,124 points, down 24 points from the previous day, a decrease of 1.12%. The average price (including tax) for shipbuilding steel plates in major regions was: 20mm: 3,366 yuan/ton; 6mm: 4,440 yuan/ton.
Risk warnings include fluctuations in raw material prices, risks associated with trade friction, and volatility in new ship orders.