Earning Preview: EOG Resources this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 3.41%, and institutional views are predominantly bullish

Abstract

EOG Resources will release its quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market; consensus indicates modest year-over-year revenue growth alongside lower adjusted EPS, with investors watching realized prices, cost discipline, and the contribution from crude oil, natural gas, and associated marketing activities.

Market Forecast

Consensus for EOG Resources’ current quarter points to revenue of 5.78 billion, up 3.41% year over year, EBIT of 1.59 billion with a year-over-year decline of 13.71%, and adjusted EPS of 2.19, down 14.78% year over year. Margin forecasts are not provided in the dataset, implying the market expects modest top-line expansion but a softer earnings profile versus the prior year.

Crude oil and condensate remains the primary revenue engine, accounting for a 55.46% share last quarter, with near-term performance hinging on realized pricing, well productivity, and operating cost control. The most promising segment appears to be natural gas and related midstream integration, with last quarter’s natural gas revenue at 707.00 million and company-wide revenue forecast to rise 3.41% year over year in the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

EOG Resources reported revenue of 5.85 billion, a gross profit margin of 62.57%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.47 billion, a net profit margin of 25.59%, and adjusted EPS of 2.71, down 6.23% year over year.

A notable highlight was earnings quality: adjusted EPS beat estimates by $0.28 while EBIT exceeded expectations by 74.91 million, offset by a revenue miss of 133.35 million. Main business composition underscored diversified drivers: crude oil and condensate contributed 3.24 billion (55.46% of total revenue), gathering, processing and marketing brought in 1.18 billion, natural gas generated 707.00 million, and NGL contributed 604.00 million, with derivatives adding 116.00 million and small contributions from other items.

Current Quarter Outlook

Crude Oil and Condensate

Crude oil and condensate is the core earnings driver, and last quarter it accounted for 3.24 billion of revenue, or 55.46% of the total. Near term, the key swing factor will be realized pricing relative to benchmark movements and any differential changes tied to regional takeaway and quality grades. Operational execution and well-level productivity in core development areas are central to sustaining the gross profit margin that previously stood at 62.57%, given the sensitivity of margins to commodity realizations and lifting costs. Capital allocation decisions around pad development, completion designs, and downspacing affect volumes and decline profiles, which in turn influence revenue consistency and margin capture. With adjusted EPS estimated at 2.19 and EBIT at 1.59 billion for the current quarter, the crude segment’s profitability will be defined by field-level operating efficiency, drilling cadence, and any hedging outcomes that show up via commodity derivative contracts. Investors should also note the contribution of internal marketing functions, which help optimize price realizations and manage basis risk, complementing upstream results when market conditions become more volatile.

Natural Gas and Liquids Integration

Natural gas and NGL revenue last quarter totaled 707.00 million and 604.00 million, respectively, reflecting meaningful participation in the hydrocarbon stream beyond crude. The outlook for this quarter is closely tied to benchmark gas pricing, local differentials, and processing fees, as well as plant and pipeline uptime that underpins dependable flows. Expanded midstream integration, including gathering, processing, and marketing activities (1.18 billion last quarter), provides optionality and can help balance cyclicality between commodities through improved netbacks and reduced flare rates. As LNG-related export demand influences U.S. gas pricing dynamics, realizations may shift even within the quarter, and EOG Resources’ ability to route molecules efficiently through contracted infrastructure will matter for margins. Liquids pricing adds another layer, as NGL barrels often track different seasonal patterns than crude, which can help offset volatility; the company’s associated liquids stream can be a stabilizer when oil prices soften. Together, the upstream and midstream pieces create a more complete value chain that supports revenue durability and helps explain why consensus still sees a 3.41% year-over-year increase in total revenue even as EPS declines due to cost absorption and price spreads.

Key Price and Policy Drivers

Commodity prices are the central determinant of quarterly outcomes, and management commentary in recent weeks has emphasized downside risks from oversupply, including the potential for additional volumes from certain producing regions that could pressure oil benchmarks for several quarters. This backdrop shapes expectations for current-quarter earnings, where consensus anticipates higher revenue but lower earnings year over year as pricing weakens and the cost base absorbs inflationary components and service rates that have not fully retraced. In parallel, operational and regulatory factors—such as permitting visibility—remain relevant; indications of secure permit coverage over a multi-year horizon reduce uncertainty around development schedules and underscore continuity of operations. Cost initiatives and technology pilots can influence quarter-to-quarter economics: for example, improved water management and recycling at scale in the Permian could lower handling costs and aid margins, especially if such pilots achieve high recovery rates and become repeatable across multiple pads. Finally, the derivatives line (116.00 million last quarter) introduces potential variance: depending on hedge positions and settlements, the realized effect can either cushion price swings or, in some cases, dampen upside when markets rebound. These elements combine to create a near-term setup wherein pricing risks are partially offset by operational efficiencies and midstream optimization, resulting in the consensus pattern of modest revenue growth with constrained earnings power.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary skewed notably positive over the period reviewed, with the majority of published views leaning bullish versus bearish. Among the bullish cohort, Wells Fargo reaffirmed a Buy rating, citing capital discipline and high-return development, while UBS reiterated a Buy with a constructive view on the company’s inventory and returns. KeyBanc maintained a Buy rating, pointing to resilient balance sheet metrics and cash generation pace that support shareholder returns through cycles. RBC Capital’s coverage maintained a Buy stance, emphasizing the strength of the company’s core plays and the expected efficiency of its development program. Susquehanna set a Positive rating, highlighting durable free cash flow potential and robust liquids exposure. Raymond James raised its price target to $157 and maintained a Strong Buy rating, reinforcing confidence in execution and asset quality under current commodity price conditions.

Neutral stances formed a secondary cluster—Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Roth MKM, Barclays, Stephens, Piper Sandler, and JPMorgan were among those reiterating Hold, Neutral, or Equalweight ratings and incremental price target adjustments—but these views did not translate into a bearish majority. Across the published items, explicit sell or underweight positions specific to EOG Resources were not the primary theme, leaving bullish ratings as the dominant signal when categorizing viewpoints into bullish versus bearish. The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions in the collected period is weighted toward bullish and effectively favors the constructive side.

From an analytical perspective, the bullish consensus rests on several pillars that directly intersect with the current quarter’s setup. First, the company’s revenue mix demonstrates stability, anchored by crude oil and complemented by natural gas and liquids, giving multiple levers to sustain top-line performance despite cross-currents in commodity pricing; this aligns with the market’s expectation of a 3.41% year-over-year increase in revenue for the quarter. Second, institutional analysis repeatedly underscores operational execution—drill-bit performance, completion quality, and midstream integration—where outcomes are visible in margin resilience and minimized downtime; these elements matter greatly when EBIT and EPS are projected to decline year over year, as they can mitigate pressure and support cash generation. Third, several positive ratings point to capital allocation discipline, which helps preserve return profiles and underpins balance sheet strength through price cycles; while this does not guarantee near-term EPS upside, it sets valuation floors by sustaining free cash flow and buyback or dividend capacity.

In practice, bullish houses expect EOG Resources to meet or modestly surpass the current quarter’s revenue estimate of 5.78 billion while accepting that EPS at an estimated 2.19 may reflect year-over-year compression due to commodity price and cost factors beyond management’s immediate control. That nuance—top-line growth with earnings headwinds—is consistent with recent energy market behavior and explains why the Street emphasizes operational controllables. Additionally, the midstream contribution observed last quarter (1.18 billion from gathering, processing, and marketing) is seen as a quiet strength that can soften volatility compared to pure upstream peers. Taken together, the majority view frames the current quarter as an execution test in a tougher price environment, but one where the company’s integrated approach and asset base are expected to produce stable revenue, maintain healthy margins relative to peers, and preserve optionality for shareholder returns as prices normalize.

On balance, the prevailing institutional perspective is constructive: revenue should grow modestly year over year, EPS may be lower, and valuation support comes from disciplined operations, integrated marketing, and consistent cash generation, all of which set a favorable backdrop for the remainder of the year once commodity prices stabilize. Under this lens, the immediate quarter is unlikely to redefine the longer-term trajectory, but it can validate the durability of the business model in managing price softness while sustaining the operational and financial pillars that analysts cite as reasons for their bullish ratings.