OPEC+ producers will gather again this weekend to tackle the thorny task of clarifying how much crude each member can realistically produce. In May, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) initiated a new assessment of members' "maximum sustainable capacity" to inform production quota setting for 2027. With output levels already set for coming months, delegates say this longer-term evaluation will likely dominate discussions at Sunday's meeting.

The need for capacity assessment has grown more urgent as several members struggle to meet agreed production increases this year—a sign some nations may be hitting their output ceilings. Establishing true capacity would help align quotas with reality and lend credibility to potential future cuts. This evaluation could face significant challenges by 2026.

Global oil markets show increasing signs of oversupply, with prices recently falling to around $60 per barrel in London. JPMorgan warned Monday that OPEC+ may need fresh output cuts next year to prevent prices sliding into the $40 range. However, capacity assessments risk internal friction, as some members seek higher valuations while others resist acknowledging production shortfalls. Last year, such disagreements led Angola to quit OPEC.

While Saudi Arabia maintains substantial spare capacity, other members face more complex situations. The UAE and Iraq actively pursue capacity expansion, while Russia remains constrained by Western sanctions. For its evaluation, OPEC+ will consult energy analysts including Wood Mackenzie and S&P Global's IHS. Technical preparations began at September's meeting.

Delegates note it remains unclear what exactly will be discussed during Sunday's virtual meetings, which will review market conditions and allow key members to examine early 2026 production policies. However, significant policy changes appear unlikely. Notably, eight members recently agreed to pause further output increases in Q1 2025 after unexpectedly boosting supply earlier this year, now seeking to avoid exacerbating market pressures amid clear glut signals.

RBC Capital Markets suggests OPEC+ will likely maintain current policies until geopolitical uncertainties clarify. Global supplies face pressure from U.S. sanctions on Russia and tougher international stances toward Venezuela. "We still believe OPEC will adopt a wait-and-see approach until the picture becomes clearer," said Helima Croft, RBC's head of commodity strategy.