Spot Gold: On February 10th, market developments: During the Asian and European trading sessions on Tuesday, the price of gold experienced a pullback from around $5035, halting its two-day consecutive upward trend. As market risk sentiment gradually recovered, some capital began flowing out of safe-haven assets, placing short-term pressure on gold. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing. Iran stated that the latest round of communications with the United States regarding the nuclear issue had made some progress, alleviating market concerns about further escalation. Consequently, some of the premium gold had accumulated due to safe-havor demand was digested by the market. However, from a medium-term perspective, the downside for gold prices remains limited. Data shows that a major Asian central bank increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month in January, raising its holdings to 74.19 million ounces. The central bank's persistent accumulation of gold demonstrates long-term precautionary awareness against global economic and financial uncertainties, providing solid fundamental support for gold prices.
Technical Perspective: From a technical structure viewpoint, the recent rapid rise followed by a pullback in gold appears more like a corrective phase within an uptrend. On the daily chart, the price remains within a medium-term ascending channel and above key moving averages, indicating the overall trend structure is intact. In terms of pattern, the recent pullback has not broken the sequence of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting bulls still dominate the medium-term trend. Momentum indicators have retreated from high levels, indicating a cooling of short-term buying pressure but not yet entering weak territory; the current adjustment seems more like a digestion of prior gains. Key levels include $4990, which holds both psychological and technical significance as support. A sustained hold above this level would reinforce confidence in the upward trend. A deeper pullback could find support around $4967 (a previous breakout area combined with short-term moving average support), while $4940 represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel and is a crucial medium-term defensive level. On the upside, initial resistance is encountered near $5067 (a recent consolidation high). A decisive break and hold above this level could pave the way for a retest of the recent high around $5085. A breakthrough here might open further upside potential, with the medium-term bullish target situated near $5130. Overall, as long as gold does not decisively break below $5000 and disrupt the ascending channel, the technical posture leans towards a strong consolidation within a high range. The current decline is attributed more to recovering risk sentiment and short-term capital adjustments rather than a fundamental reversal. Key levels to watch in the near term are resistance between $5085-$5130 and support between $4990-$4940.
Evening Gold Trading Strategy: Short Positions: Aggressive entry near $5068 ±5, stop loss $85; Conservative entry near $5125 ±5, stop loss $40; Target profit $50/$100. Long Positions: Aggressive entry near $4996 ±5, stop loss $78; Conservative entry near $4940 ±5, stop loss $20; Target profit $50/$100. [Personal suggestion: Prefer buying on dips. GOLD pivotal level: $4900/oz! The above views are for reference only; diversify positions reasonably and strictly control risks!]
WTI Crude Oil: Market Developments: During the Asian session on Tuesday (February 10th), WTI crude oil was trading around $64.3 per barrel. In terms of news, both the US and Iran expressed willingness to continue negotiations, leading to a temporary easing of Middle East tensions and a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium. However, underlying risks in the region persist. Additionally, the recent weaker performance of the US dollar has attracted noticeable buying interest at lower levels, supporting a generally firm and oscillating pattern for international crude oil prices. WTI prices might also face pressure from rising global supply. According to Reuters, Venezuela's crude oil exports surged to 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, up from 498,000 bpd in December, potentially adding headwinds from the supply side. Meanwhile, markets are closely monitoring developments regarding India's imports of Russian oil. Reports suggest recent US-India trade talks are related to the freezing of Russian crude oil purchases. As one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, any disruption to India's imports could significantly underpin global oil prices.
Technical Perspective: Crude oil prices declined in the previous session, taking profits after recent gains and allowing for a breather to gather new momentum, which could support chances for a recovery and a return to the upward trajectory. Simultaneously, the price is moving away from overbought conditions on the Relative Strength Index, especially where negative divergence signals appeared. However, the overall picture remains bullish, with prices continuing to trade above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which acts as significant dynamic support and reinforces the primary short-term bullish trend. Price action is occurring along the supporting trendline of this path. Therefore, a bullish move is anticipated in the upcoming intraday sessions, particularly if the price stabilizes above $63.50, targeting the key resistance level at $66.00. For today, oil prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range. Close attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation. Key levels to watch are resistance between $65.5-$66.1 and support near $63.5/$62.8.
Evening Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Short Positions: Aggressive entry near $65.5 ±0.2, Conservative entry near $66.1 ±0.2, Stop loss: approximately $0.6 each, Target: near $63.0! Long Positions: Aggressive entry near $63.5 ±0.2, Conservative entry near $62.8 ±0.2, Stop loss: approximately $0.6 each, Target: near $66.0!