Abstract

Moderna, Inc. will report Q4 fiscal results on February 13, 2026, Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to declining revenue and losses, while investors focus on product sales mix, margin stabilization, and the pace of pipeline execution.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus and company-compiled forecasts indicate total revenue of USD 0.63 billion, adjusted EPS of USD -2.64, and EBIT of USD -1.08 billion, with year-over-year revenue expected to decline by 33.60% and EPS down by 1.58%, alongside ongoing margin pressure. The core commercial business is anticipated to be driven predominantly by product sales tied to respiratory vaccines, while collaboration revenue remains modest; the most promising segment centers on products projected at USD 0.63 billion with revenue down 33.60% year over year amid a smaller COVID-19 market.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Moderna, Inc. posted revenue of USD 1.02 billion, a gross profit margin of 0.79%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent company of USD 0.20 billion, a net profit margin of -19.68%, and adjusted EPS of USD -0.51, with steep year-over-year declines in the top line. The quarter’s financial highlight was clear discipline on operating expenses leading to a narrower-than-feared EBIT loss of USD 0.26 billion versus street expectations. Main business highlights featured product revenue of USD 0.97 billion and collaboration plus licensing of USD 0.04 billion, reflecting continued normalization of COVID-19 vaccine demand and limited contribution from partnerships.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Commercial Vaccines

Moderna, Inc.’s main commercial backbone remains its respiratory vaccine franchise, led by COVID-19 products and supported by an emerging seasonal market environment. Heading into the quarter, expected revenue pressure stems from a smaller market size, dose rationalization, and retailer inventory discipline, with the company forecasting USD 0.63 billion in total revenue and an EPS loss of USD -2.64. Pricing dynamics in the United States, distribution channel ordering behavior, and international procurement cadence will shape realized sales. Gross margin performance is the immediate swing factor: with last quarter’s gross margin at 0.79%, any improvement hinges on manufacturing absorption, batch yields, and mix relative to collaboration revenue; stabilization even to mid-teens would signal improved fixed-cost utilization, while persistence near breakeven would confirm constrained operating leverage. The quarter’s net margin is likely to remain negative given the EBIT estimate of USD -1.08 billion, reflecting elevated R&D and SG&A tied to pipeline scale-up.

Most Promising Growth Opportunity

The largest near-term growth potential lies in the broader respiratory vaccine franchise and adjacent adult immunization indications leveraging mRNA platform agility. While COVID-19 volume has structurally normalized, incremental adoption can come from targeted high-risk cohorts, employer or pharmacy programs, and geographic broadening amid variant visibility. The revenue base, forecast at USD 0.63 billion this quarter with a 33.60% year-over-year decline, creates a low comparison bar for downstream quarters if procurement windows reopen or private market uptake re-accelerates. Evidence of execution may include improved fill-finish throughput, expanded retail distribution, and better alignment of supply with demand to mitigate write-down risks. That operational progress, combined with rationalized production, would support margin rebuilding and provide a clearer bridge to future launches.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s performance this quarter will likely pivot on four intertwined factors: realized COVID-19 revenue versus the USD 0.63 billion forecast, gross margin trajectory relative to last quarter’s 0.79%, operating expense control given an EBIT estimate of USD -1.08 billion, and pipeline catalysts. On the commercial side, investor attention will be on whether U.S. retail channels placed adequate orders to cover late-season demand and how international contracts shaped recognized revenue. Margin outcomes will communicate whether manufacturing overhead absorption is improving, a key determinant for long-term profitability. Pipeline updates, including trial progress in new vaccine indications or therapeutic candidates, would affect sentiment by framing revenue diversification beyond COVID-19 and supporting a path to sustained growth.

Analyst Opinions

The majority view in recent institutional commentary trends cautious-to-negative, highlighting downside risk to near-term revenue and persistent losses given the company’s own guidance cadence. Analysts point to a shrinking COVID-19 market, thin collaboration revenues, and the need for tangible margin improvement to shift the earnings profile. Several note that the EPS forecast of USD -2.64 and EBIT loss of USD -1.08 billion leave limited room for beats unless product sell-through materially exceeds expectations or operating spending is trimmed faster than modeled. Institutions underscore that investor patience hinges on credible milestones in late-stage programs and the timing of broader adult vaccine uptake. The prevailing stance expects choppy quarters ahead, with potential upside later if the company’s vaccine pipeline transitions to commercial scale and manufacturing economics normalize.