Abstract

Ferrovial SE will report its quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS, contrasts them against the prior quarter’s actuals, and highlights segment dynamics likely to drive the print and guide near-term stock reaction.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 2.54 billion USD, 4.50% higher year over year, EBIT of 346.50 million USD with a 24.47% YoY increase expected, and adjusted EPS of 0.26 with 11.21% YoY growth; the company’s margin mix is expected to improve modestly alongside steady revenue expansion. The main business highlight is resilient construction activity supported by transportation concessions, with improving project discipline and airport and highways volume recovery; the most promising segment appears to be Construction at 3.45 billion USD last quarter revenue, supported by stable backlog and disciplined bidding, though reported YoY growth data was not provided.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Ferrovial SE delivered revenue of 2.44 billion USD, a gross profit margin of 88.30%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 270.00 million USD, a net profit margin of 12.08%, and adjusted EPS of 0.36, with year-over-year growth of 26.42% for revenue and no YoY figure disclosed for EPS in the tool. A key operational highlight was solid execution relative to expectations, as adjusted EPS exceeded consensus by 0.04 and EBIT came in at 260.00 million USD; by business line, Construction contributed 3.45 billion USD in revenue, Highways 676.00 million USD, and Airports 37.00 million USD, while Energy Infrastructure and Transport added 142.00 million USD and Other 295.00 million USD; YoY by segment was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Construction

Construction is the core revenue engine and the most immediately visible driver for quarterly volatility. With last quarter revenue of 3.45 billion USD in this segment and a strong contracted backlog, the near‑term performance is expected to hinge on project mix and cost pass‑through. Consensus revenue growth of 4.50% this quarter, together with expected EPS growth of 11.21% and EBIT growth of 24.47%, implies operating leverage improving as legacy lower‑margin projects roll off and newer bids reflect higher input costs. The key factor to monitor is margin discipline on complex projects in North America and Europe; a favorable mix and continued cost control would likely support gross margin stability from last quarter’s reported level, while any slippage on materials or labor could compress segment profitability. Management’s focus on risk sharing and milestone phasing suggests potential for steady cash conversion, which would support earnings quality even if top‑line growth remains moderate.

Most promising business: Transportation concessions (Highways and Airports)

Highways and Airports together provide relatively higher‑quality, volume‑sensitive cash flows that can amplify margin performance when traffic trends are supportive. Last quarter, Highways generated 676.00 million USD and Airports 37.00 million USD; while YoY growth by line is not available, the upcoming quarter’s EBIT forecast implies better operating efficiency, consistent with normalized traffic and CPI‑linked tariff frameworks in certain concessions. For this quarter, the concessions portfolio can be a swing factor for EBIT and EPS if traffic growth holds and inflation‑indexation flows through, as suggested by the 24.47% YoY EBIT growth forecast. Risks revolve around seasonal traffic, one‑off maintenance timing, and FX effects on concessions with non‑USD cash flows, but the structure of these assets typically anchors margin, which aligns with the guidance‑implied improvement in earnings mix.

Factors likely to influence the stock price this quarter

The first determinant is whether reported revenue aligns with the 2.54 billion USD estimate and whether EBIT tracks the 346.50 million USD forecast; a clean beat on EBIT would validate the margin‑improvement narrative embedded in consensus. The second is adjusted EPS delivery versus the 0.26 estimate and any commentary on backlog quality and win rates in target geographies, which investors will use to extrapolate margin sustainability. The third is segment disclosures for concessions, especially traffic metrics and any updates on tariff indexation, as these feed through to cash yield and valuation. If management provides clarity on cost pass‑through mechanics within Construction and confirms stable execution on complex projects, the market could reward visibility in margins even in the face of modest top‑line growth. Conversely, any sign of cost creep or delays on large projects could outweigh stable revenue and pressure the shares near term.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing tone among published previews and commentary in the recent period is constructive, with the majority expecting steady top‑line growth and sequentially better operating leverage to support EBIT and EPS delivery. Analysts leaning bullish point to a normalized operating environment for concessions and improved cost discipline in Construction as reasons the company can meet or slightly exceed the 0.26 EPS and 346.50 million USD EBIT estimates. Commentary also emphasizes that revenue guidance aligned around 2.54 billion USD embeds reasonable assumptions for project timing, and that backlog conversion remains the key underpin for the year‑over‑year improvement in profitability. The consensus view highlights traffic normalization in highways and stable inflation‑linked pricing as tailwinds for mix, which could offset localized softness in low‑margin building work. Against this backdrop, the majority stance favors a modest beat‑and‑raise setup on margins, while acknowledging that delivery hinges on execution consistency and absence of unexpected project‑specific charges.