From October 13 to 17, 2025, the global carbon market showed a pattern of "strong in Europe and weak in China". The European Union Allowances (EUA) market displayed stability, with prices steadily rising and surpassing the 79 euros per ton mark, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, reflecting strong market confidence. In contrast, the national carbon allowances (CEA) market in China remained under pressure, closing lower than the opening price throughout the week, with no clear signs of stabilization. Similarly, the VCS futures market was weak, with prices declining and limited trading activity. Overall, the EU carbon market exhibited resilience, while the Chinese carbon market and VCS market are still exploring the bottom, requiring more positive factors to rebuild market confidence.

Continued Decline in the National Carbon Allowances Market During the period from October 13 to 17, the national carbon allowances (CEA) market continued its downward trend. The highest price was recorded on October 13 at 58.2 yuan/ton, while the lowest price occurred on October 17, reported at 52.16 yuan/ton, representing a fluctuation of approximately 10.4%. Additionally, each trading day's closing price was lower than the opening price, a phenomenon observed multiple times in recent weeks, indicating persistent downward pressure in the current CEA market. In terms of trading volume, sales from October 15 to 17 were relatively stable, with an average daily volume of around 3 million tons. Overall, the CEA market remained trapped in a downward pattern last week, with no clear signs of a halt in the decline.

VCS Futures Prices Under Pressure During the analysis period, the VCS futures market demonstrated a downward trend. Specifically, the price of DEC25 fell from 0.39 USD/ton on October 13 to 0.35 USD/ton on October 15, with a fluctuation of about 0.04 USD/ton. Trading activity was concentrated on October 15, with a transaction volume of approximately 5,000 tons. In general, the sentiment in the VCS futures market during this period was weak, with clear downward pressure on prices.

EU EUA Market Shows An Upward Trend Last week, the EU EUA carbon market showed an overall upward trend. After closing at 77.81 euros/ton on October 13, the price dipped to 76.62 euros/ton the next day (October 14), before entering an upward channel, reaching a weekly high of 79.21 euros/ton on October 16, then stabilizing. Trading volumes on October 14 and 16 stood out, reaching 123,000 tons and 131,000 tons, respectively. In terms of technical indicators, the MA10 (10-day moving average) saw a slight upward trend, continuing the trend of moderate increases in recent weeks. Overall, the EU carbon market has remained robust over the past few weeks, contrasting sharply with the weakening national carbon allowances (CEA) and VCS markets, demonstrating strong price resilience and market confidence.