The market frenzy surrounding space-related stocks, ignited by SpaceX's IPO plans, continued in pre-market trading on Tuesday, May 26. At the time of writing, Momentus Inc. (MNTS.US) soared 67%, Redwire (RDW.US) rose 16%, MDA Space (MDA.US) climbed 18%, Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US) gained 8%, Voyager Technologies (VOYG.US) advanced 7.6%, Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US) increased 10%, York Space Systems (YSS.US) added 7.8%, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) was up 6.5%, and Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) rose 5.6%. Major space-themed stocks surged almost simultaneously in pre-market trading, extending the sector's upward momentum since SpaceX filed its S-1 form on May 20.

The SpaceX IPO Magnet: The Logic of "Sector Resonance"

SpaceX's IPO is not just a milestone for the company itself; it acts like a powerful magnet, triggering a chain reaction of "valuation reassessment" across the entire commercial space industry. Its IPO expectations have generated a systematic "magnetic field effect" on the whole commercial space sector.

Before its anticipated Nasdaq debut on June 12, prediction market contracts are already pricing the potential first-day valuation. Data from Polymarket shows a 71% probability that the market assigns to SpaceX achieving a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion on its first day, with related contracts accumulating a trading volume of $2.14 million. Traders on the Kalshi platform are even more optimistic, with the highest probability assigned to SpaceX's valuation landing in the $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion range.

Data from Morgan Stanley's "Space 60" list indicates that approximately 24 space-related stocks have doubled year-to-date. From May 20, when SpaceX submitted its public S-1 prospectus, to the pre-market session on May 26—less than five trading days—these space stocks experienced another round of collective jumps. The core logic is classic "expectation pricing."

First, the valuation anchoring effect. If SpaceX lists on Nasdaq with a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion—equivalent to the scale of the world's current largest tech companies—it will provide the entire commercial space industry with the first truly trillion-dollar valuation benchmark. Even peers with far smaller revenue scales will see their price-to-sales (P/S) multiples recalibrated accordingly. As pointed out in a research report, SpaceX, as a "global leader in commercial space and AI," its listing plan "may boost investment enthusiasm and confidence in the aerospace industry, potentially creating resonance in both Chinese and U.S. capital markets."

Second, bets on liquidity spillover. A $75 billion IPO fundraising size—2.5 times the $29.4 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019—implies massive passive fund inflows. Once SpaceX is included in major indices like the S&P 500, hundreds of billions in ETF and index funds will be forced to allocate to space assets. Investors are positioning ahead, anticipating this liquidity spillover to raise the valuation floor for the entire sector.

Third, the "space economy" shifts from a fringe narrative to mainstream allocation. Previously, space stocks were long viewed as a high-risk, niche investment theme. SpaceX entering the public markets at a $2 trillion scale will fundamentally alter this perception—it forces all major global asset management firms to seriously evaluate their exposure to the space sector. This "rethinking of asset allocation" is happening in advance.

Sector Divergence and Risks

The logic behind this round of "following the surge" is not monolithic. Among the 11 leading gainers in space-themed stocks, the fundamental quality of the companies varies widely. Rocket Lab and Redwire have the most extensive analyst coverage, with year-to-date gains exceeding 78% each.

Rocket Lab's role in this rally is particularly noteworthy. As one of the few private companies globally, besides SpaceX, with reliable orbital launch capability, Rocket Lab's Q1 2026 earnings report, released in mid-May, showed company revenue surpassing the $200 million mark, exceeding market expectations. Since May 16, Rocket Lab's stock price achieved a significant jump within a trading week, subsequently gaining a second wave of upward momentum after SpaceX filed its S-1.

Market focus on Rocket Lab extends beyond the "SpaceX alternative" narrative. With the accelerated construction of global low Earth orbit satellite constellations—including SpaceX's Starlink, Amazon's Kuiper, and China-led satellite internet projects—demand for small and medium-lift launch vehicles is undergoing structural growth. Rocket Lab's Electron rocket and its developing Neutron rocket are positioned precisely on this demand curve.

Redwire represents the space infrastructure and foundational logic. As a supplier of space infrastructure and subsystems, Redwire's order backlog continues to climb—latest data shows a significant increase—reflecting robust demand in space manufacturing. Voyager Technologies recorded record net sales for the same quarter and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Firefly Aerospace's Q1 report also exceeded market expectations. MDA Space's gains are closely tied to growing global demand for space situational awareness and satellite services.

However, Momentus Inc., as the top gainer, also shows the most apparent fundamental fragility. Analysis warned of "thin volume" for the stock, suggesting the surge's backdrop includes excessive volatility risk due to insufficient liquidity. This stratification reveals a core asymmetry in this round of "sector resonance": SpaceX's IPO provides a plausible narrative framework for "repricing the entire industry," but beneath this framework, differences in company quality are masked by collective gains. When capital floods into the space sector attracted by SpaceX's grand narrative, both fundamentally sound companies and pure concept-chasers can receive a premium. However, this "rising tide lifts all boats" situation means that fragile targets could be the first to suffer if SpaceX's stock experiences significant volatility post-listing.

Historically, following almost every super-IPO of a similar scale, the market undergoes a brutal round of "differentiated regression." An analysis of the 50 highest-valued IPOs over the past five years shows that in about three-quarters of cases, investors would have been better off buying an S&P 500 index fund. This data highlights the difficulty of finding bargains among companies whose valuations often surge significantly even before the stock lists.

The data indicates that if an investor bought every one of those IPO stocks, the average return as of May 21 would be 27%. In contrast, the average gain for the S&P 500 index over the same historical period was 53%. This analysis assumes buyers could purchase the stocks at the IPO offering price—which is typically inaccessible to retail investors—or simply bought the broad S&P index.