Abstract

Newmont Mining is scheduled to report quarterly results on October 22, 2026 Post-Mkt; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts, last quarter’s performance, and the key drivers that could influence the print and immediate stock reaction.

Market Forecast

For the upcoming quarter, forecasts indicate total revenue of 6.31 billion US dollars, implying a 21.84% year-over-year increase; EPS is projected at 2.11, up 47.20% year over year, and EBIT is expected at 3.05 billion US dollars, up 30.90% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not explicitly provided, but investor attention remains centered on the interplay between realized metal prices and operating cost execution to drive margins and adjusted EPS trends. The main business is poised to be led by gold operations, with attention on grade mix, throughput, and unit costs across the portfolio alongside realized price capture and by-product credits. The most promising near-term contribution outside gold remains copper and other by-products, which together delivered hundreds of millions of US dollars last quarter and offer incremental leverage to price and volume in this quarter’s setup.

Last Quarter Review

Newmont Mining delivered revenue of 6.12 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 64.55%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.20 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 35.99%, and adjusted EPS of 2.10, with revenue up 15.07% year over year and adjusted EPS up 46.85% year over year. A notable financial highlight was a sequential net profit decline of 32.50% quarter over quarter, which underscores quarter-to-quarter variability tied to realized prices, cost phasing, and timing of shipments. On the business mix, gold generated 5.28 billion US dollars (about 86% of last quarter’s revenue), with silver at 344.00 million US dollars, copper at 319.00 million US dollars, zinc at 147.00 million US dollars, and lead at 32.00 million US dollars; the revenue composition shows the company’s earnings profile remains primarily driven by gold, with by-products providing meaningful revenue and cost credits against unit costs.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Gold Operations

Gold remains the central earnings engine for Newmont Mining this quarter. The forecast for total revenue at 6.31 billion US dollars and EPS at 2.11 assumes continued strength in realized gold prices relative to the year-ago period and stable production volumes across key sites. The swing factor for the quarter will be the combination of throughput, grades, recoveries, and unit costs, which together determine realized margin capture in the short term. With last quarter’s gross profit margin at 64.55% and net profit margin at 35.99%, investors will watch whether operating discipline sustains a similar margin profile even as quarter-to-quarter cost and price dynamics evolve. The majority of revenue stems from gold, so any deviation in realized prices or mine-level availability can quickly alter aggregate results; conversely, steady operations and effective price capture provide a clear route to meeting or beating the forecast envelope for revenue and EPS. From a cost perspective, sustained attention will fall on labor, energy, consumables, and maintenance cycles. The company’s ability to maintain procurement benefits, leverage by-product credits, and optimize mine plans could soften inflationary pockets within the cost base. Sequential variability is normal in this business, but the last quarter’s strong margin profile offers a recognizable baseline. If realized prices remain supportive and volumes track plan, the leverage to adjusted EPS is notable given the heavy weighting to gold in the revenue mix. Importantly, last quarter’s sequential net-profit decline of 32.50% sets up a cleaner comparison dynamic this quarter, particularly if operating cadence is smoother and price capture is intact.

By-Products and Polymetallic Contribution

Copper and other by-products represent a practical lever this quarter, both in revenue contribution and as a credit against unit costs in gold operations. Last quarter, copper revenue of 319.00 million US dollars and silver revenue of 344.00 million US dollars provided incremental diversification within the consolidated P&L. In this quarter’s forecasts, while the consolidated revenue growth of 21.84% year over year is primarily associated with gold price and volume, incremental uplift from copper and silver can support EBIT expansion, which is forecast to rise 30.90% year over year to 3.05 billion US dollars. The interplay of by-product credits with all-in sustaining costs can materially affect segment margins in the short term. Operationally, execution on throughput and recoveries in processing circuits dealing with polymetallic ore can influence realized by-product volumes, with immediate effects on the consolidated cost stack. If realized prices for copper and silver are supportive relative to the prior year, the by-product tailwind can amplify incremental margin capture without requiring a significant shift in base gold volumes. The durability of this support hinges on stable metallurgical performance and the absence of unplanned outages, as even minor disruptions can have outsized effects on smaller streams. For the quarter under review, investors will parse management’s commentary on by-product guidance ranges and realized pricing to gauge the sustainability of EBIT uplift beyond this print.

Key Stock-Price Swing Factors This Quarter

Three catalysts are likely to dominate the stock’s short-term path around the print. First, realized gold price and price-to-cost spreads: given the forecast of 6.31 billion US dollars in revenue and 2.11 in EPS, upside or downside to realized prices can quickly translate into proportional EPS deviations. Even a small variance in realized price per ounce can have a noticeable effect given the revenue scale anchored to gold. Second, the cadence of cost execution and any updates on procurement and supply chain: last quarter’s margins were robust, and the market will expect commentary on sustaining or improving unit costs relative to plan; unexpected cost pressure would be a key sensitivity for the quarter. Third, portfolio and JV developments: recent resolution of disputes related to joint ventures in Nevada has removed an overhang and could influence sentiment on capital returns and long-term optionality, even if the immediate-quarter financial effect is modest. Confirmed clarity on collaboration frameworks, project sequences, and any incremental capital allocation detail could support the stock if communicated with specificity and discipline. Beyond these factors, the market will listen closely for remarks on production cadence through year-end, guidance adherence, and flexibility in capital returns versus investment. If management reiterates confidence in the operational run-rate and signals stable cost structure into the next quarter, near-term confidence in the EPS forecast could firm. Conversely, any commentary indicating meaningful deviations in mine timing, maintenance windows, or grade sequencing could sway sentiment. Ultimately, the stock’s near-term reaction is likely to be most sensitive to realized pricing and cost control evidence, given their immediate translation into EPS versus consensus.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing analyst stance is bullish. Over the last several months, multiple well-known institutions reaffirmed positive views alongside higher price targets: Jefferies increased its target in early October; RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating with a higher target in mid-September; Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy while nudging up its target in mid-September; BMO Capital and Macquarie each reiterated Outperform views with higher targets late in September; Raymond James and Argus reiterated favorable ratings during late summer; and UBS highlighted the strategic benefit of the Nevada joint venture dispute resolution, framing support for enhanced cash returns. While at least one shop maintained a neutral stance, the ratio of bullish to neutral opinions is decisively positive, with bullish calls outnumbering neutral/bearish views by a large margin. The bullish cohort emphasizes several core points. First, the setup for this quarter’s EPS inflection is aided by a higher year-over-year realized gold price base and the company’s ongoing cost-focus, reflected in consensus EPS of 2.11, up 47.20% year over year. Second, forecasts for revenue and EBIT at 6.31 billion and 3.05 billion US dollars, respectively, embed conservative assumptions for by-product contributions; analysts argue that sustained operational cadence could produce incremental upside if costs remain in check and throughput remains consistent with plan. Third, the resolution of joint venture disputes in Nevada is framed as a clear sentiment positive, as it removes a persistent overhang, improves line-of-sight to collaborative planning, and potentially reshapes longer-term optionality under a more constructive governance framework. RBC Capital’s Josh Wolfson has underscored an Outperform view by pointing to improved visibility on cash generation over the next few quarters, supported by structurally improved operating discipline and a clearer partnership environment in key joint ventures. Goldman Sachs reinforced a Buy stance on the basis that the current forecast path for earnings leaves room for upside if realized prices and operating execution align, particularly given the sensitivity of unit margins to by-product credits and procurement discipline. Jefferies’ target increase, coming close to the current earnings date, signals confidence that near-term catalysts are skewed positively; the firm highlights just how quickly consolidated EPS can move when price-to-cost spreads widen modestly in a high-revenue, gold-centric earnings base. BMO Capital and Macquarie share a similar narrative: the firm’s revenue concentration in gold amplifies leverage to realized pricing, but margin resilience last quarter suggests the cost platform is increasingly robust. Thus, if price capture remains supportive, the step-up in EBIT to 3.05 billion US dollars year over year appears achievable under consensus. UBS has articulated that the joint venture dispute resolution in Nevada not only reduces operational uncertainty, it also supports the capacity to return capital within a disciplined framework. That perspective meshes with the thesis that clarity and stability at key assets can improve investor confidence in the sustainability of cash generation and, by extension, capital return potential over the next several quarters. The common analytical thread among this majority view is that near-term execution risks are manageable in light of recent margin performance and that consolidated forecasts are well calibrated rather than aggressive. Many note that last quarter’s sequential net profit decline of 32.50% heightened investor caution, but they frame that dynamic as a function of typical quarter-to-quarter variability rather than a deterioration in business fundamentals. Given the high weighting to gold, analysts stress that the quarter’s primary controllables—cost execution, throughput consistency, and procurement efficiencies—are being managed with discipline. As a result, they see scope for a positive surprise if realized prices remain supportive and if management communicates clear progress on the cost base and production cadence through the remainder of the year. In sum, the majority of institutions are aligned on a constructive outlook into the print: they expect Newmont Mining to post double-digit revenue growth year over year, translate price-to-cost spreads into an elevated EBIT margin, and deliver EPS consistent with or above the 2.11 consensus. They also anticipate that updates on cost initiatives, portfolio cadence, and the governance environment around key joint ventures will help stabilize sentiment, with scope for incremental target increases if the company demonstrates sustained cost discipline and steady execution. The weight of evidence in the collected research suggests a bullish majority view going into October 22, 2026, with the path of least resistance for the share price tied to realized pricing and cost-line confirmation in management’s commentary.