Abstract

Baxter International Inc. will report its fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026, Pre-Market. The preview evaluates last quarter’s performance and the current quarter’s consensus forecasts for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, and synthesizes institutional views gathered since August 05, 2025.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations for Baxter International Inc. indicate fourth-quarter revenue of USD 2.82 billion, EBIT of USD 395.95 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.54, with revenue projected to grow by 5.59% year over year and adjusted EPS to increase by 3.32% year over year. Margin signals are mixed, with EBIT trending essentially flat year over year at down 0.10%, suggesting a potential stabilization in operating performance. Baxter’s main business is expected to show steady demand across Medical Products and Therapies, Healthcare Systems Technology, and Biopharmaceutical segments, supported by recurring hospital consumables and device placements. The segment with the clearest growth runway appears to be Healthcare Systems Technology, driven by installed-base expansion and software-linked service revenue; however, precise revenue and YoY data for this quarter’s forecast are not disclosed in available consensus detail.

Last Quarter Review

Baxter International Inc. delivered third-quarter revenue of USD 2.84 billion, a last-quarter gross profit margin of 36.01%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -46.00 million, a net profit margin of -1.62%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.69, with adjusted EPS declining by 13.75% year over year. A notable highlight was resilient EBIT of USD 423.00 million versus consensus of USD 443.69 million, indicating disciplined cost control despite revenue modestly missing expectations by USD 40.28 million. Main business composition in the last quarter included Medical Products and Therapies at USD 1.33 billion, Healthcare Systems Technology at USD 773.00 million, Biopharmaceutical at USD 632.00 million, and Other at USD 101.00 million, underpinned by stable hospital purchasing patterns and a diversified product mix.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Trajectory

Medical Products and Therapies continues to anchor Baxter’s revenue base through consumables, infusion systems, and renal care products that serve daily hospital operations. Demand resilience in consumables typically supports stable top-line momentum even when capital budgets are tight, and the installed base of infusion pumps and related disposables can sustain recurring revenue. In this quarter, purchasing normalization in U.S. and European provider networks should keep volumes consistent, though pricing adjustments and product mix may influence gross margin outcomes. The segment’s contribution to operating leverage will depend on logistics efficiencies and manufacturing cost control, which were visible in the last quarter’s 36.01% gross margin and provide a baseline for assessing quarter-to-quarter margin trajectory.

Most Promising Business Vector

Healthcare Systems Technology shows the most consistent pathway to incremental growth as hospitals modernize fleets and integrate digital capabilities across therapy delivery and monitoring. The recurring nature of service contracts and software support creates visibility on revenue, while device placements expand the future consumables and service attach opportunity. In the current quarter, consensus sees total revenue growth of 5.59% year over year, and this segment’s contribution is likely supported by installed-base growth, networked devices, and incremental upgrades that enhance workflow efficiency. The profitability impact hinges on mix shift toward higher-margin service components and better cost absorption as volumes scale, which may offset any near-term price competition in capital equipment.

Primary Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Margin recovery versus last quarter’s pressure remains a key focus, with investors watching whether gross margin can hold near the mid-30% range while EBIT trends stabilize. Adjusted EPS is forecast at USD 0.54, up 3.32% year over year, and delivery relative to this mark will set the tone for sentiment; outperformance could reframe views on earnings durability, especially after the GAAP net loss of USD -46.00 million last quarter. Revenue mix across Medical Products and Therapies and Healthcare Systems Technology will be scrutinized, as the latter’s recurring elements tend to carry more favorable unit economics, potentially supporting operating leverage. Execution on supply chain normalization and disciplined SG&A will be important for maintaining EBIT consistency, given consensus implies a marginal year-over-year decline of 0.10% despite improving EPS expectations.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary collected over the recent period reflects a majority of cautiously positive views, with analysts generally expecting Baxter to meet or modestly exceed adjusted EPS and to post mid-single-digit revenue growth. The consensus leans bullish on Healthcare Systems Technology as a driver of recurring revenue and margin enhancement, while acknowledging that capital equipment cycles and pricing mix could temper gross margin expansion. Research desks also note that cost discipline and operational efficiencies have improved EBIT reliability, even with revenue variability, which aligns with the near-flat year-over-year EBIT consensus of USD 395.95 million. The prevailing interpretation is that the quarter will be defined by delivery versus the USD 0.54 adjusted EPS mark and the sustainability of mid-30% gross margin, with sentiment likely to improve if Baxter articulates a clear trajectory for margin reinforcement and confirms steady unit volume in core hospital channels.