The "Guzi Economy" craze is sweeping through younger demographics, with the card game sector welcoming another IPO contender. Recently, card company Suplay (Super Wanka), known for hit products like the Palace Museum Cultural Collection Cards, Harry Potter cards, and Mizutama blind boxes, officially submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, firing the first shot for card industry listings in 2026; subsequently, Li Jing, founder of the venture service platform Xiaofanzhuo, officially announced joining as Group Co-Founder & CFO to assist with the IPO, with the dual news sparking widespread market attention. As another card company aiming for a Hong Kong listing following Card Yu, Suplay is riding the tailwind of the "Guzi Economy" and entering the fray with strong financial performance. Can Suplay successfully break through in this listing battle? Zhu Keli, founding dean of the Guoyan New Economy Research Institute, believes that common challenges prevalent in the card industry's listing process concentrate on business model compliance, IP dependency risks, and corporate governance standards, and these issues are manifested to varying degrees in Suplay as well. Overall, Suplay and Card Yu currently remain on the same "starting line" on their IPO journeys. A shelf in a Beijing brick-and-mortar card retail store, displaying products including Suplay's Kakavo series cards. The rise of the trillion-yuan "Guzi Economy" sees Suplay betting on IP consumption. Young people are increasingly spending on self-indulgence and hobbies, with niche sectors like trendy toys and IP derivatives experiencing rapid growth fueled by booming "emotional consumption" demand. According to a CCTV Finance report, China's "Guzi Economy" market scale reached 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 40% compared to 2023, indicating a high-growth phase, with the market size projected to potentially reach 308.9 billion yuan by 2029. Against this backdrop, related IP consumption companies continue to benefit. Capital is also highly enthusiastic about the domestic IP merchandise market. In March 2025, Citibank released a research report stating that China's IP merchandise market holds immense growth potential because its per capita consumption expenditure remains relatively low compared to developed markets. The licensing business deeply connects all consumer sectors, providing broad opportunities for realizing the commercial value of IP, with IP merchandise being a primary avenue. An IPO wave is surging in the IP consumption sector. Since 2024, leading IP consumption brands like 52TOYS, TOP TOY, and Card Yu have all attempted to go public. In May 2025, 52TOYS formally submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; in September of the same year, TOP TOY, under Miniso, officially filed its listing application with the HKEX; on January 8 this year, toy company Sunny Sunday also submitted its prospectus to the HKEX. Furthermore, Jasan Animation's Guangzhou-based Jicardshe also holds a certain market share in the card sector. Beyond the Guzi Economy and trendy collectible figures, the niche card track is rapidly rising, propelled by the tailwind of IP consumption. According to Frost & Sullivan data, within the pan-entertainment merchandise market, collectible non-battle cards represent one of the fastest-growing yet least penetrated segments. In 2024, the global market size was $12 billion, projected to grow to $25.7 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.5%. The agency also notes that compared to mature international markets, there exists substantial unmet demand among Chinese adult consumers for products combining cultural depth, artistic value, and collection potential. The latest card company charging towards a Hong Kong IPO, Suplay, is betting on this very track. Public information shows that Suplay's founder and CEO is Huang Wanjun. Huang Wanjun graduated from the Central University of Finance and Economics and reportedly previously served as an analyst at China Renaissance Partners (Beijing) Co., Ltd., followed by a role as Operations Director at Beijing Modian Huixiang Technology Co., Ltd., before founding Suplay in 2019. It was noted that the newly joined CFO, Li Jing, also held several positions at China Renaissance Partners (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Regarding financing, the prospectus indicates Suplay has completed five funding rounds cumulatively. The latest round occurred in 2025, post which the valuation reached $100 million, a 20-fold increase from the $5 million valuation after the seed round. The most notable round in its funding history is the A+ round; in 2021, Suplay received an $8 million investment from renowned game company miHoYo. Notably, miHoYo also licensed core IP from its classic games like "Genshin Impact" and "Honkai: Star Rail" to Suplay for the development of its trendy toys, collectible cards, and IP derivatives. Currently, regarding the shareholding structure, pre-IPO, Huang Wanjun is the single largest shareholder of Suplay, holding 72.86%, Li Jing holds 6.61%, and miHoYo holds 11.86%, making it the largest external shareholder, with miHoYo Vice President Wu Yi serving as a non-executive director of Suplay. Self-owned IP contributes less than 10% of revenue, with over 90% reliant on externally licensed IP. The seemingly niche card business, in reality, possesses formidable revenue-generating capability. Prospectus data shows Suplay's revenue grew from 146 million yuan in 2023 to 281 million yuan in 2024, nearly doubling, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 283 million yuan, surpassing the full-year 2024 revenue within nine months. Profit growth is equally staggering. The company's net profit increased from 2.9 million yuan in 2023 to 49.1 million yuan in 2024, a surge of over 15 times. Historically, Suplay's core revenue hasn't always come from cards. The prospectus shows the company primarily has two independent product lines: Collectibles and Consumer-grade products. Collectibles mainly consist of collectible cards; Consumer products include plush toys and figures, trendy toys, retail cards, etc. In 2023, Collectibles revenue accounted for only 32.9% of total revenue, rising only to 41.8% in 2024, but this figure expanded rapidly in 2025, climbing to 70% in just the first three quarters. Prior to this, Consumer products were the main revenue source. For the card and trendy toy industry, IP is an irreplaceable core resource. According to the prospectus, Suplay's IP resources fall into two main categories: self-owned IP and licensed IP. Currently, Suplay owns three self-developed IPs: "Rabbit KIKI," "OHO Uncle," and "Mizutama." However, the contribution of these three IP products to total revenue has drastically shrunk from 40.6% in 2023 to just 4.1% in the first three quarters of 2025. Suplay's revenue is highly dependent on developing products based on third-party licensed IP. According to the prospectus, Suplay has developed products featuring well-known IPs like the Palace Museum Culture, Harry Potter, Sanrio, and Line Friends. As of September 2025, it had entered into licensing arrangements with 22 IP licensors, including exclusive licensing collaborations with Hajime Sorayama and the Chinese National Winter Sports Team. Prospectus data shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, products based on such IPs contributed a hefty 95% of revenue. In 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025, the top five licensed IPs collectively contributed 47.8%, 61.5%, and 77.7% of total revenue, respectively. It was also noted that most of the licensed IPs acquired by the company are set to expire in 2026 and 2027. Zhu Keli believes that this model of "relying on external IP" faces severe tests regarding performance stability once licenses expire or collaborations terminate. "Failure to establish effective risk hedging mechanisms could not only impact sustainable profitability but also raise regulatory concerns about business continuity." Suplay candidly acknowledges this risk factor in its prospectus. "We rely heavily on the use of third-party licensed IPs to develop our products. Failure to renew or early termination of major IP licenses, or a decline in the popularity of major IPs, could materially and adversely affect us." Concurrently, the company mentions in its prospectus that, according to its growth strategy, one of the intended uses of the funds raised from this Hong Kong IPO and a future plan is to "diversify the IP portfolio, expand cooperation areas with leading IP licensors, and continuously incubate self-owned IPs." "Chinese card companies all face this issue," industry commentator Zhang Shule pointed out, noting that when the core revenue-generating IP comes from licensing, concerns about being constrained are inevitable. Targeting Adults: Can Suplay's Differentiated Path Mitigate Risks? Compared to other card companies, Suplay has chosen a differentiated path in terms of product, sales channels, and target consumer demographics. This is first reflected in the product itself and its pricing. Suplay's cards emphasize design sensibility, artistry, and scarcity more heavily, utilizing core manufacturing techniques like laser etching, holography, and foil stamping, even incorporating embroidery, gemstones, and metal inlays on card surfaces. Regarding pricing, the prospectus mentions "focusing on the collectible grade segment with a single card issue price exceeding RMB 10," with collectible cards retailing in the range of 59.9 to 89.9 yuan per pack. Some jokingly remark that "Suplay sells cards with a luxury feel." From a sales channel perspective, Suplay primarily relies on distributors purchasing inventory, rather than selling directly to consumers. The prospectus shows that as of the end of September 2025, the company had 479 distributors, with revenue from distributors accounting for over 74% of total revenue. Commenting on this business model, an industry insider who wished to remain anonymous said, "It's easier to show results in the short term, but the long-term returns need to be seen. The key is whether the inventory held by distributors can be sold. Once distributors face inventory backlog, the situation becomes very passive." Suplay's prospectus indicates that it primarily targets adult consumers with strong purchasing power and a keen interest in cultural and entertainment content. "According to consumer research conducted by Frost & Sullivan, over 99% of the company's consumers are aged 18 or above." Song Lin (pseudonym), a staff member at a card-selling store in Beijing, mentioned that based on his observation, buyers of Kakavo (one of Suplay's own brands, a collectible card brand) are concentrated among adults in their thirties and forties. However, "adults playing with cards is a different concept from children playing with cards," explained Chen Yishan (pseudonym), who works in the IP consumption industry. Cards possess collectible and exchange value; children trade them amongst themselves, giving them a social aspect. Adults playing with cards emphasize the scarcity and liquidity of the cards more, even treating them as investment or financial products. "For example, if you buy a card today and can sell it at a higher price later, more people will enter this circle to speculate, and the market will grow larger. It's not just about the picture on the card; otherwise, you could just print your favorite picture," Chen Yishan stated. He further pointed out that for limited-edition cards to circulate multiple times and generate appreciation and premiums in the secondary market, value recognition is necessary. "This is actually very similar to the art market; liquidity is extremely important. Even if you think a card is worth 100,000 yuan, if it lacks liquidity, it's worthless." This is also why Suplay consistently emphasizes third-party grading or long-term value preservation. Its prospectus directly states: "Changes in the grading standards or operations of third-party collectible card grading companies may adversely affect the perceived value and consumer demand for our products." Chen Yishan mentioned that internationally, cards have a mature evaluation system; for instance, a card's value can be certified. He observed that Suplay is also gradually aligning its products and grading practices with international standards, such as launching Disney IP products that facilitate evaluation by foreign third-party agencies, thereby granting its products global liquidity. Although the target consumer demographics differ, in the view of Gao Dongxu, Director of the Intellectual Property Service Center at China Animation Group, the problems they face are similar. The gameplay and format of cards are relatively new in China, and behaviors like collecting and trading these products in secondary markets carry suspicions of speculation, even exhibiting some financial-like attributes, posing certain risks from a compliance perspective. Gao Dongxu pointed out that currently, the specific regulatory body overseeing the card sector is not clearly defined, leaving it in a policy gray area or vacuum. Even though the IPO is in Hong Kong, the company still needs to face future recognition from both policy regulators and the capital market. Suplay's IPO Faces Compliance Uncertainties Although companies in the card track exhibit excellent financial metrics, whether they can successfully IPO is actually subject to the interplay of multiple complex factors. Current regulation in the trendy toys industry shows a trend of continuous tightening and increasing granularity. While there are no specific regulatory documents targeting cards yet, blind boxes, which have a similar sales format, already have regulations in place. In June 2023, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Guidelines for the Regulation of Blind Box Business Activities (Trial)," stipulating that blind box operators must not sell blind boxes to minors under 8 years old; selling to minors over 8 requires confirming consent from guardians according to law; it also mandates disclosing drawing rules and probabilities for rare items to prevent addictive marketing. Simultaneously, Zhu Keli pointed out that platforms have initiated targeted governance against chaotic online card-unpacking streams, strictly prohibiting gambling-like marketing tactics such as "guaranteed rare card" or "additional spending to claim prizes" to induce consumption, with violators facing penalties like removal and account suspension. Judicial precedents have also emerged, clearly defining "gambling-style card unpacking" as illegal, providing legal support for industry regulation. Although products are mainly sold to adults, it is understood that some of Suplay's products also need to comply with the aforementioned regulations. The company's prospectus mentions that to comply with regulatory requirements, it has established consumer age restriction policies and strengthened parental oversight of minor consumption. However, in Zhu Keli's view, Suplay's primary targeting of adult consumers, while potentially reducing direct controversies related to minor protection to some extent, does not completely avoid compliance risks, let alone thoroughly escape industry-wide regulatory scrutiny. On January 9th, at a card store in Beijing, consumers were seen shopping. Kakavo cards are sold in "blind box" format, not sold individually, and the series and styles of cards inside the box are random. A salesperson mentioned, "Previously, a customer bought 4 boxes wanting athlete cards, but ended up unpacking all Sanrio cards." Zhu Keli analyzed that, from a business model perspective, Suplay's core still employs a "blind box + rarity probability" sales model, attracting repeat purchases through randomization mechanisms, which easily triggers regulatory vigilance against "gambling-like" activities. In practice, irrational repeat purchasing behavior can also exist among adult consumer groups, and the "blind box + rarity probability" model inherently possesses attributes that stimulate excessive consumption; this fundamental characteristic makes it difficult to completely avoid compliance disputes. Beyond business model controversies, such companies face other challenges. "Currently, perhaps the easiest goal to achieve is just obtaining more IP licenses. The room for expansion based on existing business lines is unlikely to excite the capital market, whereas the self-research and diversification that the capital market truly cares about are still just stories," Zhang Shule remarked. Zhu Keli indicated that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's regulatory scrutiny of trendy toy and card companies has formed a clear orientation, focusing not only on financial data but also emphasizing the social responsibility and compliance of business models. Suplay's key profit model and IP structure have not detached from the industry's inherent risks. If it fails to address compliance disputes specifically and establish a sustainable development model, its listing process will inevitably encounter obstacles, requiring substantive solutions in compliance rectification and model optimization. Who will ultimately become the "first card stock" remains unknown.