Dalio warns that the United States under Trump's leadership is returning to the 1930s era, with his increasingly strong control tendencies undermining the attractiveness of US assets and causing international investors to shift from US bonds to gold. Meanwhile, other investors remain silent out of fear.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has warned that Trump-led America is gradually falling into 1930s-style authoritarian politics. He also stated that other investors dare not speak out due to fear of the president.
The founder of Bridgewater Associates told the Financial Times that America's "wealth gap," "value differences," and collapse of trust are driving the country toward "more extreme" policies.
Dalio stated: "I think what's happening politically and socially in the US right now is similar to what happened globally from 1930-1940."
He pointed out that government intervention in the private sector—such as Trump's decision to hold a 10% stake in chip manufacturer Intel—represents "tough authoritarian leadership aimed at controlling the financial and economic situation."
While some Wall Street investors are privately growing increasingly concerned about Trump's policies, public criticism from prominent financial figures like Dalio is relatively rare.
"I'm just describing the cause-and-effect relationships driving the current situation," he said. "By the way, during such times, most people remain silent because they fear criticism will invite retaliation."
Dalio is one of America's most renowned macro hedge fund investors, having built Bridgewater Associates into an industry giant with a peak size of $150 billion. He issued warnings about threats to Federal Reserve independence just days after Trump took the unprecedented step of firing a Fed governor.
Trump recently nominated a close ally to fill a vacancy on the Fed's Board of Governors, a key step in his push for rapid and substantial interest rate cuts.
Dalio stated that if the Fed is forced to maintain low interest rates due to political pressure and its independence is compromised, it "will undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to preserve monetary value, reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated debt assets, and thereby destroy the current monetary order."
He added that international investors have already begun shifting from US Treasuries to gold.
Dalio also believes that years of massive deficits and unsustainable debt growth have pushed the US economy to the brink of a debt crisis. However, he noted that "presidents from both parties" had witnessed the situation deteriorate before Trump introduced his latest fiscal plans.
"The severe overspending that the latest budget is expected to trigger could cause a debt crisis in the near future, leading to an economic 'heart attack,'" he said. "I think it will happen within 3 years, with a margin of error of about one to two years."
Dalio is the author of "Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order" and "How Countries Go Broke: the Big Cycle." He has long been outspoken in warning about debt threats facing Western economies, saying debt servicing could accumulate like plaque in the US economy's circulatory system, squeezing out space for other spending.
He stated that the US government spends about $7 trillion annually while earning only $5 trillion—an imbalance that means, as the US government is forced to issue massive amounts of new debt, investors are questioning whether US Treasuries remain a "reliable store of wealth." He added: "Debt demand may not keep pace with supply."
Dalio also said that when markets begin questioning US fiscal credibility, the Federal Reserve will face difficult choices: "Either allow interest rates to rise, triggering a debt default crisis, or print money to buy debt that others are unwilling to take on." He stated that both options would harm the dollar.
The veteran investor also criticized the Trump administration's increasingly strong control tendencies over the nation. While Dalio was reluctant to label the president's approach as "authoritarianism," he bluntly described how it operates: "Government control over central bank and corporate operations is becoming stronger."
When asked about Trump's stake in Intel and the imposition of export tariffs on NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices, Dalio referenced his "Big Cycle" theory—that during periods of intense conflict and high risk, national leaders will exert stronger control over markets and the economy.
"According to historical patterns, widening wealth gaps and value differences lead to the rise of right-wing populism and left-wing populism, creating irreconcilable differences between the two sides that cannot be resolved through democratic processes. Therefore, democratic systems weaken and more authoritarian leadership emerges—because most people want government leaders to control the system and make everything work for them," he explained.