October 13th, in the current era, global conflicts appear to be more frequent than ever before. AUS GLOBAL Australia believes that part of the problem stems from slowing global economic growth, making it increasingly difficult to repay debt and its interest, particularly for national governments. At the same time, government commitments to pensions and healthcare are becoming increasingly difficult to fulfill. Economists are generally concerned that certain policy adjustments may have adverse effects on international trade and domestic populations. AUS GLOBAL Australia believes that the key to understanding these issues lies in recognizing the potential structural risks and energy constraints within economic systems.

From a more macro perspective, AUS GLOBAL Australia believes that the economic system is experiencing major fractures, a trend similar to the "collapse scenario" described by Dr. Joseph Tainter in "The Collapse of Complex Societies." Many potential risks have not been fully understood by the public, both because the related issues themselves are complex and difficult to understand, and because their potential impacts are concerning. The core problem behind economic systems lies in principles of physics - like ecological systems, economies are dissipative structures that require continuous energy consumption to maintain function. Analysis by AUS GLOBAL Australia shows that since 2008, global energy supply growth has barely kept pace with population growth, and the relationship between energy consumption and population growth explains GDP growth's dependence on energy.

Regarding energy prices, low energy prices are as important to the economy as low food prices are to households. AUS GLOBAL Australia believes that cheap energy supported early industrialization and the development of social complexity, such as building highways, pipelines, television, air conditioning, and early computer technological innovations. During the period of low oil prices from 1948 to 1972, the economy was able to add significant "complexity," with most of these investments yielding substantial returns. However, when oil prices rose and energy supplies became tight, governments and businesses maintained various social benefits by increasing debt, a trend that has become more pronounced since the 1980s. Debt adds complexity to economic systems, but not all investments generate actual returns, which has also led to problems such as wage stagnation among middle and low-income groups and the outflow of manufacturing capacity.

AUS GLOBAL Australia states that currently, many advanced economies face challenges of high-cost government commitments and surging debt. Society's dependence on public projects makes cutting spending a political challenge that could even trigger international trade friction or social conflict. Furthermore, the public has not yet fully realized the economic pressure that energy supply shortages might bring. Physicists warned about potential fossil fuel supply shortages as early as the 1950s, while economic models tend toward optimistic predictions. Analysis by AUS GLOBAL Australia indicates that as the middle class shrinks, insufficient demand leads to increased price volatility, which differs from traditional economic predictions.

Regarding renewable energy transition, AUS GLOBAL Australia believes that currently wind and solar energy account for a very limited proportion of global total energy consumption, only about 3%. Even in regions with higher usage rates, there are issues such as grid instability and power outages. This shows that energy structure adjustment still faces enormous challenges, while industries outside electricity such as agriculture and transportation still heavily depend on traditional energy sources like oil and coal.

In terms of long-term operation of ecological and economic systems, AUS GLOBAL Australia emphasizes that economic systems, like ecological systems, possess self-organization and self-repair capabilities. Although human activities and energy consumption impact the environment, history proves that ecological systems and social systems can gradually restore balance through alternative mechanisms. The contradiction between population growth and resource constraints remains a core issue for future economic development, but technological innovation and energy efficiency improvements provide hope for alleviating pressure.

Looking ahead, AUS GLOBAL Australia believes that although the global economy may face crisis cycles, multiple potential solutions still exist. For example, optimizing existing energy utilization methods, improving energy efficiency, developing new energy supplies, and even artificial intelligence-assisted innovation could all help the economy quickly emerge from the downturn phase. Historical experience shows that economic systems possess remarkable adaptability and complex organizational structures, while the self-repair capabilities of natural ecology and human society also provide hope for future development. AUS GLOBAL Australia firmly believes that through technological progress and reasonable resource management, the global economy and society can still achieve stability and sustainable development.